Expect an Even Bigger Buckeye NFL Draft Class in 2016

It's not as though Ohio State was lacking in talent – OSU has dominated the Big Ten in recruiting for the last 15 years – but some people might have been expecting more draftees from the national champions.

Five Buckeyes in all were taken in the 2015 draft: Devin Smith, Jeff Heuerman, Doran Grant, Michael Bennett and Evan Spencer. None was a first rounder, although Smith was taken early in the second round. It's unusual for a championship team; the last national champion not to produce a first rounder the next year, as has been much bandied about, was Ohio State in 2003.

But wait! one might say, that's not giving the whole picture! And that would be true: some teams are backloaded in talent. The following year, in the 2004 NFL draft, Ohio State produced three first rounders and an incredible 14 draftees. Similarly, the 2014 national champions will have an incredible display of talent next year.

Several Buckeyes are widely considered to be draft locks in 2016. In one mock draft, Joey Bosa is the top overall pick, with Cardale Jones going sixth, Ezekiel Elliott 11th and Taylor Decker 12th. Michael Thomas, Vonn Bell and Darron Lee have also been considered as first rounders.

All draftees flatter a school's development record, but first rounders are especially important. They are the most likely to become All-Pros, and the ability to point to NFL veterans is a valuable enticement when schools are recruiting.

I wanted to see how many first rounders Ohio State could expect from the 2015 team, so I took the previous decade of national champions (from 2004 USC to 2013 Florida State) and determined how many first rounders each team produced in the next two drafts; for instance, Texas produced four first rounders in the 2006 and 2007 drafts. There were 35 first rounders in all; of those, 11 became All-Pros.

Alabama's three championship teams led the way, with the 2012 team having seven first rounders. USC, Texas and 2008 Florida each had four, 2006 Florida and FSU had three, and LSU and Auburn had two.

Ohio State would need a several first rounders in 2016 to meet the average; five would tie the school record for most first rounders in one year, and six would tie Miami's draft record.

Those aren't the only Buckeyes to consider, though. Adolphus Washington and Eli Apple would be chosen if they enter the draft, and four others (Braxton Miller, Joshua Perry, Nick Vannett and Tyvis Powell) would stand a good chance of being drafted. Depth is another talking point for recruiting, and backloading of next year's potential draft class is where Ohio State could set a new mark.

Looking again at the last ten national champions, we find that five of ten teams produced more draft picks two years after the championship game. In fact, on average more players were selected in Year Two (6.9) than Year One (6.4). In some cases, the number of draft picks doubled or even tripled. Ohio State could do much the same.

Besides those named I count another eight players (Corey Smith, Jacoby Boren, Chase Farris, Joel Hale, Camren Williams, Pat Elflein, Jalin Marshall, Dontre Wilson) who are unlikely to enter next year's draft or are long shots, but could sneak into the draft or latch on as undrafted free agents.

That makes 21 players – a quarter of Ohio State's 2015 squad – who could contend for the NFL next year.

True, Ohio State will not have a draft class that large. Some players will declare early and leave holes in the roster, but others (most likely the redshirt sophomores) will stick around.

The point is this: no matter how many players are selected in next year's NFL draft, Ohio State is recruiting and developing players at a phenomenal level. Whether nor not the Buckeyes win the national championship with heaps of talent in 2015, the program is clearly doing something right on both ends of talent production.