Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Spread, Point Total and Betting Props to Watch for Ohio State vs. Minnesota

Will Ohio State steamroll yet another conference opponent on the team's way to a 13th straight win over Minnesota? Or will P.J. Fleck become his school's first coach to take down the Buckeyes since Glen Mason in the 2000 season?

As always, play responsibly, and let's consider the sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Minnesota.

Lines and odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

The Spread: Ohio State -27.5

Those without fear of a spread above 30 points rejoiced last week on Ohio State's way to a cover before halftime. That result brought the team's overall record against the spread to a solid 6-3-1 this season with two games remaining. Now sporting a 5-1 ATS mark since the start of October, plenty of optimism exists that Ohio State can find a third straight cover for the second time on its 2023 schedule.

Or so one would think! In truth, the last decade of betting results concerning the Golden Gophers includes no success against the spread. Ohio State has not covered a spread against Minnesota since the Buckeyes did so in their since-vacated 52-10 win from the 2010 season.

An 0-3-1 mark over the four latest results between these schools stands out most  predominantly across their last 10 contests. Making matters worse for those seeking a cover this weekend, each of the last nine meetings between Ohio State and Minnesota have featured comparable double-digit spreads, including six of those with a spread of at least 20 points. That makes the current lofty line even less appealing than what last week offered.

Half of the last 10 games between the Buckeyes and Golden Gophers have taken place in Minneapolis. What happens to the betting results if strictly examining the most recent meetings in Columbus? 

Adjusting for only Ohio State's home games since 1998 reveals a 5-3 ATS record since the 1998 season, with five straight wins since 2006 — all but one of which featured a spread of at least 20 points. If the afternoon crowd comes out for the Buckeyes, home field advantage could prove crucial in helping OSU win this game by at least four touchdowns.

The Total: 50

The Autumn of Unders continues to blow cold wind all across the Buckeye point totals. Ohio State seemed poised to crush the over by itself last week after scoring five touchdowns in the first half, but hit the brakes hard after Michigan State managed only three points of its own in the same timeframe. The Buckeyes now own eight unders against just two overs on the 2023 season.

The current line on the point total would be Ohio State's first to close in the 50s since the team faced Purdue over a month ago. The return to that range arrives in spite of three unders for the Buckeyes transpiring in their last four games. A similar trend emerges when examining the recent history between Minnesota and Ohio State.

The last 10 meetings concerning the Buckeyes and Golden Gophers have seen five unders, four overs, and one push. Minnesota scored at least three touchdowns in all but one of those contests that enjoyed the over. The last over to hit at Ohio Stadium between these teams took place over 15 years ago during the 2008 season.

Some of those point totals jump above and below the comparable range relative to where the line currently sits. What happens when adjusting for only results with over/under lines that closed in the range of 50 points?

The two most-recent results between these schools with similar point total lines both saw unders, but the overall record favors the over going back to the 2001 season. The 2014 game also narrowly missed the over by merely half a point, and the Golden Gophers scored at least two touchdowns in all but one of these meetings. Only two of those games took place in Columbus.

Recent history lends a lot of optimism to the under, especially after Ohio State limited the second half of its game last week to three total points. However, the unusual upward shift in the line relative to the recent success towards the under indicates conflicting confidence in the market for all involved. Even in a season of unders, the best play this week may be to stay away.

Prop Watch: Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 103.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Watch moved to 4-4-2 this season after closing down another betting market with an easy under call for the second straight week. Good luck finding another line on Kyle McCord's pass attempts or TreVeyon Henderson's receiving yards from a major sportsbook during the regular season!

Now another new prop market has emerged on the board in the form of Chip Trayanum's rushing yard total, and the temptation to take the under remains strong for a third straight week. After all, Trayanum has only eclipsed 44 rushing yards three times in 10 appearances this season, and has not done so since the Maryland game at the start of October.

But too many unders can ruin the sense of fun and optimism that should always exist within sports betting. So for the sake of sharing in the success of the Buckeyes this week as opposed to targeting cold-blooded profitability, lets consider a Marvin Harrison Jr. prop for the first time since the Western Kentucky game in September.

The Route Man Marv campaign for Heisman appears to have hit full swing in Columbus. Maserati Marv now has touchdowns in six straight games and has achieved over 1,000 yards receiving on less than 60 total receptions so far this season.

If Harrison Jr. can finish each of the final two games with 100 yards receiving and a touchdown, he will end the regular season with not only a score in eight straight games, but also triple-digit receiving totals in nine of 12 appearances. Sprinkle a few jaw-dropping highlights across those stats, and suddenly Ohio State's most impressive wide receiver ever has a leading case for college football's greatest individual honor. Who could have possibly seen this coming?

Harrison Jr. has yet to have less than 126 yards receiving in any of the Buckeyes' home games this season. Even if he falls just shy of hitting the over on his line of 6.5 for total receptions, Harrison Jr.'s season average of 18 yards-per-catch would still see him clear his current line of 103.5 receiving yards.

Do you really expect Route Man Marv to receive anything less than a Heisman-candidate's workload down the stretch heading into award season? Why do you think OSU Comms has had The Beatles on repeat since October?

Marvin Harrison Jr.: Here Come The Stats! pic.twitter.com/N588tkHBES

— Jerry Emig (@BuckeyeNotes) November 17, 2023

One could hardly call that Heisman propaganda, but the push to drive Maserati Marv to New York remains clear.

Good luck, and go Buck$.