Sitting at a perfect 5-0 and ranked No. 2 in the land following a 38-17 decision over Indiana, your Ohio State Buckeyes are headed to Madison to take on 8th-ranked Wisconsin in a primetime showdown Saturday night.
We discussed a few of the keys to the game during our inaugural Eleven Warriors Live event via Facebook last night and today we bring Tim, Vico and Kevin onto the scene with their thoughts heading into the big game.
Gentlemen, the floor is yours.
The fact Curtis Samuel recorded just nine touches against Indiana was a chief topic postgame. Urban Meyer admitted Samuel needs more opportunity and vowed to rectify the situation. So what will ultimately happen? Will Samuel see more touches versus Wisconsin and if so, what’s the sweet spot and exactly how will the staff get the ball in his hands?
Tim: I'd be surprised if he didn't touch the ball at least 20 times against Wisconsin, and I also think Ohio State will come out early on its first drive looking to establish Samuel in some fashion. I think he needs it anywhere between 15-20 times per game for the Buckeyes' to be at their best offensively and I'd be stunned if he didn't at least reach that number against the Badgers.
Vico: Ohio State fans bemoaned a lukewarm offensive showing against Tulsa, which Ohio State followed with a blood-letting of Oklahoma's defense in its next game. I think we'll see something similar in Madison. Samuel should get his touches, likely working to exploit the edges of Wisconsin's defense.
Kevin: Look, if Curtis Samuel doesn't get more than nine touches on Saturday I'll drop out of Ohio State. There's just no chance he'll be underutilized again like he was last Saturday. I don't even think that's something to be concerned about. It's hard to give a "sweet spot" because so much of the offense comes down to what the defense is allowing, but I guarantee it'll be more than nine touches.
As far as how he'll get involved, that's also tough to say given his versatility. But I wouldn't be shocked to see him take a lot more snaps in the backfield as a traditional running back. Designed handoffs guarantee him touches; reads and passes don't necessarily.
A key matchup this week will be Ohio State’s rush offense, ranked No. 1 in the B1G with 323 yards per game, against the league’s best rush defense (90 ypg). Last week, J.T. Barrett had way too many carries against Indiana (26 to be exact) as Meyer and staff fell into the old habit of being over-reliant on the quarterback. Will things be different in Madison this week? How often will Barrett be deployed this week? What kind of game do you expect from Mike Weber?
Kevin: If Wisconsin keys on other things and lets J.T. Barrett run, give him 26 carries again. I don't have a problem with Barrett running the ball a lot, I have a problem with him running the ball excessively when it's not working and other things are (read 2015 Michigan State). Against Indiana, Barrett evidently forgot how to throw the football and clearly had lots of room to run, so he took it. Sure, maybe Curtis Samuel or Mike Weber could lighten his load, but if Barrett's legs turns out to be what's working on the road against the nation's No. 8 team, it would be idiotic not to let him win the game in the name of limiting his carries.
Vico: I think so. Both will probably meet in the middle. Ohio State won't get its season average to date, but Wisconsin will concede more than what it has allowed so far. Weber won't get 100 yards, but he'll have a decent game as Ohio State shows more versatility than it showed last week. Barrett should have 12-17 carries.
Tim: Wisconsin has the best rushing defense Ohio State has played thus far, but the Badgers also haven't seen an offense schematically like the Buckeyes' yet. The Badgers have played in three big games already — against LSU, Michigan State and Michigan — and all three of those teams run pro-style offenses.
Ohio State's is not that, obviously, so it'll be interesting to see how Wisconsin matches up. I think the Buckeyes will find success on the ground, though, like they usually do and I'd expect to see 10-15 carries for Samuel, 15+ for Weber and 10-15 for Barrett, as well. It should be much more balanced, but if things are tight down the stretch Meyer will go back to Barrett in the running game like he usually does.
Through the air, Ohio State stunk out loud versus Indiana as Barrett completed just 9 of 21 throws for 93 yards with a touchdown and a pick. How many times will Barrett air it out this week and what kind of success will he have? Is there a particular receiver you think Ohio State might try to feature against the Badgers?
Vico: He'll have to throw it 20-25 times. I think he'll complete it about 15 times. Ohio State will probably want to feed Noah Brown more against the Badgers. Both starting corners for Wisconsin are kind of diminutive.
Tim: The number of attempts will probably be similar, somewhere between 20 and 25, but Barrett has to complete more passes. I think this game ends with Ohio State completing 15 or so balls through the air and I'm interested to see how Noah Brown performs being that he's been almost invisible the last two weeks after that huge game against Oklahoma.
Kevin: To quote Urban Meyer, "J.T.'s fine." I think Ohio State is going to make a point to air it out on Saturday, and I don't expect them to have much trouble doing it. As Meyer said, if Barrett connects on two or three of those deeper passes, we're probably not even talking about this right now. I think last Saturday was more or less a fluke of bad games from a few players, and the Buckeye air attack will return in a big game.
Historically, Wisconsin has been a program that loves to pound the football but this year the Badgers are averaging just 161 rush yards per game, good for 8th in the B1G. How big of a key is it for Ohio State to stop Corey Clement and the Wisconsin rushing attack this weekend? How will they fare and which players do you expect to do the heavy lifting?
