Wins on the road in Big Ten play are hard to come by.
Ohio State has better than a puncher's chance to earn one Saturday night.
The Buckeyes travel to Iowa for an 8 p.m. matchup against a Hawkeyes team that has lost three games in a row. For Ohio State, it's another game filed in the "must-win" category. The Buckeyes need quality wins on their resume, sure, but they also can't afford to lose to non-NCAA tournament teams — even if the game is on the road.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa (11-10, 3-5 B1G) | Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa) | 8 p.m. | ESPN2 |
"It’s definitely important," junior forward Jae'Sean Tate said Friday. "Iowa is very good at home, a very good competitor at home and they’ve beaten some of the top teams in the league."
"Where we’re at right now, our room for error is very, very tight. We’re going to go in there, give it everything we’ve got and just build on this last game and try to get better today in practice.”
Saturday's contest at Carver-Hawkeye Arena is the only meeting of these two teams scheduled during the regular-season.
Let's break down the matchup between Ohio State and Iowa a little further.
Opponent Breakdown
With four starters gone from last year's team, this season was always going to be a rebuilding one for Iowa. The Hawkeyes had a preseason All-Big Ten player in Peter Jok, but outside of him, there were a lot of unknowns.
A four-game losing streak in the nonconference saw Iowa start the season 3-5, but the Hawkeyes rattled off five-straight wins to enter Big Ten play with an 8-5 mark. But after starting Big Ten play 3-2 — with wins over Michigan and Purdue — Iowa dropped three straight and currently sits at just 11-10 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten, the same league record as Ohio State.
Jok leads the Big Ten in scoring as the senior forward averages 21.0 points per game. That number dips a bit in conference games, however, as Jok enters Saturday averaging 18.4 points per game in the league. Iowa's only other double-figure scorer is freshman forward Tyler Cook, who averages 11.9 points per game.
The Hawkeyes rank just 96th overall in Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings — second lowest in the Big Ten — and are 68th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (110.1 points per 100 possessions) and 152nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (103.2 points per 100 possessions).
Jok will be the main focus for Ohio State, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be as he battles an ongoing back injury that seemed to hamper him a bit in Iowa's last game against Illinois.
The Hawkeyes lost that one on the road against the Illini by 12 and also fell to Maryland and Northwestern during this current three-game skid.
“They’re a completely different team at home, obviously, by 3-1 [record] in the Big Ten at home," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said. "I think Jok, obviously, has the capability of going completely crazy if he’s making shots. They do a great job of moving him around."
"They’re a young basketball team but you can tell they haven’t changed a lot of what they’ve done in the past. It just seems they’re getting more comfortable with who they are and who each other are.”
Buckeye Breakdown
Ohio State played one of its better halves of the season against Minnesota before almost collapsing in the final three minutes. The Buckeyes built a 17-point first-half lead that was quickly trimmed to five thanks to a 12-0 run by the Gophers to end the opening 20 minutes.
The lead was never squandered by Ohio State, but the Buckeyes, once again, found themselves in a one-possession game at the final media timeout. This time, however, Ohio State found a way to win down the stretch.
The result was the Buckeyes' third win in their last four games after that disastrous 0-4 start to Big Ten play. Now, Ohio State finds itself right in the middle of a jumbled Big Ten.
"We've just got to continue to do what we did, build on what we did against Minnesota," freshman wing Andre Wesson said. "We didn't play our best basketball so we've got to continue to build on that."
Trevor Thompson was once again huge for Ohio State in the win over the Gophers as the junior big man notched his seventh double-double of the season with 19 points and 10 rebounds. Thompson's improvement from last season to this one has been one of the biggest storylines of the year. He should have a significant edge inside against the Hawkeyes, too, as Iowa doesn't necessarily have anybody over 6-foot-9 in its regular rotation.
At times this season, Ohio State's offensive lapses have come back to haunt it. The Buckeyes hope to eliminate those against the Hawkeyes.
“Same thing that we’ve seen the last couple years," Matta said. "They’re going to play a 3-2 zone, they’re going to play man-to-man. They’ve got their halfcourt, three-quarter court traps that they use. It’s a matter of whatever they throw at us, we’ve got to know exactly what we’re doing and get the best shot we possibly can.”
How It Plays Out
It feels like we write the same thing in this section for every Ohio State game because, well, we sort of do. Because of the way the Big Ten works this year, nearly every game involving the Buckeyes seems to come down to the final four-to-eight minutes.
Ohio State needs to find a way to win this one, but which team will show up? That's a question that's simply cannot be answered right now.
KenPom, once again, projects this game as a virtual toss-up and gives the Buckeyes a 51 percent chance of victory and projects a one-point win for the visitors.
Jok's health remains a big question mark and if he's not his usual self it seems like Iowa will have a difficult time winning the game. Ohio State struggles on the road, though, as most teams do in the Big Ten, so it's hard to pick the Buckeyes here no matter the opponent.
Tim's prediction: Iowa 72, Ohio State 70
