Poll Watch: Ohio State Loses More No. 1 Votes

Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.

Ohio State Loses More No. 1 Votes

Ohio State is still the No. 1 team in the AP Poll, though it lost some of the cushion between itself and the AP No. 2 team. Previously separated from No. 2 Alabama by 100 points last week, the Buckeyes are just 75 points higher than the new No. 2, Michigan State.

Most of this follows Ohio State losing 16 first-place votes to three different teams. Michigan State, which gathered two No. 1 votes last week, acquired five more this week. These came from Brett McMurphy, Gary Horowitz, Joel Klatt, Joey Knight, Laura Keeley, Marc Weiszer, and Pete DiPrimio.

Curiously, none of these seven No. 1 votes for Michigan State carried over from last week. Both of Michigan State's No. 1 votes last week (Doug Lesmerises and Jon Wilner) voted for Ole Miss at No. 1 this week. Ole Miss was the week's big winner, picking up 11 No. 1 votes overall.

Finally, LSU got a lone No. 1 vote from Mitch Vingle. This discussion excludes Daniel Berk, who did not cast a ballot this week.

Ohio State fans can interpret the Buckeyes' dwindling lead on the AP No. 2 in two ways. For one, much of the movement at the No. 1 spot across voter ballots may have almost nothing to do with Ohio State. Michigan State picked up two No. 1 votes for beating then-No. 7 Oregon. Ole Miss rocketed to No. 1 on 11 AP ballots for beating then-No. 2 Alabama in Tuscaloosa. AP voters make for great illustrative examples of recency effects in a cognitive psychology textbook on cognitive biases.

Ohio State's non-conference schedule includes that road win at Virginia Tech, which is aging well, and three cupcakes. Ohio State will not be able to keep pace with much of these signature wins until much later in the season. However, Ohio State fans already knew that.

Two, Ohio State just is not playing as well as it should be, given the preseason expectations. I don't think that's a controversial statement. Interestingly, the Buckeyes do appear to be getting the benefit of the doubt. Consider that the Buckeyes are still No. 1 by 75 points and that Michigan State is the AP No. 2 team. 

Imagine that happening this time last year.

How Far Did Alabama Fall?

Alabama was the week's big loser, falling from the AP No. 2 to the AP No. 12. 

I found this tumble quite surprising. Recall that Alabama fell from No. 3 to just No. 7 after last year's loss in Oxford, Miss. It fell just three spots from No. 1 in 2013 for the loss at Auburn and fell just three spots from No. 1 again for the loss at home to Texas A&M in 2012.

In other words, no other college football program is entitled to one free mulligan in the eyes of public opinion quite like Alabama. However, the voters did not have any of it this time around.

Ed Johnson may best exemplify the belief that Alabama is entitled to one free mulligan among the current AP voters. He dropped Alabama from No. 2 on his ballot last week to No. 6. Eric Hansen has the Tide at No. 7 on his ballot. Both, unsurprisingly, have Ole Miss as their No. 1 team this week.

Others chose to punish Alabama for a sloppy game in a year in which it is expected to be "rebuilding." Steve Layman, Doug Lesmerises, and John Shinn have Alabama at No. 15. Sam Werner has Alabama at No. 17, the lowest position for the Tide on any ballot.

Northwestern, Stanford, USC: An Exercise in Transitivity

I typically have the most fun looking at ballots near the bottom of the Top 25. This week's ballot highlights a fun exercise in transitivity. 

Consider: Northwestern beat Stanford, 16-6, to start the season. On Saturday, Stanford beat USC in the Coliseum by 10 points. Therefore, Northwestern is better than Stanford, which is better than USC.

This is not how it worked in the AP Poll, though. Northwestern is the AP No. 17, two spots over USC. The Trojans, which just lost by 10 points in Los Angeles to Stanford, is ranked four spots higher than AP No. 21 Stanford.

The Coaches Poll actually adds even more confusion to a simple transitive ranking based on wins against mutual opponents. The Coaches Poll has USC at No. 18, Northwestern at No. 19, and Stanford at No. 24.

How did the AP voters handle this issue? This table summarizes all combinations of rank among Northwestern, Stanford, and USC observed in the voter data. Only Ed Daigneault and Scott Wolf's ballots are dropped for missing data (i.e. having only one of the three teams ranked). Daigneault has USC at No. 16 and has Northwestern and Stanford unranked. Scott Wolf has Northwestern at No. 18 and both Pac-12 programs unranked.

Fifty-eight percent of the ballots got transitive rank correctly, though some of the ballots that did not square with this head-to-head win-based ranking were quite interesting. For example, Brian Howell's ballot features the largest difference between USC over Stanford in any ballot cast this weekend. He has USC at No. 11 and Stanford at No. 25. His ballot also features Northwestern at No. 24.

Other Peculiar Observations

• Auburn has a No. 18 vote (Bob Asmussen), a No. 21 (Steve Batterson), and a No. 24 (Scott Wolf). These are Auburn's only appearances on any AP ballot.
• John Adams and Dave Reardon have Ohio State at No. 5, the lowest ranking for the Buckeyes on any ballot.
• Michigan State's lowest rank came on Gary Smits' ballot. He has the Spartans at No. 7.
• Ole Miss nabbed 11 first-place votes, but there is considerable heterogeneity for the Rebels in the voter data. Joey Knight has Ole Miss at No. 10. Ole Miss also has two No. 8 votes and two No. 9 votes.
• The highest vote for any team not in the AP Top 25 is a No. 13 vote for West Virginia (Nathan Deen). Next highest is No. 16 for Tennessee (Ed Johnson).
• I think I found the conference homer ballot.

You kids want to see what a conference fanboy's ballot looks like? pic.twitter.com/jZJDlLzG5o

— Vico (@ourhonordefend) September 20, 2015