Urban Meyer has a reputation as a coach who isn’t afraid to roll the dice and go for it on fourth down. Throughout his coaching career, Meyer has had some stellar offenses so maybe he doesn’t view it as a gamble, or maybe he hates field goals or—I can’t believe I’m saying this about a B1G coach, but—punts! (Gasp!)
I wanted to see if Meyer’s reputation was earned, so I took a look back at several years’ worth of fourth down data.
By way of comparison, I went back to the Jim Tressel years and grabbed his final three seasons. Tressel, in direct contrast to Meyer, is known as a friend to punters and a conservative head coach. I also looked at the Luke Fickell season in between to see if there was any notable difference between Fickell’s style and Tressel’s.
What I discovered is that Tressel was remarkably consistent his final three years. He averaged fewer than one fourth-down conversion try per game over his final three seasons in Columbus, going for it nine times in 2008, nine times in 2009, and 10 times in 2010. He’s like the Swiss watch of people, our Tress.
Tressel’s 2008 and 2009 squads each converted 4/9 (44%) fourth downs. That’s Old Faithful-style consistent. But in 2010, a year in which he had one of his most prolific offenses at Ohio State, Tressel’s bunch converted 8/10 (80%).
In 2011, Luke Fickell took over, and as a young coach who grew up under Tressel’s tutelage, his numbers were about what you’d expect. Fickell’s 2011 team went for it on fourth down 12 times, converting six (50%). This doesn’t necessarily mean that Fickell is slightly more of a gambler than Tressel. Fickell’s teams were behind a whole lot more than any of Tressel’s final three squads. That could easily account for a couple more attempts.
So, Urban Meyer walked right in and the fourth down tries immediately went up, right? Not so fast, my friend! [/Sends royalty check to Lee Corso.]
Meyer’s first team in Columbus went a perfect 12-0. Along the way, they tried to go for it on fourth down just nine times—a Tresselian total if ever there was one. Meyer’s group converted seven times, though, for a 78% success rate. So, at least Meyer’s few attempts in 2012 were more successful than his two predecessors over the previous four years.
But that was just the Buckeyes’ first season under the Urban Meyer system. They obviously didn’t have everything installed yet and players were still getting up to speed, because my how things changed in 2013.
That year, the Buckeyes went for it 22 times on fourth down, more than doubling any of Tressel’s final three years and, in fact, Meyer’s first season in Columbus. Ohio State converted 14 of those 22 attempts (64%).
Last season, Meyer’s team again attempted 22 fourth-down conversions. This time the Buckeyes converted 13 times (59%), failing to build on the previous season’s great numbers. But they did save the best for last, going 3-for-3 in the national championship game against Oregon. They attempted at least one fourth-down conversion in all but three games (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Alabama) and converted one in all but five (the previous three, plus, surprisingly, Maryland and Illinois—0/2 in both).
Interestingly, Meyer’s decisions were virtually unchanged between having reliable kicker Drew Basil, and inconsistent freshman Sean Nuernberger on the sidelines.
But how did Meyer compare to other coaches this season? Was Ohio State at the forefront of going for it on fourth down? Well, no, but the Buckeyes were among the leaders in conversion attempts.
Three Big Ten coaches dialed up plays for their offenses on fourth down more in 2014 than Meyer. Leading the way was Purdue Head Coach Darrell Hazell, who went for it 31 times. The Boilermakers converted 12 times for a 39% success rate. Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald was next, converting 14/29 (48%) last season.
But you’d expect teams that trail a lot like Purdue and Northwestern to have more attempts, as they try to find their way back into games. That was somewhat true in the B1G East as well, with Indiana trying 20 times.
So who was the third coach to dial up more offensive plays on fourth down than Meyer? Believe it or not, it was Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes attempted 23 conversions, making good on 14 of them, for a 61% success rate. Other top Big Ten teams like Wisconsin (14/18) and Michigan State (9/17) went for it a comparable number of times.
So maybe Meyer isn’t the riverboat gambler he’s made out to be, unless he’s being compared to guys like Jim Tressel.
