In the second year of Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as the head coach in Ann Arbor, he’s returned the Wolverines to national prominence for the first time in a decade, thanks in large part to the efforts of his dominant defense. As a former quarterback, though, it may be a bit surprising that his offense has failed to take a similar step forward, despite what the numbers may show.
Michigan currently ranks second in the Big Ten in total offense, trailing only Ohio State’s ground-based attack. That success has been due in large part to two key factors: the emergence of Wilton Speight as a capable starting quarterback to lead a veteran unit that returned eight starters from a year ago.
While the Wolverines have looked dominant at times this fall, many of those outings came against Hawaii, Rutgers, and Maryland, who happen to feature some of the worst defenses in the country. While their most impressive performance of the year appears to be a 49 point, 515-yard beatdown of eighth-ranked Penn State, the Nittany Lions were missing virtually their entire linebacking corps that afternoon.
That said, the Michigan offense had been extremely efficient throughout much of the season, averaging a stellar 6.27 yards-per-play. That productivity didn’t just come in one phase either, as the Wolverines have been equally effective with both the run and the pass, picking up 2,588 yards through the air to 2,374 on the ground.
However, the wheels have fallen off lately, as Speight injured his shoulder during a 14-13 loss to Iowa two weeks ago in which his side tallied only 201 total yards of offense. In his place, backup John O’Korn struggled, completing only 7 of 16 passes for 59 yards against Indiana a week later.
Despite the personnel changes at quarterbacks, Harbaugh’s offense remains as ‘Pro-Style’ as ever, often lining up with two backs, two tight ends, or both, but often looking to use misdirection and play-action to attack in ways the defense doesn’t initially expect. Many of those attacks have been successful thanks to the Wolverine receivers’ ability to win one-on-one battles while giving Speight enough time in the pocket to deliver the ball downfield.
That strategy is no different than the one Harbaugh tried to implement against Ohio State last year, looking to beat the Buckeye defense that often called for man-coverage. Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson remain as the only consistent threats among the Michigan wide receiving crew, but the duo failed to create much separation against Eli Apple and Gareon Conley when locked up against them in solo coverage.
This fall, the Buckeyes have called for even more man-coverage under new secondary coach Greg Schiano, and feature a duo of cornerbacks in Conley and Marshon Lattimore that are more than willing to go toe-to-toe with any receiver in the country. Unlike the previous two years when Chris Ash was directing things in the Buckeye back seven, Schiano has relied far more heavily on the 'Cover-1' scheme which features one deep safety in a zone with the remaining defenders in man coverage, thanks to the capable talent at hand.
Though the OSU defense largely held Harbaugh's offense in check one year ago, many of Michigan's biggest gains came when the Buckeyes were in the 'Quarters' coverage Ash relied upon so heavily. On more than one occasion, inside receivers broke open on corner routes that stressed the safety responsible for them in Ash's scheme, with Chesson finding great success once he was able to gain separation from a defender.
This year, however, Schiano will undoubtedly rely heavily on the 'Cover 1' scheme against the Wolverines, just as he has against other 'pro-style' teams on the Buckeyes' schedule. If Harbaugh hopes to gain any momentum through the air, he'll have to lean on his best offensive weapon, tight end Jake Butt.
The central Ohio native had a solid game one year ago in Ann Arbor, tallying five catches for 54 yards against his hometown team. At 6'6" and 250 lbs, he provides a clear matchup problem for the much smaller Ohio State defensive backs, using great speed for a tight end to get downfield in a hurry, but also his size to box out safeties and haul in deep balls.
The key to stopping Butt downfield will be to get in O'Korn's face quickly. The backup QB did a good job of getting rid of the ball quickly when pressured against the Hoosiers but missed on all four of his attempts of 10 yards or more that afternoon.
Even if Speight does find the strength to play through his shoulder injury, he also struggled mightily in his recent outing when throwing downfield. Against the Hawkeyes, he only completed one of 13 throws of 10 yards or more that night as the Hawkeyes played a similar brand of aggressive man defense like what we can expect from the Buckeyes.
Not only will the play of the Buckeye defensive line be critical when rushing the passer, though, they'll be tasked with keeping the veteran Michigan offensive line from finding any rhythm in the run game. While tackles Ben Braden and Erik Magnusen have played well lately, the unit as a whole has been fairly inconsistent, swinging back and forth between dominant outings in which Wolverine runners pick up hundreds of yards in one game, then average two yards-per-carry the next.
In last year's matchup featuring much of the same talent up front, the Buckeye linebackers Josh Perry and Darron Lee had no trouble slowing down running back De'Veon Smith, thanks to constant penetration and disruption from the defensive line. Smith picked up only 23 yards on 10 carries that afternoon, so it will be interesting to see how Harbaugh dispatches many of the same schemes and players in his second go-round with Ohio State.
Much of the 2015 game plan featured Smith running from the shotgun, using the read-option to hold the backside defensive end (often Joey Bosa). That plan hardly worked in Smith's favor, and it's more likely that Michigan will return to the I-formation looks that have been far more common and successful for them this fall.
Though the Buckeyes will be without Lee and Perry, the speed of their defensive line should come into play, penetrating gaps and re-routing Smith into the hands of teammates. One key player to watch here will be Jalyn Holmes, who has used his superior athleticism to lead the team with 14 'stuffed' play at or behind the line of scrimmage.
To counter, Harbaugh might try to establish the run game on the outside. The Ohio State defense was gashed for a handful of big plays one week ago by L.J. Scott and the Michigan State defense, who used jet motion one way to hold the linebackers before running Scott back the opposite way, breaking contain and getting to the edge.
Smith has held onto his starting spot over the past two seasons thanks to his ability to run through tackles, but often comes out of the game in favor of backup Chris Evans. Evans provides a change of pace with a smaller frame and superior quickness, but his playing time may be diminished by the presence of Jabrill Peppers on this day.
Peppers will obviously be more valuable to the Wolverine defense, but he saw a great number of snaps on the offensive side of the ball against the Buckeyes last year, thanks to his ever-present home run ability. But thanks to the disciplined efforts of players like Lee, that threat was largely held in check.
As we see here, the Wolverines are clearly trying to gain a numbers advantage on the outside to let Peppers turn upfield. But Lee sniffs out the play immediately, forcing him back inside. Lee's replacement this fall, Chris Worley, will likely be stressed by similar concepts Saturday, as will young linebacker Jerome Baker on the opposite side.
Both teams will undoubtedly throw out all kinds of wrinkles in this matchup, given the stakes at play. However, what will decide this contest will be the little things like execution in one-on-one battles, which favors the Buckeye defense.
This year's Michigan offense has gotten to where they are by avoiding mistakes and out-executing opponents of equal or lesser talent. For the first time all year, though, they'll be facing a side in the with an overall talent edge. If the Buckeyes avoid major mistakes and play disciplined football, the gap in talent should be apparent early, limiting the Wolverines' offensive success.
