 #3 Ohio State 9-0, 5-0 Big Ten Roster | Schedule |
November 16, 2013 12:00 PM ET - ESPN —— Memorial Stadium Champaign, IL —— [Tickets] |
 Illinois 3-6, 0-5 Big Ten Roster | Schedule |
Streaks weigh heavily on teams. For Ohio State, the weight of a 21-game win streak and the chatter that accompanies it can sometimes feel like a giant gorilla. But it’s better than the alternative. That’s the life the Illinois Fighting Illini are eating, breathing and sleeping. Their Big Ten losing streak has reached 19 games, second only to Northwestern’s 38-game losing streak from ’78-’82.
Oct. 8, 2011, was the last time Illinois won a conference games, more than 25 months ago. It happened so far in the past that Ron Zook was the head coach. Tim Beckman, still searching for his first Big Ten victory as head coach – he’s 0-13 – knows the value just one win will have on a program trying to find its footing.
“It’s big. I want these players to get it. It’s not about me,” he said.
The Illini have been a sleeping giant in the Big Ten for decades, good for a top-half finish every so often but plagued by uneven play historically. The 1980s and early 90s represented the high-water mark in recent years for Illinois. It went to nine bowl games, including the Rose Bowl, and beat Ohio State eight out of 12 seasons. But then came a series of lean years, followed by a conference title in 2001, more losing seasons and a Rose Bowl appearance in 2007. Since the championship in 2001, Illinois is 49-93.
After last year’s debacle, it looked like 2013 could be the turnaround year Beckman was searching for. The Illini won three of their first four games with the lone loss coming by 10 points to a good Washington team. But five consecutive losses followed. Now a bowl bid, the ultimate goal and program building block, seems far-fetched. Illinois is 3-6, and while Purdue and Northwestern remain, beating Ohio State is unrealistic.
Just how much emphasis is put on qualifying for a bowl?
“That’s the main focus right now,” said senior linebacker Jonathan Brown.
Opponent Breakdown
One week after Illinois won its last conference game, it hosted Ohio State in Memorial Stadium. The date was Oct. 15, 2011, and Ron Zook and the Illini were riding high in a make or break year. Since that day, Illinois is 6-22.
During Beckman’s 13-game Big Ten string of futility, more than half the losses have come by 20 points or more – 45, 39, 36, 31, 28, 24 and 20 points. It’s reasonable to believe another number will be added to that list sometime Saturday afternoon.
Increasingly, Beckman’s job is becoming a topic of conversation. Many boosters called for athletic director Mike Thomas to fire him a year ago. However, Thomas has pledged his full support toward the maligned Beckman. Another winless season in the Big Ten could be his undoing, though.
Most are surprised when handed the evidence that Illinois’ talent is among the best in the Big Ten. Sixteen players have been drafted since 2008, with 11 of those being selected in the first three rounds, including a conference-best five first-round picks. All that talent has yielded a 33-42 record.
This season, despite a 3-1 start, hasn’t been much different. Defensively, the Illini are one of the worst teams in the country. They’re allowing more than six yards per carry and rank 11th in the conference in total defense. Similar to Purdue, a big detriment is the amount of youth forced to play. Illinois’ two-deep roster features 11 sophomores and just two seniors, which could prove fruitful in the future.
“All I ask of our players is effort,” Beckman said. “Give me effort. Play as hard as you can. That’s what they’re doing. Our players are playing hard against some very good teams, against some teams that, in all honesty, personnel-wise are better than we are.
“We’re playing a lot of young players, and through maturity and through repetition, they’ll get better as it goes.”
One saving grace for Illinois is quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, the catalyst of the nation’s 23rd-best passing attack. After an uneven first three seasons in Champaign, Scheelhaase has thrived in offensive coordinator Bill Cubit’s system. He leads the Big Ten with 2,410 passing yards to go along with 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
At this time a year ago, Scheelhaase had thrown for the same amount of interceptions but 1,100 fewer yards and 11 fewer touchdowns. In 2013, he’s completed 65 percent of his passes. That includes last week’s career performance against Indiana, when Scheelhaase threw for 450 yards and accounted for three touchdowns.
“He’s a great quarterback,” Ohio State cornerbacks coach Kerry Coombs said. “He’s dynamic with his feet. I think he does a great job of extending plays. I think he does a great job of putting them in the right play. You can see him changing plays at the line of scrimmage. He’s not throwing bad balls. He’s throwing to the right guy, on time, versus the right coverage. That’s going to present a big challenge for us. He is obviously well-coached. I think Bill Cubit has done great with their offense. They’re dynamic. We’re going to have play extremely well on Saturday.”
What Illinois doesn’t do well is protect Scheelhaase. The Illini rank in the lower half of the nation in sacks allowed, not the recipe for success when facing an Ohio State team that’s piling up sacks like bricks at the foundation of a house.
