If you're too young to be familiar with James Brown's classic The Payback, I suggest you play this sucker on a loop leading up to kickoff.
Urban Meyer can downplay the revenge card all he wants – I'm not buying it – but even if he truly hasn't trumped up getting some payback to his team this week it doesn't mean we fans can't get all lathered up looking to settle a score.
Either way, Ohio State would be wise to not overlook the Spartans simply because of their record and the slew of injuries experienced by Mark Dantonio's squad considering his success against Meyer to date.
So are we headed for a blowout or could the weather help keeps things close? How will the Buckeyes attack the Spartan defense? How comfortable should fans be about Ohio State's chances to make the College Football Playoff if Penn State wins out?
For thoughts on these queries and more, I welcome the venerable Ramzy Nasrallah, the king of the chalkboard, Kyle Jones, and the staff's most lethal prognosticator, Zach Fleer.
I guess we should start off with some Michigan talk after its defeat at the hands of the Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium. Was that just an off night for the Wolverines who finally played a legit road game or do they have bigger problems especially now that Wilton Speight's collarbone snapped? What did you learn about our neighbors to the north as it relates to squaring off with the Buckeyes in Columbus eight days from now?
Ramzy: Michigan's roster is almost entirely upperclassmen so I was surprised when they looked jittery the entire evening despite having spent the first two months of the current season in Michigan. I've been to Kinnick at least 30 times and while it's loud and fun it's not exactly intimidating. It doesn't shake like Camp Randall. There's no blinding crowd theatrics like Beaver Stadium. Figured they would calm down and return to evil competence in the 2nd half and I was wrong. But probably more surprising - the Return of the Slow Terrible Michigan Linebackers really caught me off guard. A competent offense that plays for more than just field position and time of possession would have had a lot of fun against them *slowly turns head toward Ed Warinner and Tim Beck*
Michigan's defense will be no less ferocious than it was before taking an L. It allowed 66 passing yards, 3 yards a carry and lost. It's a plug-and-play system. Overconfidence because of one bad night is the path straight to Agony Town.
Kyle: Playing in Iowa City at night isn't easy, but Michigan's loss highlighted a few issues that have previously been overlooked, in my opinion. Don Brown's secondary is as good as you'll find anywhere in America and the defensive line is deep and well coached. But beyond those two units, the Wolverines lack championship-level depth elsewhere. Jake Butt is very good and Amara Darboh has risen to a higher level, but beyond those two, there are very few playmakers on a team that really struggled to move the ball against a solid and physical Iowa front. With or without Speight, Harbaugh's offense can't do much without having a solid run game from which to build off with the play-action pass, and the Buckeyes are favored for this very reason since they should be able to eek out enough points by stressing an average corps of linebackers while slowing the Wolverine offense.
Zach: I think that was an off night for Michigan, especially since Iowa seems to be their "trip up" game. While Speight's loss definitely hurts their offense, I think O'Korn won't be as bad as many are expecting. If they can continue to run the ball and make plays on the edge, I think they will be fine. Their defense will also have to continue to step up and give the offense some breathing room if O'Korn is to struggle. Indiana seems to be a good tune up for them to see if they'll be ready for Ohio State.
With all the upsets last weekend the latest CFP rankings slot the top six teams as Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson, Louisville and Washington. Even with Ohio State ranked so high there’s still understandable consternation that the Buckeyes could still be on the outside looking in if both OSU and Penn State win out. Assuming that happens, how confident are you that Ohio State still makes the playoff? Or maybe you think it’s a stretch Penn State can win three straight anyway?
Zach: I am 80% confident in Ohio State's chances if they win out, even without playing for a B1G title. Besides the fact that I think OSU is one of the four best teams in the country, I don't think the committee will sacrifice the money and TV ratings that come with Ohio State. I have a feeling Wisconsin will beat Penn State in the conference title game anyways.
Ramzy: If Ohio State wins in East Lansing and beats Michigan it will be in the Playoff. "Most Deserving" and "Hey Maybe the Big Ten's Tiebreaker System Should Be Updated for the Playoff Era" are two circles that barely overlap here. Penn State is having a good season but it lost one game by 39 and another to a team that already has four losses. Ohio State had one bad quarter and has wins over too many teams in the CFP rankings to be left out if it wins out.
Kyle: If Ohio State wins out, they're in the playoff, no question. The only real line on Penn State's resume is the victory over the Buckeyes, while OSU can highlight wins at Norman and Madison with a home win over another top-10 team in Michigan (hypothetically). Penn State's case would be strengthened by a win over Wisconsin, but the committee is already signaling their intent by placing Ohio State at #2 despite the possibility of not winning a conference title.
Ohio State’s offensive line owned Maryland racking up 253 rushing yards on the day including 171 in the 1st half on 6.3 per carry while largely giving J.T. Barrett all day to throw. Has Ohio State’s offensive line definitively come together in recent weeks especially at right tackle and left guard or is the level of competition something that shouldn’t be overlooked?
Kyle: It's a case of both. It takes time for a group to build chemistry and trust, but nothing accelerates that process better than getting countless successful reps together. The issues for Isaiah Prince and Michael Jordan were never physical but related more to their confidence (or lack thereof). Yet the duo has been excellent in pass protection lately, thanks largely to the confidence they've gained from mauling defenders time and time again in the run game.
Zach: I think it is a mix of both, however the dismantling of Nebraska was a big confidence boost. Even though MSU has really struggled this year, I think this week will be a great test to see how legit the offensive line is. I've been really satisfied the last two weeks and I think that will continue.
