Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Three Big Ten Teams in the Top Five
Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin landed at No. 2, No. 3, and No. 5 in this week's AP Top 25. The last time that happened was in 1960 when No. 1 Minnesota, No. 3 Ohio State, and No. 5 Iowa were in the Nov. 7 poll that season.
This will assuredly change after Saturday's game between the Buckeyes and the Wolverines but the votes for all three suggest a strong consensus among the AP voters that they belong in the top five. Ohio State has 1,455 points, albeit no change overall from last week. The Buckeyes are No. 2 in all but six ballots.
Michigan has 1,370 points, 23 points ahead of No. 4 Clemson. Voters almost all believe Ohio State is the No. 2 team in the country though more are split whether Clemson or Michigan is No. 3. That said, Michigan is lower than No. 4 on just five ballots.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin rose from No. 6 to No. 5 with Louisville's loss on Thursday. It gained 44 points from last week and tops No. 6 Washington by 35 points. It's ranked lower than No. 6 on just seven ballots. Incidentally, all seven of those ballots have Wisconsin at No. 7.
In the penultimate week of the regular season, the Big Ten achieving a feat last accomplished in 1960 still says good things about the league overall.
| Team | Rank | Points | Highest Vote | Lowest Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | No. 2 | 1,455 | No. 2 (55x) | No. 5 (Josh Kendall) |
| Michigan | No. 3 | 1,370 | No. 2 (3x) | No. 9 (Josh Kendall) |
| Wisconsin | No. 5 | 1,255 | No. 2 (Josh Kendall) | No. 7 (7x) |
How Far Louisville Fell
Louisville probably had the worst week of any program in college football. Charlie Strong may get fired for a loss to Kansas that has not happened to Texas football since 1938. UCLA and Notre Dame went from pre-season top 25 programs to bowl-ineligible.
Still, Louisville lost big in Houston, significantly altered Lamar Jackson's trajectory as Heisman fait accompli, and watched Clemson rout Wake Forest to secure a berth into the ACC Championship Game in lieu of Louisville.
Put another way, Louisville's season is basically over until the bowl game. It could help itself with a big win over Kentucky to cement its chances at a New Year's Six bowl game, but that's all that remains for Louisville.
Voters finally sold their stock in Louisville like I predicted they would gradually do as Clemson barred Louisville from the ACC Championship Game and, effectively, the playoff. Louisville fell from No. 3 to No. 11 even as a few voters were more forgiving than others. Matt Galloway and Ed Johnson each gave Louisville No. 8 votes. the highest spot for the Cardinals in any one ballot. Ed Daigneault and Jon Wilner have Louisville at No. 9 as well.
Others more aggressively dumped their stock in Louisville. Louisville has three No. 16 votes (Steve Batterson, Scott Hamilton, Keith Sargeant) and two No. 17 votes (Gary Horowitz, Scott Wolf). All had Louisville in the top five last week. Scott Wolf even had Louisville at No. 3.
You're Doin' Fine, Oklahoma
Two blue blood programs, Oklahoma and USC, had woeful starts to their seasons. Both are now arguably the two hottest teams in the country.
We'll focus on Oklahoma in this Poll Watch because the Sooners are curiously a threat to secure a playoff berth. This sounds almost insane. It lost by double digits to Houston, a Group of Five team with high expectations itself that failed to match them in October. Ohio State, a playoff team right now, routed the Sooners in Norman.
Those two losses should've scuttled the good ship Oklahoma. Yet, Oklahoma has run off eight straight wins. It's won four straight by double digits. It scored no fewer than 34 points in any game in that stretch.
Thus, Oklahoma seems like a playoff team if Clemson, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and Wisconsin all divide by zero in the next two weeks. Oklahoma right now appears from No. 3 to No. 6 in 21 of the 61 ballots cast in the AP Poll, nominally "playoff range." It has a No. 3 and No. 4 vote from Andy Greder and Josh Kendall. It appears at No. 5 on seven other ballots, ostensibly a playoff substitution in the eyes of these voters for the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game.
Whether this seems appropriate given Oklahoma's non-conference schedule and the crummy status of the Big XII is a topic for the comments section. Still, Oklahoma could back-door its way into the playoff for the second straight year.
Other Peculiar Observations
- Josh Kendall's top ten again makes no sense. He has two-loss Wisconsin at No. 2 and two-loss Oklahoma at No. 4. One-loss No. 5 Ohio State beat both on the road.
- There's some interesting dissent about No. 12 USC. Patrick Brown has the Trojans at No. 5. Josh Kendall and Sam McKewon have USC at No. 6. Brett McMurphy has USC off his ballot altogether.
- Andy Greder has LSU at No. 13. Drop that to the median vote LSU got among those that had LSU in a ballot (No. 23) and Stanford would be the No. 25 team in the country. LSU would fall to No. 27.
