Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data even now with the College Football Playoff committee releasing its late season rankings. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Ohio State's Reign at No. 1 Ends
Ohio State started the season as the first-ever consensus preseason AP No. 1 team. Eleven weeks into the season, Ohio State is now No. 2. Clemson leapfrogged the Buckeyes after its 23-13 home win over Florida State, ending the Seminoles' three-year ACC Championship run.
Fans may interpret this as a fire sale on Ohio State after an unconvincing win against Minnesota. That's not quite what happened. Ohio State lost just five points overall from last week. The AP voters just really wanted Clemson at No. 1.
A preliminary look into the voter data revealed a couple patterns. At the most, Ohio State fell just three spots on any given ballot. That happened to be on Sam McKewon's ballot. He had Ohio State at No. 2 last week and at No. 5 this week. Every other voter that did vote Ohio State down the ballot from last week moved Ohio State from No. 1 to No. 2, ostensibly to make way for Clemson.
In fact, Ohio State shot up several ballots. Ross Dellenger moved Ohio State from No. 5 to No. 2. Brett McMurphy, among Ohio State's most prominent midseason critics in the AP, even moved Ohio State from No. 6 to No. 3.
So, what happened? Clemson basically consumed spots on the ballot previously given to programs like Louisiana State, Texas Christian, and Michigan State. All three teams lost on Saturday. Baylor also slid down several ballots, losing 57 points from last week as it moved from No. 2 to No. 4 in the AP.
Clemson basically took their votes and not necessarily Ohio State's votes, even if Ohio State lost 12 first-place votes from last week. Even then, those first-place votes became second-place votes to make way for the Tigers.
Why Clemson and Why Now, Though?
Illustrating how Clemson jumped Ohio State as the new No. 1 does not answer why the AP voters jumped Clemson over Ohio State. More importantly, why now?
This section should not be misinterpreted as complaining about the end of Ohio State's run as AP No. 1. The timing is just curious.
Consider that the Atlantic division of the ACC is, by some metric, the second best division in college football. However, the Big Ten East is the third best. I question whether the difference between the two is a function of the ACC Atlantic being top-heavier than the Big Ten East. Beyond Clemson and Florida State, the ACC Atlantic features programs like Boston College, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, and Wake Forest that do not meaningfully contribute to the quality of football in the division.
In other words, the "strength" of the ACC Atlantic is almost entirely a function of Clemson and Florida State. Meanwhile, the Big Ten East boasts Michigan and Penn State (albeit with important non-conference losses) in addition to the reigning national champion and defending Cotton Bowl champion.
Clemson's schedule to date is highlighted by wins against Appalachian State (which has just one other loss, suffered last week) and Notre Dame (which has not lost another game). Ohio State's strength of schedule is not as good in comparison. However, those wins and that schedule-to-schedule comparison are old news by this point for AP voters.
Clemson's win against Florida State was a quality win, and even something of a backdoor cover against a team that was a double-digit underdog in an ACC game for the first time in history. However, it was not a blowout or anything that AP voters typically like to see when they react in ways like this.
So, what's really happening? I'm not saying that there might be some type of elite-driven communication where AP voters are taking cues from the College Football Playoff's rankings and conforming their ballots to better square with the committee in order to look either prescient or out front with the playoff poll.
However, I am thinking it loudly and now I'm curious how I can go about tracking such a thing if it is happening.
OKLAHOMA STATE CRASHES THE TOP 5
Clemson's the new No. 1 but it was not the big winner in the polls this week. That goes to Oklahoma State, whose home rout of previously undefeated Texas Christian jumped Oklahoma State up 377 points from No. 12 last week to No. 5 this week.
Some jumps were substantial. For example, Brett McMurphy had Oklahoma State at No. 14 last week. This week, he jumped Oklahoma State to No. 2 on his ballot. John Adams had the exact same movement for Oklahoma State from last week to this week. Chadd Cripe, likewise, moved Oklahoma State from No. 13 to No. 2. Sam Werner gave Oklahoma State its final No. 2 ranking this week. He previously had the Cowboys at No. 13.
However, some responses were more measured. Eric Hansen has Oklahoma State at No. 11 this week, moving the Cowboys six spots from No. 17 last week.
Other Peculiar Observations
I didn't think Jon Wilner's ballot merited its own conversation this week, given the other items. However, here's his ballot compared to the AP consensus for a quick comparison.
Jon Wilner vs. the AP consensus, Week 11. pic.twitter.com/FqhE293EfH
— Vico (@ourhonordefend) November 8, 2015
Ed Johnson is responsible for Alabama's other No. 1 vote.
Iowa appears at No. 4 on Jim Polzin's ballot. Get ready for December 31st, Hawkeye fans.
Ole Miss appeared on nine ballots this week. Don't drink and vote, kids at home.
