Oklahoma's Recent Recruiting Efforts Pale in Comparison to Ohio State's Success under Urban Meyer

Fans circled the upcoming game against Oklahoma ever since it appeared on the schedule more than 10 years ago. It might be the biggest non-conference mid-season attraction for Ohio State since the USC series from 2008 to 2009. Programs like Miami (2010, 2011) and Virginia Tech (2014, 2015) generated enthusiasm, but Ohio State fans no doubt looked at both these programs (certainly Miami at that time) as below Ohio State's tier. Oklahoma is a different animal altogether.

Ohio State fans see Oklahoma, a participant in last year's playoff, as on Ohio State's level. It brings in the same kind of talent that USC did when the Buckeyes and Trojans last played seven years ago. Ohio State fans do not get to see many programs that they think can match the Buckeyes on the recruiting trail.

It may surprise Ohio State fans to learn that Oklahoma is decidedly not on Ohio State's level on the recruiting trail. The Buckeyes have been recruiting at a torrid pace since Urban Meyer arrived in 2012. Oklahoma, meanwhile, has not kept pace with the national heavyweights.

Consider the last four recruiting cycles (2013-2016) as 247 Sports' indicators evaluate them to see the divide between the Buckeyes and the Sooners on the recruiting trail. Ohio State has signed more than double the number of four-stars as Oklahoma overall. The 2013 recruiting class that Ohio State fans will celebrate forever gave Ohio State 19 four-stars. Oklahoma, in that same cycle, signed just six four-stars. Ohio State signed more than twice the number of four-stars Oklahoma did in both 2014 and 2016.

Only the 2015 recruiting cycle saw a small gap between both programs. The Buckeyes signed 14 four-stars to Oklahoma's 10. Ohio State, though, signed a five-star prospect (Justin Hilliard) while Oklahoma, which used to sign as many three five-stars in a given recruiting class ten years ago, signed no prospect of that caliber.

The comparison is even more lopsided on the metric of top-100 players signed in a given class. Ohio State signed 33 top-100 prospects from 2013 to 2016. Oklahoma signed just six. That is as many top-100 players over a four-year period as Ohio State signed in the 2015 recruiting class, a relative "down year" on the recruiting trail by Ohio State's standards.

Recruiting analysts, especially those who see the cynical logic behind "oversigning", will reiterate the importance of singing as many four-star or top-100 prospects as possible. Assume for simplicity that every four-star or top-100 player has the same probability of failing to realize his potential in college football. The surest way to minimize these losses is to sign more and better prospects to ensure numbers necessary to round out a depth chart with great players.

Here, Oklahoma has put itself behind the eight-ball when prospects do not pan out for one reason or the other. Keith Ford (No. 24 prospect in 2013) transferred to Texas A&M last May. Cody Thomas (No. 103, 2013) left the football program to focus on baseball. Justice Hansen (No. 150, 2014) transferred to a community college after a year in Norman. These are just a few examples. Ohio State has numerous transfers from its recruiting classes over the years as well. However, Ohio State is better positioned to fill holes on the depth chart from these losses because of the high number of four-stars and top-100 prospects it signs in a given year. Oklahoma is not as well-positioned as the Buckeyes, or as the Sooners were in the past.

The primary focus draws attention to how well the Buckeyes recruit relative to the Sooners and that Ohio State fans may be surprised to learn the Sooners are not recruiting at the same level as the Buckeyes. Why Bob Stoops' program has not been recruiting as well as it had in the past or as well as other national powers is of more interest to Oklahoma fans, but it deserves some mention here.

Oklahoma fans would probably not challenge the claim that Bob Stoops' recent recruiting classes have not been as good as they were in the past. Crimson & Cream Machine noted this was a problem in 2013 and identified the 2007 recruiting class as a turning point. The 2007 class had an uncharacteristically low (for that time) No. 14 overall ranking per Rivals and a featured a "failure" rate of 53%. The problems continued in 2008. The failure rate for that class was 67% even if that class was No. 6 overall (Rivals). The 2011 Oklahoma recruiting class featured a dropout rate of almost 50% before the start of the 2013 season. Oklahoma has been recruiting uphill ever since.

