Eleven Warriors has run two tale of the tape analyses of recruiting rankings for its two biggest matchups this season. The analysis of Oklahoma's recruiting vis-a-vis Ohio State implied the game would not be close. It wasn't. The comparison with Michigan suggested Harbaugh's program was closing the gap with Ohio State for on-field talent. It is and Ohio State fans saw that in the double-overtime contest.
The tale of the tape with Clemson tells a story similar to the Michigan feature. The overall balance favors Ohio State on the recruiting trail, but Clemson has closed the gap in the past two recruiting cycles. Clemson also recruits well where its strengths are most apparent on the field: defensive line and wide receiver.
Clemson fans consider the the 2014 Orange Bowl win over Ohio State to be a program-vindicating win that has propelled the Tigers on the recruiting trail over competing options in its vicinity (e.g. Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee). The table to the right suggests that.
| Indicator | Clemson | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| 2014: 4-stars (5-stars) | 10 (0) | 15 (1) |
| 2015: 4-stars (5-stars) | 9 (3) | 14 (1) |
| 2016: 4-stars (5-stars) | 12 (1) | 17 (1) |
| 2014: Top-100 Prospects | 2 | 10 |
| 2015: Top-100 Prospects | 6 | 6 |
| 2016: Top-100 Prospects | 6 | 7 |
| 2014: Overall Rank (Score) | 17 (240.66) | 3 (296.06) |
| 2015: Overall Rank (Score) | 9 (277.24) | 7 (277.78) |
| 2016: Overall Rank (Score) | 11 (271.54) | 4 (289.12) |
Clemson's 2014 recruiting class, signed a month after its win over Ohio State, was meager by its most recent standards. The Tigers signed just the 17th-best recruiting class in the country. This was only marginally better than South Carolina's class (No. 19) and worse than its two biggest competitors in the region, Georgia (No. 8) and Tennessee (No. 7).
This 19-member class, 12 recruits smaller than what Ohio State signed that same year, does feature players that will factor prominently into the game in Glendale. Deshaun Watson was the class' highest-ranked player. He was also a player Ohio State pursued vigorously even though Watson was an early Clemson commitment. Artavis Scott, the class' second-highest-ranked player, starts at wide receiver. Kendall Joseph and Taylor Hearn, both three-stars, are current starters. Justin Falcinelli, C.J. Fuller, Jabril Robinson, Cannon Smith, Trevion Thompson, Richard Yeargin appear on the depth chart from that same class.
The 2015 class was a triumph for Clemson's recruiting efforts and indicative of the effect implied by the 2014 Orange Bowl as marquee win for Dabo Swinney's program. The class featured an astounding three five-star players. Two of those three five-stars are starters. Mitch Hyatt started as a true freshman tackle on last year's national championship runner-up team. Christian Wilkins starts at defensive tackle. Both were incidentally recruited by Ohio State aggressively before choosing Clemson. Deon Cain, the other five-star, is a back-up wide receiver with 621 receiving yards and nine touchdowns this season. Clelin Ferrell and Van Smith, both four-stars from that class, start on defense.
Clemson fans will celebrate its 2016 recruiting class for Dexter Lawrence alone, if for no other reason. The five-star defensive tackle was a first-day starter. He's fourth on the team in tackles and TFLs, and second in sacks. Sean Pollard, a four-star, starts at right tackle. Tremayne Anchrum, Tre' Lamar, Trayvon Mullen, John Simpson, and K'Von Wallace also appear on the depth chart as true freshmen.
The position breakdowns tell a story that mostly favors Ohio State. Ohio State signs more four-stars and five-stars at almost every position. This is perhaps most pronounced at defensive back, which is curious given how stellar Clemson's passing defense has been this year. Ohio State signed seven four-stars or five-stars to its secondary from 2014 to 2016. Clemson signed just two four-star or five-star defensive backs. Those players, Mark Field (2015) and Trayvon Mullen (2016), are both backup corners on the roster.
| Team | QB | RB | WR | TE | OL | DL | LB | DB | ATH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
We can understand some of these disparities by reference to class size. Consider that Clemson signed 19 players in 2014, 24 players in 2015, and 21 players in 2016. Ohio State, by contrast, signed 31 players in 2014, 26 players in 2015, and 24 players in 2016. The raw counts will favor Ohio State because Ohio State signs more players as cushion for four-stars and five-stars that do not meet Meyer's expectations once they enroll.
However, Clemson compares well to Ohio State at two positions. It has actually signed more top talent at wide receiver than Ohio State did over the same stretch. Fans who have watched Clemson closely will see the difference this makes. The Tigers have arguably had the best wide receiver stable in college football over the past five years. It pays careful attention to filling the roster with the best available talent and trains them well when they arrive on campus.
Clemson's receivers are sure-handed and excellent down-field blockers. Even the walk-on in that group, Hunter Renfrow, is a matchup nightmare as Alabama fans may remember from last year's national championship game. They are a large reason why Clemson is both capable at running the ball even with a mediocre tailback while possessing the No. 7 passing offense in the country. This holds even though Clemson's pass/run ratio is much smaller than programs, like California and Texas Tech, ranked higher than it in passing offense.
The Tigers also signed six four-star or five-star defensive linemen from 2014 to 2016, matching Ohio State's haul over that same period. All came in the 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes that serve as Clemson's reward for a program-defining win over Ohio State. Three of those signees, prominently Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins, are currently starters at defensive line while Carlos Watkins (a 2012 signee and redshirt senior) fills out the first-team defensive line. Albert Huggins, a sophomore, is Watkins' back-up.
The boon has been apparent for Clemson's defense, which is second in the ACC in total defense and leads the league in scoring defense. The Tigers are second in the ACC in sacks and lead the conference in tackles for loss. Watkins was the only Tiger on the first-team defense at defensive line though Lawrence and Wilkins are second-team players.
Clemson will field the most explosive team Ohio State has played this season to date. It will also field arguably the most talent. Clemson has stockpiled some of the best talent in the country on the heels of its 2014 Orange Bowl win over Ohio State, which vindicated the program Dabo Swinney had turned around since the 2011 ACC championship campaign. Ohio State fans will see the difference at both wide receiver and defensive line. Clemson has arguably the best wide receiver corp in the country and may rival Michigan for the best opposing defensive line on Ohio State's schedule.
The tale of the tape favors Ohio State elsewhere. Some of that comes from how lopsided Ohio State's 2014 recruiting class is compared to what Clemson signed a month after both played in the Orange Bowl. Ohio State's overall "numbers" advantage may be a bigger explanation as well. Ohio State signed more top talent because it signed more players overall. Clemson may have the most bang for its buck, but Ohio State fans will hope that numbers advantage will bode well for the Buckeyes in Glendale.