Kevin: According to the defensive players we've talked to, stopping the run is always key, and will be again Saturday. With that, I think we'll see a huge game from Raekwon McMillan. With Wisconsin's pro-style, iso-running offense, I think this is the sort of game he racks up a lot of tackles. On Monday, a reporter asked him if he could see himself having a 20-tackle game on Saturday. He of course gave a political answer, saying "I'd rather have two tackles and them not score a touchdown." But he also knew Ryan Shazier's single-game tackles record (21) off the top of his head... Makes you think, for sure.
Tim: That's going to be Ohio State's game plan going in: Load up the box to stop Clement and make Wisconsin's freshman quarterback beat you with his arm. The Buckeyes have been pretty successful stopping the run this year so I don't think Saturday will be much different. Wisconsin is going to struggle to move the ball on Ohio State.
Vico: Everything goes through zone running for Paul Chryst. Stopping Clement, no matter his meager numbers so far, will be the key for Ohio State's defense. Look to the interior of the defensive line, especially Michael Hill, to be tasked with plugging holes so the linebackers can clean up. Minus a few breaks against Indiana, I thought they did well in that regard.
Through the air, the Badgers have largely been hot garbage with Bart Houston and then Alex Hornibrook combining for less than 200 yards a game with six touchdowns against seven picks. Considering how Ohio State’s pass defense has looked, should we expect the Silver Bullets to load up to stop the run and dare Wisconsin to throw? How do you see this matchup unfolding?
Vico: Yes, and it favors the Buckeyes. I can see the possibility of Wisconsin beating Ohio State on Saturday, but the possiblity that it's a shootout seems remote. The Badgers lean heavily on a quality defense to keep games within reach. That matchup favors Ohio State.
Kevin: That's pretty much exactly what they'll do – stop the run first. The defensive players have been adamant all year that stopping the run is the first priority. To quote Sam Hubbard, "We have to stop the run before we even have an opportunity to attack the quarterback, so we have to focus on stopping the run and making them throw the ball." After that, it'll be up to the secondary to ball-hawk and make plays, and they will. I think we see a defensive score Saturday night.
Tim: I pretty much answered that above, so yeah, I'd fully expect that to be Ohio State's game plan. The Buckeyes' defensive backs have proven themselves to be vicious ballhawks in the secondary, so I think they're going to go after Hornibrook's passes and create some turnovers.
It’s hard to believe but after Saturday night the Buckeyes will have reached the halfway point of the regular season. Through five games who would you list as Ohio State’s most underrated player and why?
Kevin: I'd bet about $12.60 that Tim is going to say Robert Landers, so I'll steer clear of him and give somebody else some love. I'm going to go with Jamarco Jones. He was one of just two offensive players to grade out as a champion last week, and he's really been solid, especially as a first-year starter. I think offensive linemen are often under appreciated by fans, but he's been fantastic thus far.
Tim: I'll say it's Tyquan Lewis. He was really good last year and he's been really good again this season yet he doesn't seem to garner a ton of attention from many. He's a complete defensive end and a vital part of Ohio State's success.
Vico: I rather like the combo wide receiver play from Parris Campbell and Terry McLaurin. I know that's two guys instead of the one for which you asked in the question, but I like that they're doing yeoman's work in the run game and on special teams.
Along that same line of thought, through five games which player has stood out as not meeting expectations? How confident are you that player will improve as the season continues to unfold? Why or why not?
Vico: For the most part, everything is going great for, lest we forget, the AP No. 2 team in the country that has won every game it's played this season by at least three touchdowns. To answer the question: I had high hopes Michael Hill would at least be pretty good on the inside of the defensive line. I don't think he's any better than "okay" and I'm not sure he can be. Ohio State rotates guys inside that position as much it can I think to kind of hide him. I'm not sure he'll get that much better either. He's a redshirt junior and might be about as good as he can be.
Kevin: Honestly, Noah Brown. It's hard to say that when the dude set an Ohio State record for touchdown catches in a game three weeks ago, but other than that he's been relatively non-existent. It may be an unfair expectation, especially given how run-heavy this offense has been, but I expected dominating performances from him more often. I think he's the type of player who could go off any given day, though, so I wouldn't be shocked if he had a huge game Saturday night.
Tim: I think most of Ohio State's players have actually exceeded my expectations being that the team looked more impressive through five games than I thought it would. If I had to pick a guy, though, I'll go with Damon Webb. Gareon Conley, Marshon Lattimore and Malik Hooker have all stood out to me in the secondary the first five games; Webb really hasn't much. Again, I don't think Ohio State has a "weak link" or anything like that, but Webb just hasn't jumped off the page like the rest of the secondary to me.
Ohio State enters the game as a 10.5 point favorite after the line opened around nine. Will the Buckeyes cover? Give us your final score and game MVP prediction.
Tim: At the end of the day, I think Wisconsin is a pretty good team, but its inability to score will haunt it in this one. I think the Buckeyes just have too many athletes on their offense, too, so I wouldn't be shocked if this was a lopsided win for Ohio State.
For a final score, though, I'll say Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 16. That might be a high point total for Wisconsin, too. I just don't know how the Badgers score.
Vico: I'm normally bearish on game predictions in these features, but I like the Buckeyes in this. I'll say 27-10, Ohio State. MVP goes to J.T. Barrett and Raekwon McMillan on offense and defense.
Kevin: 38-17 Buckeyes. Madison is quite the environment and some sorcery could happen, but I just think Ohio State has a much better team on both sides of the ball. My MVP is Curtis Samuel because he's going to touch the ball more than nine times, which is fun and good.
