Over the last several years, the Eastern Seaboard has seen a spike in the number of nationally-targeted prospects. States like Virginia and New Jersey are being targeted by the nation's premier college programs perhaps more so than ever before. While some schools in these states – the University of Virginia, for example – have been able to fend off the national powerhouses, other programs have struggled to keep up.
In recent years, Rutgers has had its share of struggles when it comes to signing New Jersey's top talent. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and other programs from across the country have made things difficult for Kyle Flood and the Scarlet Knights.
The list of New Jersey's top prospects for 2016 should be pretty familiar to Buckeye fans who keep a close eye on the recruiting scene. Players like Rashan Gary and Jordan Fuller have been targeted by Ohio State and virtually every other school in America. Kareem Walker, the nation's top tailback, pledged to Urban Meyer back in January and Jarrett Guarantano was atop the Buckeyes' quarterback board before committing to Tennessee.
Ohio State's interest in Ahmir Mitchell definitely seemed to be off and on while fellow wideout Cam Chambers surprised many when he committed to Michigan State over a year ago. Three of the state's top fifteen prospects have already committed to the Wolverines, and they're in a great spot for the nation's top prospect—Gary—and perhaps even Walker.
Dating Back to Urban Meyer's first full recruiting class (2013), Ohio State has signed three of New Jersey's top-rated players: Eli Apple in 2013, Noah Brown in 2014 and Kevin Feder in 2015. Defensive end Darius Slade, the state's 24th-ranked prospect, also signed with Ohio State in 2014. That number may pale in comparison to the success that schools like Michigan and Penn State have had in the area, but nitpicking about Urban Meyer's recruiting would be rather silly.
One common theme of the Kyle Flood Era? The state's top talent does not want to play for The State University of New Jersey.
| Year | Signed With Rutgers | Other Regional Program | National Program |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 7 (47%) | 3 (20%) | 5 (33%) |
| 2013 | 2 (13%) | 5 (33%) | 8 (53%) |
| 2014 | 0 (0%) | 6 (40%) | 9 (60%) |
| 2015 | 1 (7%) | 8 (53%) | 6 (40%) |
| 2016 | 0 (0%) | 4 (27%) | 8 (53%) |
That is a pretty disturbing trend for fans of the Scarlet Knights. Really it's tough to even give Flood much credit for the 2012 haul. It wasn't until late January that he took over after Greg Schiano headed for Tampa Bay, so he was only the head guy for a few days before signing day rolled around in February.
It actually seems like a lot of these kids are giving Rutgers a chance to impress them. Early on in the process for many of these players, they consistently mention the in-state program as a top contender. It's almost as if they are giving them the opportunity to improve and become a more appealing destination. Players like Guarantano, Fuller, and Steven Gonzalez all seemed to genuinely consider the Scarlet Knights at one point.
Guarantano's father James is a member of the Rutgers Football Hall of Fame and the legacy was long thought to be a lock. His family ties weren't strong enough as the nation's No. 1 dual-threat quarterback is now on track to sign with the University of Tennessee. Somehow this awkward fan-made video wasn't even enough to sway him to New Brunswick.
So what does this all mean for the Buckeyes? There are a few different angles to this. First, the state of New Jersey clearly isn't on lock-down by any particular program. The top talent is certainly fleeing the immediate area, but the state hasn't exactly become a pipeline to any particular program. Meyer has been targeting Jersey and while he hasn't landed a ton of players from the state, it hasn't been for a lack of effort.
Second, this is absolutely turning into a "watch the enemy" type of situation. If Jersey is set to turn into any sort of pipeline, there's a good chance it will be to the University of Michigan. I think many of us scoffed at the idea of Michigan bringing in former Paramus Catholic (Paramus, NJ) coach Chris Partridge as a recruiting operations coordinator, but it has certainly paid dividends thus far. The signing of Jabrill Peppers (albeit under the former regime) looks like it could be the first in a long line of Jersey talent migrating to Ann Arbor.
In the meantime, Buckeye fans will want to keep a close eye on this Walker situation. He's saying all the right things, but the next few months will be interesting to watch. Fuller doesn't seem to be close to making a decision, but Ohio State has been in his top group for a while now. Official visits could very well tell the tale with his recruitment.
As for Flood and the Scarlet Knights? With the scandalous behavior and inability to attract the state's top players, I think it's safe to assume that the clock is ticking.
*Probably goes without saying, but obviously the 2016 class has not signed yet. Currently three of the 15 for 2016—Gary, Fuller, and tight end Jovani Haskins—remain uncommitted.
