XICHIGAN WEEK
Ohio State blows out Indiana, 38-15. Now, it's time to do the same to That Team Up North.
No team had a more difficult opening to the Big Ten season than Ohio State.
That's what the metrics say, anyway.
Through six conference games, the Buckeyes' have the No. 1-ranked strength of schedule, according to KenPom.com. Four of Ohio State's first six games were played away from Columbus and, after losing their first four games of conference play, the Buckeyes sit at 2–4 in the league following Wednesday's last-second win at Nebraska.
Things now are a bit more manageable for Ohio State.
In this year's Big Ten, the only sure thing is that there are no sure things. The teams traditionally at the bottom of the conference — save for Rutgers — are all improved and the teams at top of the league aren't as dominant as previous seasons. There are a lot of middle-of-the-road teams this year.
So while there aren't any guaranteed victories on the Buckeyes' upcoming schedule, there are quite a few toss-ups that many would see as winnable. Ohio State has back-to-back home games against Northwestern and Minnesota before a road trip to Iowa. And after that game against the Hawkeyes, the Buckeyes host Maryland.
| DATE | OPPONENT | LOCATION | KenPOm Projected W/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 22 | Northwestern | Home | L, 70–69 |
| Jan. 25 | Minnesota | Home | W, 69–68 |
| Jan. 28 | Iowa | Away | L, 78–77 |
| Jan. 31 | Maryland | Home | W, 71–68 |
That means three of Ohio State's next four are at Value City Arena. For a two that currently sits two games below .500 in league play looking to get back into the conference race, it's a critical point in the season.
Exactly how winnable are the Buckeyes' upcoming games, though? The metrics say all four are about as close to toss-ups as can be.
KenPom projects scores for every game played in college basketball while it additionally attaches percentages tied to a team's odds to win each game. It's far from perfect, but it's usually a pretty good indication of what to expect in a particular matchup.
Each of Ohio State's next four games is projected by KenPom to be decided by one possession — three points or fewer. Games against Northwestern, Minnesota and Iowa are projected to be one-point outcomes while KenPom thinks the game against Maryland will be decided by three points. Ohio State is projected to win two of the four with losses coming against Northwestern and at Iowa.
So, yeah, these games figure to be close.
And that's why this upcoming stretch is so important for Ohio State. The 0–4 start in Big Ten play all but eliminated the margin for error in conference play. The Buckeyes need to win their toss-up games from here on out.
A couple of weeks ago, after losses in close games against Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota, that didn't seem like a possibility. But after recent victories in down-to-the-wire matchups against Michigan State and Nebraska, perhaps Ohio State learned how to finish down the stretch.
A lot can happen between now and March 4 — the day the Buckeyes wrap up their regular season at home against Indiana. But make no mistake about it: If Ohio State wants to get back into the NCAA tournament discussion, it all starts Sunday against Northwestern.
The Buckeyes are about to enter their most critical stretch of the season.
