Ohio State fans had the opportunity to take in the past week's slate of games while Ohio State was on its second bye of the season. With a probability of zero that Ohio State would lose over the weekend, it made for some fun, care-free viewing.
Five weeks removed from the inexplicable loss to Virginia Tech, this week also found Ohio State fans taking on rooting interests, especially for games in the SEC. The no. 15 team in the country entering the weekend, Ohio State is a darkhorse playoff prospect.
This week's feature exploring what's happening in the SEC, and, in particular, the SEC West. What's happening down south matters a great deal for Ohio State (or even Michigan State, bite my tongue) fans hoping for a playoff berth.
First, let's summarize the week's big games. Mississippi State beat Auburn in a no. 3 vs. no. 2 matchup. No. 5 Alabama defeated Arkansas, 14-13. No. 3 Ole Miss spanked Texas A&M in College Station.
Right now, Mississippi State is the no. 1 team in the country. Ole Miss held steady at no. 3. Alabama is no. 7 in both polls. Auburn is the no. 6 team in the AP and the no. 8 team in the Coaches Poll.
Some of these performances and rankings can be a bit disconcerting, considering that the politicking is already underway.
Freeze, on the polls: "I don't know. But I do think the SEC West should get two in the playoff."
— Ben Garrett (@SpiritBen) October 12, 2014
I'm surprised Hugh Freeze didn't punctuate that sentence with a "Roll Tide".
I interpret a four-team playoff with two SEC teams, let alone two from the SEC West, as a scenario with no Big Ten teams. Florida State should go undefeated and, barring total mayhem, the Big XII should get its conference champion into the playoff if that champion has just one loss on the season.
My interpretation of the results in the SEC West follow. First, I think Misssissippi State beating Auburn is a best-case scenario for Ohio State/Michigan State fans. I'm still not sold on Mississippi State as something greater than a delightful and enjoyable fluke.
Both its signature wins against Texas A&M and Auburn came at home. Mississippi State travels to upstart Kentucky after a bye this week. It will host Arkansas, which is no slouch, the week thereafter. Two of its final three games are at Alabama and Ole Miss.
In short, a win for Mississippi State on Saturday should be fine because I still think there are two losses remaining on its schedule.
That said, Auburn has the toughest stretch of games of anyone in the SEC West, but I think the quality of its team is greater than Mississippi State and it would have been apparent on a neutral field. Auburn still has to visit Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama, but I'll accept the loss here as an optimistic Ohio State fan.
Ohio State fans really needed Arkansas to pull off a win against Alabama. One-loss Alabama is going into the College Football Playoff and, cynically, I think the playoff is in place to give Alabama whatever number of mulligans Nick Saban feels his program needs. A two-loss Alabama is harder to justify as a playoff participant.
Alabama hosts Texas A&M on Saturday and visits Tennessee the week afterward. After a bye, Alabama plays at LSU and finishes with a three-game homestand of Mississippi State, Western Carolina, and Auburn. Alabama might win out.
Likewise, Ole Miss manhandled Texas A&M in College Station on Saturday night when a Texas A&M win would've been preferable. It'll be mostly home cooking for Ole Miss going forward. It hosts Tennessee, Auburn, Presbyterian, and Mississippi State. The only road trips left are to LSU and Arkansas. The game at Arkansas will be Arkansas' home finale.
In what follows, I provide some (quasi-)realistic scenarios whereby the SEC sends just one team into the playoff or, better yet, none. None of these scenarios are necessarily discrete.
The Big Ten may need to call in a favor from an old friend to place a team into the College Football Playoff.
Arkansas wins out. I'm sold on what Bert is doing in Fayetteville. I think the Hogs have shown they can hang with anyone and are getting better each week. What's missing for Bert is a signature win to instill some kind of confidence in the Razorback players that they can finish games. The Razorbacks haven't won an SEC game in almost two years.
If Arkansas wins out, it will include wins over Georgia, Mississippi State, LSU, and Ole Miss. At 3-3 on the season, Arkansas is your "chaos team" in the SEC. Swallow your pride and root for Bert. All else equal, Arkansas causing mayhem in the SEC West going forward should exponentially raise the probability of everyone in the SEC having at least two losses.
Georgia loses one more game and wins the SEC Championship Game. To this point, I've said nothing of the Georgia Bulldogs. I assume they are the odds-on favorite in the SEC East and will fail to win the SEC Championship Game. If Georgia drops its upcoming game at Arkansas, or loses at home to Auburn, it should still be in prime position to win the SEC East. If so, hope it wins the SEC Championship Game to follow.
This scenario assumes, somewhat reasonably, that the SEC West champion has a loss somewhere on the record.
Alabama finishes 5-1 in its next six games. A one-loss SEC West team not participating in the SEC Championship Game is going into the playoff. This is common knowledge. Alabama, in particular, needs another loss somewhere to save us all an upset stomach. Preferably, Alabama wangs one of its next three games (vs. Texas A&M, at Tennessee, at LSU), but sweeps its SEC homestand against Mississippi State and Auburn.
Alabama does not control its own destiny in the SEC West but, paradoxically, no other team quite controls its destiny for a berth into the playoff like Alabama.
Ole Miss has to lose in an upset. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are both undefeated and will, at this rate, play each other in a regular season finale that decides the SEC West. However, the greater concern is Ole Miss because Ole Miss' tough games are all at home this year. Mississippi State visits Ole Miss in that aforementioned Egg Bowl and still plays at Alabama.
Ole Miss should be considered a tentative favorite to win the SEC West and the rest of its regular season games. Hope it screws up somewhere, like at LSU or at Arkansas.
Taken together, assume Arkansas finishes 5-1, including wins over LSU and Ole Miss at home (but a loss to Mississippi State at Starkville). Alabama stumbles at either LSU or Tennessee, but remains undefeated at home. Auburn wins the remainder of its home games, upsets Georgia, but loses road games at Ole Miss and Alabama. Ole Miss wins the remainder of its home games.
Ignore, for the moment, anything Georgia does in the SEC East and any unforeseen upsets. In this scenario, one-loss Ole Miss wins the SEC West. Two-loss Georgia wins the SEC East, assuming another Missouri loss somewhere on the schedule (e.g. to Arkansas, our designated chaos team). Alabama and Mississippi State are second and third in the SEC West, but both have two losses. Auburn has three losses. In short, all three may be effectively eliminated from the playoff.
In this scenario, the SEC is sending at most one team into the College Football Playoff and possibly none if Georgia could upset Ole Miss. The SEC could feasibly eliminate itself from the playoff and pave the way for a one-loss Big Ten team to grab one of its spots.
This is admittedly optimistic conjecturing, but optimism will have to carry the day for Ohio State fans and Michigan State fans hoping to squeeze into the first ever College Football Playoff with one regular season loss.
