Things are starting to get interesting in the College Football Playoff, folks. All it took was a month!
The selection committee released its final set of rankings that don't hold any weight when it is all said and done on Tuesday night. We sit fewer than five faithful days away from seeing which four teams are going to get a chance to compete for the national championship and which others will get shut out.
While we wait, it is gut reaction time. Let's get to it.
Ohio State Looks Like It Is In The Playoff
Eight teams in the current top 10 play on either Friday or Saturday. The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes are not one of them.
However, based off where the committee slotted Urban Meyer's team and what selection committee head Kirby Hocutt said both on television and a conference call after the show, it is going to be very, very difficult to imagine a situation where Ohio State isn't one of the top-4 teams.
“The sole purpose of the selection committee is to rank the four best teams in college football,” Hocutt said.
“I have talked on this call the past couple of weeks about the quality win that Penn State does have over Ohio State,” he continued. “But it is not the distinguishing metric in the evaluation of these two teams.”
That has been the committee's swan song all month but Hocutt did not mention conference championships hardly at all when he spoke about the separation between teams near the top of the rankings. Consider:
“Penn State remains at the 7 spot, Ohio State's at the 2 spot. Nothing's changed from that angle. There is still a significant separation,” Hocutt said. “They're not close in the eyes of the selection committee.”
That is terrific news for the Buckeyes, even though they lost at Penn State. It might change if the Nittany Lions destroy Wisconsin on Saturday (not likely) but I can't see a scenario where Ohio State gets jumped by them.
I thought an Ohio State v. Big Ten Champion would be a considerable debate—the committee made it clear the last two weeks that it is not. It is looking more and more like the Buckeyes will be No. 3 or No. 4 come Sunday.
Michigan Is Still Very Much In The Conversation
Michigan dominated Ohio State for essentially 45 minutes in Ohio Stadium on Saturday. Still, the Wolverines lost. However, they only fell from No. 3 to No. 5. Two close road losses by a combined four points on the last play of each game, plus three wins against top-10 teams (two of whom play in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday) are significant pluses on their résumé.
Washington bumped up to No. 4 in the rankings this week due to Michigan's loss but Hocutt said the committee spent an inordinate amount of time discussing those two teams. It amassed to two hours, mostly due to Washington's weak strength of schedule.
“It's been a concern and continues to be a concern,” Hocutt said of the SOS. “The separation between Washington at No. 4 and Michigan at No. 5 is extremely small.”
He later described that margin to be "razor thin." Michigan needs chaos in the form of a Washington loss to Colorado, a Clemson loss to Virginia Tech and a dominant Wisconsin victory over Penn State. But it is clear the committee is truly trying to identify the four best teams in the country—not the four best conference champions, as it did last year.
Bottom line, ask yourself: After watching Michigan on Saturday, do you think they are one of the four best teams? It is hard to find four better—but all depends on Washington losing to Colorado.
LOL Tennessee
OK, I know it is at the point in the season where the teams that have two or fewer losses are few and far between. But it really doesn't make any sense that Tennessee is still ranked in the top 25. It is stuck at No. 22 this week.
I also know it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things but the Volunteers lost by 11 to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt. I have nothing against the Commodores (even visited there in high school as I scanned colleges) but they are 6-6 and their best victory other than the one against the Volunteers is a 17-16 win over a bad Georgia team on the road. Tennessee is 8-4. Come on, now.
The committee can do better and should do better. Tennessee lost to South Carolina. It lost to Vanderbilt. It should have lost to Appalachian State. Let's move on.
The Group of Five New Year's Six Representative Could Get Interesting
Hocutt mentioned on a conference call that the committee has another such call scheduled for Dec. 10 after the Army-Navy game to discuss Group of 5 scenarios. Navy played its way to the AAC Championship Game this Saturday and is scheduled to face Temple. Then the annual battle of the service academies is a week later.
Even though Western Michigan is 12-0 and could be 13-0 should it beat Ohio to win the MAC, Hocutt continued to plant seeds that Navy would be the highest-ranked Group of 5 team should it win out. If that happens, the Midshipmen would play in the Cotton Bowl.
And frankly, that would be really cool. Anything with the service academies in the postseason is awesome because those programs can't really recruit. I have been a P.J. Fleck and Western Michigan supporter since this whole thing got started and it is really hard to go undefeated. But it comes down to résumés. If Navy wins out, its body of work is better.
Dream Scenarios
Ever since the rankings came out and I saw Michigan only fall to No. 5 after its double-overtime loss to Ohio State, I have been trying to wrap my head around this possible Playoff setup: No. 1 Alabama v. No. 4 Michigan and No. 2 Clemson v. No. 3 Ohio State.
The Buckeyes appear to be in the Playoff regardless what happens this weekend. Michigan can get there with some help, namely Colorado beating Washington and Wisconsin winning the Big Ten, like we said above. The Wolverines are a really solid team and boast a defense that could give Alabama trouble. The Crimson Tide's defense is amazing in its own right but imagine how much fun it would be to see Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh pacing opposite sidelines in Atlanta.
Then, if Ohio State got another shot at Clemson, you would have Deshaun Watson—the multi-talented quarterback—squaring off against the coach that desperately wanted him at Ohio State, Urban Meyer. All four fanbases travel well. All four teams are very good. It is a longshot but would be a helluva time should that happen.
