A defiant Billy Price answered matter-of-factly when asked if his Ohio State team could take care of business against Michigan if it performed the way it did in its 11th game of the season.
“If we execute, absolutely,” Price said after the Buckeyes beat Michigan State 17-16 on Saturday. “Absolutely.”
Price claimed he and the other Ohio State offensive linemen wanted to keep running the ball down Michigan State's throat on Saturday in an effort to wear out a depleted Spartans front. That seemed like a wise move considering the whipping wind that wrecked J.T. Barrett and the passing game plus the fact the Spartans were without their best defensive lineman, Malik McDowell. It didn't happen the way Price wished but the Buckeyes still finished with 224 rushing yards on 45 carries in addition to Mike Weber's go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter.
| DATE | MICHIGAN OUTPUT | OHIO STATE OUTPUT | WINNER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/24/12 | 27 carries, 108 yards, 2 TD | 52 carries, 207 yards, 1 TD | OSU, 26-21 |
| 11/30/13 | 35 carries, 152 yards, 2 TD | 46 carries, 393 yards, 4 TD | OSU, 42-41 |
| 11/29/14 | 38 carries, 121 yards, 2 TD | 39 carries, 233 yards, 4 TD | OSU, 42-28 |
| 11/28/15 | 25 carries, 57 yards, 0 TD | 54 carries, 369 yards, 5 TD | OSU, 42-13 |
| 11/26/16 | ? | ? | ? |
With Michigan on tap, how the Buckeyes perform against a front seven that is ranked second in the Big Ten is rushing defense at 108.6 yards allowed per game will go a long way to determining who wins on Saturday. It always does.
The same goes for when Michigan has the ball—can essentially the same Wolverine front five perform better than it did last season against the likes of Joey Bosa, Adolphus Washington and Co.?
This season, the Wolverines average 235.3 rushing yards per game. Ohio State averages 263.1. Those marks are good for first and second best in the conference. Early weather forecasts for Saturday call for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-40s but no precipitation. That is sure change by the weekend but it is clear: Both teams are going to try and run the ball.
“Win the game up front. Every tough-nosed, Big Ten game is won up front,” Price said. “The front seven defensively and front five offensively, including tight ends, running backs. If we don't protect, don't block, they can do whatever they want and it's going to be a bad day.”
The only non-returning starter on Michigan's offensive line is junior center Mason Cole, who steps in for Graham Glasglow. Ben Braden, Kyle Kalis and Erik Magnuson are also joined by freshman Ben Bredeson up front. In 2015, that group managed to pave the way for just 57 yards on 25 carries against the Buckeyes, a 2.3 yards per carry average.
The Wolverines also had to abandon the running game in the second half as Ohio State built its lead. But the Buckeyes got to quarterback Jake Rudock, sacking him twice. Joey Bosa blew past Cole—who was in as an extra tackle—late in the fourth quarter and planted Rudock to all but seal Ohio State's win. For good measure, Bosa tipped backup Wilton Speight's attempt at a screen pass and intercepted it a little later.
The Buckeyes were the most dominant team in the trenches on both sides of the ball, rushing for 369 yards on 54 carries for five touchdowns. Barrett only threw it 15 times, completing 9, for 113 yards and a touchdown. Not exactly balanced, but the Buckeyes took advantage of some injuries to Michigan's interior defensive line and linebacking corps to win 42-13.
“It'll be tough to win if we're not [balanced],” Urban Meyer said after the Michigan State game about this Saturday against the Wolverines. “I don't know the weather forecast yet. But we have to be balanced.”
The weather on Saturday in East Lansing affected game planning for both teams. It did in Ann Arbor too, where Michigan beat Indiana 20-10 and ran for 225 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 50 attempts as snow fell from the sky in the second half. The Hoosiers managed just 64 yards on 36 carries against the Wolverines, while mostly on the legs of L.J. Scott the Spartans rushed for 207 yards on 35 attempts against Ohio State.
“We had a couple big hits,” Meyer said. “You take away those big hits ... but they had big hits against us.”
Michigan's rushing defense is ranked second in the Big Ten, allowing only 108.6 yards per game. Opponents have only scored four rushing touchdowns against them all season. On the other side of the ball, however, the Wolverine offensive line took a step back in recent weeks.
According to MGoBlog, Michigan's offensive line put together its worst performance of the season in its 14-13 loss to Iowa. The fine folks at that site chalked it up to mental errors, like Kalis not hitting anybody because he completely forgot who to block.
“That goes back to an inability Kalis had to ID who he should block last year; it's been absent in 2016 until this game, when it came back with a vengeance,” MGoBlog boss Brian Cook wrote.
This also happened against Ohio State last season, to echo Cook's point:
Kalis struggled a bunch in the game against the Buckeyes, which took place at Michigan Stadium. The only times the Wolverines left Ann Arbor this season: a 78-0 win at Rutgers, a 32-23 win at Michigan State and the loss at Iowa. In those games, the Wolverines ran for 481 yards on 56 attempts (doesn't count because Rutgers), 192 yards on 42 carries and 98 yards on 35 tries. Solid, but not exactly world beating.
Ohio State's lowest rushing output unironically came in its lone loss of the season at Penn State. The Buckeyes ran 40 times for 168 yards and one touchdown. The Nittany Lions also sacked Barrett six times, a number that easily could have been much more had the quarterback not exhibited brilliant escapability in the pocket.
Michigan's quarterbacks have been sacked 16 times this season; Barrett has gone down 17 times. John O'Korn is the likely starter in front of Speight come Saturday, as the latter didn't play against Indiana due to a broken collarbone. O'Korn threw for 59 yards on 16 attempts. Barrett wasn't much better in East Lansing, as the weather hurt both passing offenses.
But Ohio State's quarterback finished with 105 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry. O'Korn ran six times for 19 yards. Jim Harbaugh has his work cut out for him if Speight cannot play.
Particularly if his offensive line cannot handle the defensive line rotation Larry Johnson throws at opponents with Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, Nick Bosa, Mike Hill, Dre'Mont Jones, Jalyn Holmes and others.
“Stats don't really tell the truth of the game. They maybe show numbers, absolutely, but the physicality and who has the upper hand and momentum, stats can't tell,” Price said. “I don't like to use the words hold on. We executed well up front and that's what we needed to do.”
Price is correct but statistics do give us an indication of how a unit performed in the 11 games up to this point. With everything on the line this Saturday, who blocks and gets off blocks best will go a long way in determining the outcome.