Ramzy: They're improving while Northwestern, Nebraska and Maryland haven't shown front sevens with skill approaching like Penn State's. It's both. Let's not overthink this.
Across the line of scrimmage, Ohio State’s defensive line has thrived through employing a deep rotation. Who would you say is the most indispensable member of Larry Johnson’s front and why? Who is the most underappreciated?
Ramzy: It's got to be Tyquan for on/off-field presence. Underappreciated - let's go with Michael Hill, who has increased his space-eating moments significantly as of late. Holistically it's a unit that's getting scarier at the right time.
Kyle: Despite the deep rotation up front, Tyquan Lewis seems to always be on the field at the biggest moments. Sam Hubbard draws a lot of attention and Nick Bosa may be the most naturally talented, but Lewis has been the most dependable and productive player in both running and passing situations, leading the team in both sacks and tackles-for-loss. As for underrated, I'm going with Dre'Month Jones, who seems to shoot gaps and disrupt opposing run games whenever he's on the field. He doesn't always bring the ballcarrier down himself but does an excellent job of causing chaos when he's out there.
Zach: For me, Tyquan Lewis is that guy. He's the most experienced and has been very consistent this season. As far as most under appreciated, I have to go with Jaylyn Holmes. He's been all over the field this season.
How do you see Ohio State’s rushing attack (No. 1 in B1G at 267 ypg) faring against the Spartan rush defense (No. 8 in B1G at 160 ypg)?
Zach: I have a feeling OSU will have a big rushing day and continue its momentum. Mike Weber, Curtis Samuel and hopefully Demario McCall should have a great afternoon.
Ramzy: I see the Buckeyes hitting their average on Saturday. Everything is clicking.
Kyle: Malik McDowell caused all kinds of problems for the Buckeyes last year, shooting gaps, destroying blocking schemes, and forcing Urban Meyer to take the ball out of Ezekiel Elliott's hands. But since he's unlikely to play (as of today), I don't see how the Spartans slow down the OSU running game with any of the same effectiveness we've seen in the past. Mark Dantonio has an effective defensive scheme that he will slightly tweak based on the opponent, but won't break entirely to adjust for personnel issues, meaning we should see more safety help in the box to give extra bodies, but leaving them exposed to the pass.
Looking at Ohio State’s pass offense, things have been trending upward since K.J. Hill gave the wide receiving corps a spark in addition to the staff taking advantage of coverage mismatches on Curtis Samuel in the slot. Should we expect the recent aerial success to continue this weekend or might the potential wind and the league's 5th-ranked pass defense (200 ypg, 14 TD, 8 INT) temper things a little?
Kyle: If there are safeties in the box to get extra bodies against the run, given the new identity of Meyer's offense with an efficient, intermediate passing game, J.T. Barrett should have a big game through the air. Hill has been a nice addition to the receiving corps, and he or Binjiman Victor may see some deep balls come their way, but I expect Marcus Baugh to receive extra targets this week. Michigan State's linebackers aren't the best athletes, and there will likely be lots of underneath routes stretching them laterally, meaning Baugh should be heavily involved.
Zach: Given our recent history throwing the ball against the Spartans, and especially in the type of weather that is expected, I have a feeling the pass offense may take a step back. Which is mainly my reason for why I think they will run the ball well in response to that.
Ramzy: Nothing stops this train. I expect to see the Buckeyes take shots all over the field. This isn't 2015 where they entered this game still trying to figure out who they were. They just won the past two weeks 124-6. It's no time to get cautious. Go into Spartan Stadium and burn it to the ground.
Asked after the Maryland win who the Heisman candidate on this team would be, Urban Meyer failed to give a meaningful response. So I’ll put it to you, through 10 games who is the most valuable player on this team? Why?
Ramzy: Sticking with my pick from the beginning of the season. It's Pat Elflein. I love JTB and Curtis Samuel, but without Elflein on that young line making calls it's very hard to imagine how this season would have begun and progressed. This is a team whose culture is rooted in the offensive line. He is the king of that position group. He is the MVP.
Kyle: Curtis Samuel. What he's doing as the best route-runner, deep threat, and outside runner is remarkable. He's Urban's queen on the chess board. He may not break any individual receiving or rushing records, but he has stepped up and delivered in every single game this season, even as opposing coaches develop game plans focused primarily on stopping him. His stats may prevent him from being recognized nationally at one position, but he's averaging over 10 yards every time he touches the ball, which he does almost 14 times per game. That's just silly.
Zach: Curtis Samuel. His impact in the passing and rushing game has been amazing, obviously since he leads the nation in YPC and could end up having 1000 yards receiving and rushing. He's been the big play guy that nobody else has really been yet.
Ohio State is roughly a 23-point favorite on the road against the banged up green and white. How will things unfold? Give us your final score and MVP predictions.
Zach: I think this game will be closer than what many may be predicting. I see MSU coming out with a lot of energy and fire, making the first half interesting. I think Ohio State rolls from there behind the ground game, winning 41-20. Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber are my MVPs.
Ramzy: I'm sad that 62-3 is unlikely to happen for a third straight week. I'll go with 41-14 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are rolling and given the circumstances, I think Urban is also playing to win points in a beauty contest.
Kyle: Meyer may say later that he was trying to impress the playoff committee, but I believe he steps on the gas a little longer than necessary in East Lansing this weekend to exorcise some of the demons remaining from last fall. In that same vein, I expect J.T. Barrett to play one of his best games of the year, knowing how poorly he played in that ugly loss one year ago. Buckeyes win 49-7 with Barrett throwing for over 250 yards while putting up five touchdowns.
