The Drought is Over
Caleb Downs has Ohio State’s first punt return touchdown since 2014.
The top three teams in last season's Big Ten standings all had significant losses in the offseason. Regardless, the conference is poised to be just as strong next season.
It appeared to be a top-heavy league – led by Wisconsin and Maryland – but Michigan State made their annual run in March, culminating in a Final Four loss to Duke. Overall, seven B1G schools made the NCAA Tournament.
March's "Selection Sunday" success tied a conference record high, set in 1990 and also equaled in 2009, 2011, 2013. If my predictions hold, the Big Ten will again have seven teams in the 2016 tournament. The following are listed in order of their odds to win the national championship, according to VegasInsider.com.
Maryland (12/1)
Critics, including myself, referred to last year's Terps as one of the "luckiest" teams in the country. The math backed that up.
No one denied their talent. Even after losing Dez Wells, Richaud Pack and Evan Smotrycz, Maryland is poised to get some first place votes in the preseason Top 25 standings. Transfers decimated their squad a year ago, but head coach Mark Turgeon exceeded expectations in replenishing it.
Their starting lineup could feature as many as five future NBA players: Trimble, Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon, Layman, Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter and five-star freshman Diamond Stone. The Terps will go small, at times, removing Carter and surrounding the low-post bruiser Stone with four three-point shooters. They're also versatile enough to put Carter at center and have five strong perimeter shooters on the floor.
We shouldn't expect Wisconsin's other-worldly level of offensive efficiency out of next season's Maryland squad. Still, national title expectations are reasonable.
Indiana (17/1)
Last year's Hoosiers were an enigma, combating a hot start to the Big Ten season with long stretches of losing and inconsistent play. As exciting as they were to watch on offense, they were equally as horrifying on defense. Next season may not be much better in that respect.
Opponents will still find it difficult to outscore the Hoosiers, as Yogi Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr., Troy Williams, Nick Zeisloft, Hanner Mosquera-Perea and, basically, anyone who played a significant role on last season's team returns. Defensively, they'll rely heavily on freshman Thomas Bryant and his 7-foot-6 wingspan to alter shots. If he can and IU finds some cohesion with their perimeter defense, Indiana can legitimately challenge for the B1G title.
Michigan State (20/1)
Tom Izzo loses two key veterans from last year's Final Four squad in Travis Trice and Branden Dawson. Like Maryland, MSU will replace them with an experienced transfer and several capable freshmen.
West Virginia transfer Eron Harris is eligible after sitting out last season. He will look to improve on his sophomore season, in which he averaged 17.2 points per game and shot 42 percent from three. Four-star freshmen Deyonta Davis and Matthew McQuaid also add depth to the frontcourt and backcourt, respectively.
Lourawls Narin Jr. will have added pressure on him, as his usage rate is bound to increase. Still, if he minimizes turnovers, the Spartans should still be lethal on offense considering Izzo surrounded potential B1G player of the year Denzel Valentine with solid shooters.
Michigan (40/1)
The staggering losses piled up in the non-conference portion of their season and, by the end of the Big Ten schedule, the Wolverines were just relieved to see their season come to an end.
Michigan was relatively healthy during their early season struggles. The injuries piled up halfway through the season and they stumbled in February, losing five straight.
It would be surprising to see a John Beilein-coached squad struggle for two consecutive seasons. The last time his team went under .500 in conference play for a second straight year was in 2003-04.
Caris LeVert decided to forgo the NBA Draft and, if he's healthy, will challenge for Big Ten Player of the Year. Because of his return, the entire roster remains intact. As we've seen before in college basketball, a winning coach and a squad rife with chemistry can win a lot of games.
Wisconsin (55/1)
For the first time in several years, reasonable is expectations for the Badgers don't include a Big Ten title. That will happen when you lose your two leading scorers.
Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker are both NBA bound, but Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig return. Both provided terrific ball-handling skills and shooting touch, especially for their size. Hayes can be an inside-out threat like Kaminsky, but it's not likely he can handle the ball as much and create for others.
So, the Badgers offense won't resemble their free-flowing dominance of a year ago. It would be unwise to doubt Bo Ryan, though, who hasn't missed the NCAA Tournament since he coached at The University of Wisconsin-Milwuakee.
For you Ohio high school hoops fans: Delaware's Khalil Iverson will arrive in Madison this season, although it would be a surprise to see him play significant minutes his freshman season.
Ohio State (100/1)
The Buckeyes lose a major chunk of their rotation minutes and scoring, but fans are excited about the new faces arriving in Columbus.
Obviously, no one wanted to see D'Angelo Russell leave. Likewise, few wanted to see another year of the 2015 senior class.
This upcoming season is more of a glimpse at the future rather than climbing into Big Ten title contention. Maybe they'll be capable of challenging a team such as Maryland next year or in two seasons, but even the highest expectations for this season include only a shot at a low seed in the NCAA Tournament.
It really depends on the growth of the incoming class and if they can land experienced point guard Sterling Gibbs. If not Gibbs, then a combination of A.J. Harris, JaQuan Lyle and Mickey Mitchell will generate offense for the Buckeyes. That young group may lead to some early-season struggles.
At the same time, their talent level alone should put them in fringe contention for a tournament berth. Jae'Sean Tate will continue to be active on defense and a terror in the open court. Marc Loving, if he can return to early-season form, will be among a deep group of wing players capable of stretching the floor – one that also includes Keita Bates-Diop, Kam Williams and Austin Grandstaff. Interior defense should also cease to be a problem thanks to the length of Trevor Thompson and Daniel Giddens.
With tempered expectations, this upcoming season might prove to be less frustrating than the past two.
Purdue (110/1)
They made a late charge to cement last year's NCAA Tournament spot and, with much of the roster intact, there's little reason to doubt they can do it again.
Purdue's size is something the rest of the conference can't match up with. Much of the conference is embracing a more up-and-down style, but the current Boilermakers group is stuck in the Big Ten of five years ago. It's not necessarily a bad thing, as few teams in the country boast 7-footers who are as talented as A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas. Hammons averaged over 12 points and seven rebounds in conference play, all while shooting nearly 60 percent from the field. Returning junior Rapheal Davis is also a shutdown perimeter player, meaning the Boilermakers could have the best defensive team in the league.
Like Ohio State, point guard play is a concern for Purdue. If Texas-Arlington grad transfer Johnny Hill can replace John Octeus' playmaking abilities, they should be safely in the tournament.
