“Every goal is still alive. We're not a great team right now. We gotta regroup and get guys healthy. Come back and keep swinging.”
Those were Urban Meyer's words following Ohio State's stunning collapse against Penn State Saturday night.
And you know what, he's right.
Ohio State isn't a great football team right now and has a lot of work to do to right the offense for a Big Ten stretch run.
He's also right about the fact that every one of the teams' goals is still in play. The Buckeyes are very much still in the hunt for a Big Ten championship and College Football Playoff berth. They even control their own destiny – somewhat.
First, let's take a look at the Big Ten's football tie-breaker rules:
The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:
(a) If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 6 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
- The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
- The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
- The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
- The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
- The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
- The representative will be chosen by random draw.
Now, let's work through a few scenarios.
Penn State wins out, Ohio State and Michigan win remaining games with the Buckeyes knocking off the Wolverines in the final game of the regular season.
Under this scenario, steps 1–4 would all result in ties, leading to step 5, which would remove Penn State (thanks, Pitt!). The Buckeyes would then get the nod because of the head-to-head win over the Wolverines.
Penn State drops another game, while Ohio State and Michigan win their remaining games up until they meet, with the Buckeyes winning “The Game” in Ohio Stadium.
A month ago, the prospect of Penn State winning its five remaining games was laughable. Now, not so much. Michigan State is a tire fire, Iowa is back to being Iowa and the other three opponents are Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers. Still, it's far from guaranteed that Penn State will win out and should they drop a game, they'd fall out of a hypothetical three-way tie with Ohio State and Michigan in this scenario.
The Buckeyes would then take the tie-breaker due to head-to-head record with the Wolverines.
Michigan loses multiple games, including the finale to Ohio State, while Penn State wins out.
This is bad news for Ohio State fans as Penn State would have the head-to-head tie-breaker.
Ohio State loses a single game the rest of the way.
If Ohio State loses another regular season game, you can likely kiss a Big Ten championship good bye. If the loss is at the hands of Michigan, you can definitely say adios.
So, while Ohio State doesn't technically control its own destiny – at least in the purest sense of that phrase – they're in a great position to jump right back into the thick of contention. Indeed, the latest AP Poll has Ohio State at No. 6 and the Westgate Las Vegas just released odds showing the Buckeyes – coming off a loss – are still the Big Ten favorites to capture the national championship.
If you're an Ohio State fan, you'll want to cheer on Michigan for the next four weeks, if you can, while cheering for another Penn State loss, just to make things easier. That, or hope the Wolverines stumble a handful of times, but that isn't going to happen.
Ohio State has to fix some things – and quickly – but the man behind the wheel is 56–5 for a reason.
