The two best recruiting programs in the Big Ten will clash on Saturday for a share of the Big Ten East and a potential berth to the championship game. However, the balance favors Ohio State over the past three recruiting cycles. This bodes well for Saturday's matchup much like the balance favored Ohio State in its clash with Oklahoma in Norman.
Ohio State has led the conference in recruiting rankings since Meyer arrived for the 2012 recruiting cycle. Michigan has been No. 2 every year since, excepting the transition year from Hoke to Harbaugh in the 2015 cycle. Penn State used that transition to secure No. 2 status in the Big Ten.
Michigan closed the gap between itself and Ohio State with the 2016 recruiting cycle. However, Ohio State enjoys a discernible advantage over Michigan in almost every recruiting indicator.
| Indicator | Ohio State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 2014: 4-stars (5-stars) | 15 (1) | 8 (1) |
| 2015: 4-stars (5-stars) | 14 (1) | 6 (0) |
| 2016: 4-stars (5-stars) | 17(1) | 12(1) |
| 2014: Top-100 Prospects | 10 | 2 |
| 2015: Top-100 Prospects | 6 | 1 |
| 2016: Top-100 Prospects | 7 | 6 |
| 2014: Overall Rank (Score) | 3 (296.06) | 20 (233.57) |
| 2015: Overall Rank (Score) | 7 (277.78) | 37 (194.69) |
| 2016: Overall Rank (Score) | 4 (289.12) | 6 (280.38) |
Consider the first table, similar to the analysis we did for the Oklahoma matchup. This table compares Ohio State and Michigan on aggregate indicators for the class overall, including number of four-stars, five-stars, top 100 prospects, and overall rank. Ohio State beats Michigan, almost handily, in every facet.
Start with 2014, which featured a typical (i.e. stellar) recruiting haul for Urban Meyer against Brady Hoke's last full recruiting class before his dismissal after the 2014 season. Michigan fans will caution that, for all his faults, Brady Hoke did well to bring talent to Ann Arbor. Major pieces from his 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes feature prominently on Michigan's roster.
The 2014 recruiting class may have portended lost faith in where Michigan was going under Brady Hoke. The Wolverines landed the No. 6 recruiting class in 2012 (with 15 four-stars) and the No. 4 recruiting class in 2013 (with 17 four-stars). However, Michigan fell to No. 8 in the 2014 cycle with just eight four-stars and only two top 100 prospects.
The class still produced several mainstays on the current roster, most prominently Jabrill Peppers (a five-star athlete) and Wilton Speight (the season's starting quarterback). Others players from that class like Mason Cole, Noah Furbush, Chase Winovich feature in Michigan's two-deep.
If Michigan struggles with talent against Ohio State in the short-term, Michigan fans will likely point to the 2015 recruiting class as a culprit. Michigan fired Brady Hoke after the season-ending loss at Ohio Stadium in 2014 but had to wait several weeks before the NFL season ended to hire Jim Harbaugh as his replacement. Michigan lost ground with several recruits as a result. Ohio State fans should remember this helped Urban Meyer secure Mike Weber's signature over a competing offer from Harbaugh and Michigan.
This 2015 recruiting class for Michigan just produced 14 players total, only six with four stars. Tyree Kinnel and Tyrone Wheatley have made some small contributions to the current roster among those six four stars. Grant Newsome, another four-star, was a starting tackle before blowing out his knee last month. Grant Perry, a three-star, starts in the slot and is fourth in receiving yards for the offense. Do note that effectively means he has just 134 receiving yards this season. The jury is out for the remainder of the class.
The 2016 recruiting class should be a sign of things to come. Jim Harbaugh's first full recruiting class was the program's highest-rated class since 2013. It signed 12 four-stars in addition to the crown jewel of the class, Rashan Gary. Gary was a first-day contributor to the Wolverines' defense. It closed the gap elsewhere with Ohio State, prominently in the number of top 100 prospects. Ohio State signed seven top 100 prospects to Michigan's six. That gap was as high as 10 to two in the 2014 cycle.
The position breakdowns overall tell a story that mostly favors Ohio State. Ohio State signed more four-stars and five-stars overall in all but two positions. Both signed the same number of four-stars at quarterback (Joe Burrow and Dwayne Haskins for Ohio State; Alex Malzone and Brandon Peters for Michigan). Unsurprisingly, Michigan signed more top quality tight ends since 2014 than Ohio State. This tally counts quarterback signee Zach Gentry as a tight end since he finalized the conversion after his redshirt year.
| Team | QB | RB | WR | TE | OL | DL | LB | DB | ATH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
The tally suggests Ohio State has done well to put itself in a position to succeed at key positions on the roster. Ohio State signed eight four-star or five-star offensive linemen to Michigan's four since 2014. Whereas offensive linemen have arguably the most difficult transition from high school to college, Ohio State has put itself in a position to succeed by maximizing the number of offensive line prospects it signs. Michigan, meanwhile, will be behind the eight ball, especially when Ben Braden, Kyle Kalis, and Erik Magnuson leave after this year.
Ohio State has further out-recruited Michigan on defense. The Buckeyes signed six four-star or five-star defensive linemen to Michigan's five. This tally excludes a starter like Sam Hubbard, who signed with Ohio State as an "athlete" and not a defensive lineman. Ohio State also signed seven elite linebacker prospects to Michigan's three, a tally that would hold even if we added "athlete" Jerome Baker to Ohio State's linebacker count and added Jabrill Peppers (a multi-purpose athlete) to Michigan's linebacker count.
Ohio State is already seeing the payoff to this linebacker glut. Ohio State substituted Jerome Baker for Justin Hilliard when Hilliard was injured for the season. Baker paid dividends with a pick-six against Oklahoma.
The Buckeyes' talent at secondary also outpaces what Michigan signed over a three-year period, a statement that might be controversial since Jourdan Lewis is a Thorpe Award finalist and Channing Stribling is having a breakout season too. All the same, Ohio State may have matched the Wolverines at cornerback with its tandem of Gareon Conley (2013 signee) and Marshon Lattimore. It may field the better safety combo as well. Malik Hooker and Damon Webb round out an Ohio State defensive back haul that more than doubled what Michigan signed from 2014 to 2016.
Michigan will bring to Columbus the most talented team Ohio State will have played in the season to this point. Only Michigan has reliably challenged Ohio State for supremacy in the recruiting rankings among Big Ten teams. However, the balance in the recruiting rankings favors Ohio State in almost every indicator. That bodes well, especially if Saturday's game unfolds the way the Ohio State-Oklahoma matchup developed in Norman earlier this season.
