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Points Allowed: The Ohio State Effect Through 14 Games

Matt Gutridge's picture
January 5, 2015 at 9:35pm
18 Comments
Hopefully Ducks' fans will be leaving disappointed Monday night.

Hopefully Ducks' fans will be leaving disappointed Monday night.

Apologies to those who read this before it went to Blog Heaven.

Oregon enters the National Championship Game with several statistical strengths. The Ducks are ranked in the top 20 in the following 10 statistical categories.

  1. Rushing Offense (17th)
  2. Offensive 4th Down Conversions (17th)*
  3. Punt Returns (12th)
  4. Passing Offense (11th)
  5. Offensive 3rd Down Conversions (4th)
  6. Total Offense (3rd)
  7. Scoring Offense (2nd)
  8. Offensive First Downs (2nd)*
  9. Turnover Margin (2nd)*
  10. Team Passing Efficiency (1st)*

As you can see above, every statistical category that Oregon excels in is offensive. Stop the offense and you stop the Ducks.

*I did not track this stat with the Ohio State Effect in 2014.

Below you will see what the Buckeyes' offense did to opponents and their Points Allowed stats. The teams are listed in order of their Points Allowed Average entering the game. Teams with the lowest Points Allowed Average entering the game are listed first.

Note:
Negative (-) numbers are good for Ohio State
Positive (+) numbers are bad for Ohio State

3 Things

  1. Ohio State's offense has obliterated opposing defense's points allowed stats all season. The Buckeyes' 42 points against Alabama was over 25 points more than the Tide's average allowed.
  2. Ohio State had the largest difference against Kent State (- 46.0) and Wisconsin (- 42.2). The Badgers had the 4th ranked Points Allowed defense and left with the 13th best after facing Ohio State's offense.
  3. Indiana's defense held the Buckeyes' offense to the lowest point difference (- 8.4).

Last week I stated:

If the average holds, Ohio State should score at least 40 points against Alabama.

If the average holds against Oregon, Ohio State should score at least 45 points against the Ducks.

 

Ohio State's Effect On Opponent's Points Allowed Stats
Team Avg. Before Ohio State Points Allowed Against OSU Difference Rank Before Rank After
Virginia Tech 9.0 21 - 12 21st 27th
Penn State 15.2 31 - 15.8 6th 9th
Alabama
16.6 42 - 25.4 4th 6th
Wisconsin 16.8 59 - 42.2 4th 13th
Maryland 19.8 52 - 32.2 31st 66th
Kent State 20.0 66 - 46.0 50th 102nd
Michigan State 20.3 49 - 28.7 22nd 41st
That Team 20.6 42 - 21.4 21st 28th
Minnesota 21.3 31 - 9.7 23rd 28th
Rutgers 21.7 56 - 24.3 42nd 65th
Oregon
22.3 ----- ----- 27th -----
Navy* 24.4 34 - 9.6 40th 88th
Cincinnati 29.0 50 - 21.0 # #
Indiana 33.6 42 - 8.4 104th 106th
Illinois 34.4 55 - 20.6 104th 111th
           
Average 21.6 45 - 23.4 36th 53rd

 

*Navy before stats based on 2013 season.
# Like a dope I did not record Cincinnati's rank for Points Allowed.

 

The 2014 Buckeyes totally dominated opposing defenses. Every defense's Points Allowed stats were demolished by Ohio State's offense. If you are an opponent of Ohio State it has to be frustrating knowing that the Buckeyes on average will score 45 points.

Below is a compilation of the average season stats of the teams Ohio State played in 2014. To get a fair comparison for the "Ohio State Effect" I removed the points Ohio State scored against the opponent and divided the total by the number of games played through 1-4-2015. 

 

The Ohio State Effect When Compared to Opponent's 2014 Stats
Team Season Avg. Without Ohio State Points Ohio State Scored Difference
Alabama
16.6 42 - 25.4
Penn State 17.6 31 - 13.4
Wisconsin 17.9 59 - 41.1
Michigan State 19.2 49 - 29.8
Virginia Tech 20.2 21 - 0.8
That Team 20.6 42 - 21.4
Oregon
22.3 ----- -----
Minnesota 23.6 31 - 7.4
Kent State 25.3 66 - 40.7
Cincinnati 25.3 50 - 24.7
Navy 26.7 34 - 7.3
Rutgers 28.1 56 - 27.9
Maryland 28.4 52 - 23.6
Indiana 32.0 42 - 10.0
Illinois 32.3 55 - 22.7
       
Averages 23.8 45 - 21.2

 

When the season stats are taken into account, Ohio State's first two games of the season are the least productive in points scored differential. As the season progressed the differential continued to widen. 

Who would have guessed Ohio State would put 42 points on Alabama? Perhaps Tom Herman is out to prove he is a deserving winner of the Broyles Award.

It's On.

 

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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