Illinois is also prone to turnovers. Entering as a 32-point underdog, the Illini cannot afford to turn the ball over, which they do with regularity – they rank 97th in America in turnover margin.
Armed with a porous rush defense, Illinois’ strategy to slow Carlos Hyde is gang tackling and attempting to disrupt his rhythm, Beckman said. Indiana gained 371 yards on the ground last week, averaging over eight yards per rush. Still, Brown, a linebacker who turned down NFL riches to return for his senior season, is one of the top defenders in the conference. He leads the conference with nearly 10 stops a game and has 10.5 tackles for loss and four sacks to his credit.
Tracking down Braxton Miller and Hyde will be his biggest challenge yet.
“I understand it’s a process of getting better,” Brown said. “It’s not an overnight thing. The success is probably not as fast as people want to see, but it’s on the way.”
Buckeye Breakdown
It was windy the last time Ohio State played at Illinois’ Memorial Stadium. It will be windy on Saturday, and it will likely be windy in Champaign till the end of time. That is nothing new. But what stuck out about the Buckeyes’ 2011 visit was the fact they completed just one pass – and won the game.
Oct. 15, 2011, was a strange day all the way around. Ohio State was 3-3, mired in a season long stretch of turmoil, while the Illini were undefeated. To say a lot has changed would be an understatement.
“I was a young pup, so I grew up from that,” Miller said.
Behind 51 rushes, the Buckeyes won that day, 17-7. Instead of a paltry 3-3 record, Ohio State is 9-0 this season and winners of its past 21 games. Looking back at the 2011 affair, senior offensive lineman Jack Mewhort called the passing statistics crazy.
Miller is in a groove. Expect more of the same Saturday.The first attempt came in the second quarter and the only completion – a touchdown to Jake Stoneburner – occurred early in the fourth quarter.
“Our passing game has evolved so much now and so many guys score touchdowns for us now that one pass is kind of unreal to think about,” Mewhort said.
Head coach Urban Meyer assured that the Buckeyes are in a much different place now offensively and in the passing game. That declaration wasn’t needed, though. It’s quite obvious watching the games. Behind Miller and Kenny Guiton, Ohio State is averaging 230 passing yards per game. The duo has 29 passing touchdowns on the year, four fewer than the program record set in 1995.
Through maturation and coaching, the 2011 version of Miller is unrecognizable only two years after the fact. The improvement started his sophomore year as he was named the Big Ten’s player of the year and finished fifth in the Heisman voting. A three-game absence in 2013 took him out of the Heisman balloting, but he’s still been named a semifinalist for the Walter Camp Award.
“Braxton and the skill guys have come so far,” Mewhort said.
Miller’s last three games include a completion percentage hovering near 80 percent, 707 yards passing and nine touchdowns. Two of those games were resounding victories, triggered by Miller’s offensive efficiency. The mechanics that Meyer and Tom Herman speak of are finally becoming evident every time Miller takes the field.
But it’s not a one-man show. Mewhort and Co. keep Miller upright while opening holes for one of the top running backs in the nation, Carlos Hyde, and on either side of the field, Miller can spot the likes of Philly Brown, Devin Smith and Evan Spencer.
“I know we had a young quarterback [in 2011] and a fairly nonfunctional group of wideouts, so I would imagine you were going to do what we did [last year] and run the quarterback a lot,” Meyer said. “Do what you’ve got to do to walk out of there with a win.”
The game plan will differ drastically on Saturday.
How it Plays Out
Bucknotes: Print. Consume. Get smart.
The reason they play games is because anything can happen. But Ohio State enters its second straight contest with virtually zero chance of losing. Road game, whatever. Illinois is a bad team that will struggle to keep pace with the Buckeyes’ offense and find a rhythm against the defense.
Dominoes have already starting falling for Ohio State, so remaining focused is not part of the equation. The Purdue game was all the evidence one needed for that logic. Meyer’s psychological mastery means the Buckeyes remain a focused bunch.
The Illini’s saving grace is a solid passing attack, they rank 23rd nationally. But as luck would have it, they must face an Ohio State defense and secondary that has made considerable strides in recent weeks. Scheelhaase’s career against the Buckeyes isn’t a record that gives off positive vibes.
The Ohio State offense – Miller, Hyde and the rest of the toys – should have a field day against the Illini’s porous defensive unit. Could Saturday be the day Dontre Wilson finally turns the corner with a breakout performance? Illinois owns one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation, so a wild day from Wilson could be in the offing.
Consider it a good yard work day. You can mow the grass and rake the leaves during the second half.
ELEVEN WARRIORS STAFF PREDICTION: Ohio State 52, Illinois 10