Regional competition has also increased for Bob Stoops. Oklahoma State is more viable now than it was when Bob Stoops was recruiting against Les Miles in Stillwater. For example, Oklahoma State signed the No. 1 and No.3 prospects in the Sooner State in 2016. The best Oklahoma did was the No. 5 prospect (Jon-Michael Terry, a three-star). Oklahoma is still the flagship program in the state but Oklahoma State's recent success and investment in its football program have made it harder for Oklahoma on the recruiting trail.

Baylor may also have hurt Oklahoma at the margins of its recruitment efforts. Baylor's rise in the Big XII is one of the bigger stories in the 20-year history of the conference. Oklahoma and Baylor have not typically recruited the same kind of prospects even during Baylor's status as nouveau riche, but there is overlap. The Bears did court good players like Andrew Billings, K.D. Cannon, Corey Coleman, and Jarrett Stidham into its program. All had offers from Oklahoma.

The bigger story might be Texas. The Lone Star State is an important pipeline for Oklahoma football. Bob Stoops had recruited it well in the past, but has struggled recently. Incidentally, this downturn in recruiting Texas occurs at the same time the Texas Longhorns, Stoops' major competition for talent, fall from the ranks of the college football elite.

Observe the table that tallies the number of Texas prospects Oklahoma signed since 2004, which happened to be an insane recruiting haul for Oklahoma that also featured Adrian Peterson. Oklahoma signed three top-10 prospects from Texas in 2004 and 2005. It averaged 1.75, or almost two, top-10 prospects from Texas from 2004 to 2011. It has signed just one top-10 prospect from Texas since 2012. That happened to be Keith Ford, the aforementioned running back who transferred to Texas A&M last May.

By comparison, here are the programs that have recruited as well or better than Oklahoma in getting the top talent from the Lone Star State. Texas leads all with 13 prospects. This is unsurprising no matter Texas' sagging fortunes on the gridiron since 2010.

Texas A&M is second with eight prospects. This is also unsurprising since it's an in-state program, but do note that Texas A&M has been a major thorn in Oklahoma's side since it left the Big XII for the SEC. It also hired Kevin Sumlin, an ace recruiter, during that transition. Those two moves gave Texas A&M an advantage over Oklahoma in recruiting Texas. The Aggies' move to the SEC in particular made it easier for programs like Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss to recruit Texas prospects as well.

It's more concerning for Oklahoma fans that programs like Ohio State and Stanford have recruited the top Texas talent better than Oklahoma in this time frame. Oklahoma's recruitment of Texas in the past five years is on par with Florida, Florida State, UCLA, and USC. This should be concerning because these four programs from talent-rich hotbeds only dabble with Texas. They need it far less than Oklahoma, but have equal success in recruiting top talent.

Oklahoma fans will add a caveat to this interpretation of Texas' importance. Bob Stoops appears to have recognized the greater difficulty in recruiting Texas when its doors opened to the SEC. Instead, Stoops has shifted to a more national focus. The Sooners had recent success recruiting prospects from California and Florida. Eric Striker was a great player for Oklahoma and seems to vindicate these efforts. The top two players in Stoops' 2015 recruiting class even came from Canada (Neville Gallimore) and Virginia (Ricky Deberry). However, Stoops' attempts to offset losses in Texas have not manifested in the overall recruiting rankings that Oklahoma fans enjoyed a decade earlier.

Ohio State fans have long anticipated the matchup between the Buckeyes and the Sooners as a measuring stick for an Ohio State program that recruits as one of the top programs in the country. It does not see many peers in the middle of the season, and almost never out of conference before a bowl game.

It may surprise Ohio State fans to learn Oklahoma has not matched Ohio State's torrid pace on the recruiting trail. The Sooners will host the Buckeyes and are right now a touchdown favorite over an Ohio State squad that has to replace a lot of players who left for the NFL.

However, Ohio State has better positioned itself on the recruiting trail to compensate these kind of losses. Oklahoma's ability to do the same pales in comparison to its heights on the recruiting trail a decade ago.