Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Hard to Say Anyone Won or Lost in College Station
The most entertaining game of the weekend may have been the double overtime contest in College Station. The game had its usual Tennessee flair in which the Volunteers mounted a furious second half comeback, complete with improbable breaks, to force the game to overtime. The magic stopped abruptly when Josh Dobbs threw an interception to start the Vols' drive in double overtime, sealing the Aggies' win.
This week's poll saw the Volunteers slide from No. 9 to No. 11. The Aggies are now the AP No. 6, up two spots from last week.
Put another way, it's not clear the game mattered at all for the rankings.
Texas A&M rose two spots, but Louisville was on a bye and Houston lost at No. 6 above it. The Aggies picked up just 89 points from last week. Likewise, the Volunteers feel two spots but lost just 83 points overall from last week.
That's effectively a wash. It's a wash consistent with how pundits and observers handle losses in the SEC. Everyone gets a mulligan. The Aggies are no more front-runners than they were previously and the Volunteers could easily make the playoff if they run the table.
It's a bit frustrating that such an exciting game will have effectively no bearing on the college football season to follow. We can only hope other conferences like the Big Ten and Pac-12 will get that kind of treatment soon enough.
Houston Still in the New Year's Six?
Houston's loss at Navy was arguably the story on Saturday. Forget a repeat in the New Year's Six; Houston could have challenged for a playoff spot with wins over Oklahoma and Louisville, annihilation on its American Athletic schedule, and the good graces from last season's Peach Bowl win over Florida State. That seemed over after Navy secured the upset in Annapolis.
All else equal, Houston's loss and status as "Group of Five" team should lead it tumbling down the AP Poll. However, Houston had been ranked so high and voters were that enamored with its possibility that Houston would have needed to fall further than most Group of Five teams do after a loss.
This means Houston is the new AP No. 13 while Boise State, still undefeated, is the AP No. 15. Houston got a benefit of the doubt that most Group of Five teams don't get.
This might become an uncomfortable conversation if the playoff committee rankings reflect the Associated Press. Houston could secure a nice win at home against Louisville, win everything else, and enter the New Year's Six over an undefeated Boise State team.
It would be our first major controversy of the new playoff format having nothing to do with the composition of the four-team playoff.
Is Nebraska Really a Top Ten Team?
One of Week 6's quiet winners didn't even play on Saturday. By virtue of major losses by Houston, Miami, and Tennessee, the Cornhuskers are now in the AP top 10 for the first time since 2011 (i.e. that period when college football still thought Taylor Martinez and Bo Pelini were good ideas).
This raises the important question whether Nebraska really is one of the top 10 teams in the country. To say its schedule has been favorable would be an understatement. It had just one road game so far, against a Northwestern team that had already lost to an FCS squad and a MAC team.
Oregon, which already has four losses, was its marquee non-conference game. The Huskers won that game in Lincoln by just three points. No. 4 Washington, by comparison, beat Oregon in Eugene by seven touchdowns.
All told, Nebraska's opponents are a combined 10-18 in 2016 so far. Nebraska may be a top 10 team but it does not have a top 10 résumé.
To be fair, the AP voters seem to be treating Nebraska with some caution. Its movement from last week was gradual and no voter is showing a great affinity for the Cornhuskers' potential so far. Its highest votes come from Matt Galloway and Steve Wiseman. Both have Nebraska at No. 7.
Other Peculiar Observations
- The AP Poll says hello to the MAC for the first time this season. Western Michigan is the No. 24 team in the country. Its highest vote is a No. 16 vote from Keith Sargeant.
- Auburn's ranked, for reasons. Mitch Vingle even has Auburn at No. 12 on his ballot.
- Florida State won big in the polls. It rose nine spots and gained 398 points from last week.
