The College Football Playoff rankings don’t officially matter until the final set is released Dec. 6. We’ll get a good peek into the committee’s mind Tuesday night, however, when the first set of rankings are released.
It’s important to remember that these rankings are completely fluid and will change week to week. Ohio State, TCU and Baylor, for example, have extremely backloaded schedules and will not get the benefit of those schedules until later in the season.
Last year’s first set of rankings included three teams from one conference in the top four. Last season’s national champion, Ohio State, found itself all the way down at No. 16 in the original set of rankings.
It will be a bit easier to predict the rankings each week from here on out once we get a look at how the committee is thinking after the first set is released Tuesday, but where is the fun in that?
Again, these don’t matter yet. But they’re still fun to talk about. Don’t get outraged if your team isn’t where you want it to be on Nov. 3. There’s going to be a lot of change from this week to next week especially with games like TCU-Oklahoma State, Florida State-Clemson and LSU-Alabama on tap for this weekend.
But without further adieu, here is Tim’s Top 12. This is a look at how I think the committee will rank the teams Tuesday night, not necessarily my top-12 teams in the country.
The Top Four
1. Clemson (8-0)
2. LSU (7-0)
3. Michigan State (8-0)
4. Ohio State (8-0)
On The Bubble
5. TCU (8-0)
6. Baylor (7-0)
Next In Line
7. Florida (7-1)
8. Iowa (8-0)
9. Notre Dame (7-1)
10. Alabama (7-1)
11. Stanford (7-1)
12. Oklahoma State (8-0)
Some quick notes:
It would be very surprising to me if Clemson and LSU were not the top two teams in either order Tuesday night. Each has a key win — Clemson over Notre Dame and LSU over Florida — that are simply unmatched by anyone else in contention for a top-four spot at this point.
Michigan State and Ohio State have fairly similar resumes at this point with the big difference being the Spartans’ road win over a two-loss Michigan team the committee will likely have somewhere in the 15-20 range. I could see these teams being flip-flopped with the Buckeyes at No. 3 and the Spartans at No. 4, as well, but I just think the Michigan win ranks Sparty slightly ahead of Ohio State at this point in time in the committee’s mind.
TCU and Baylor are on the outside looking in at this point for the simple fact each has a poor strength of schedule at this point. Each team plays a very difficult November schedule and if either team wins out it will find itself in the top four by the end of the season.
I’m sure we all agree on this list, right?
