Thursday Skull Session

By D.J. Byrnes on May 21, 2015 at 4:59 am
Luke Fickell: In the Lens
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The Cavs are going to win a title. I know the NBA isn't everyone's cup of tea, but if you can't enjoy J.R. Smith dropping 28 points in Atlanta or this:

 ... then I almost question if you like sports.

If the Cavs win the title then I vote Ohio secedes from Earth. We have nothing left to prove here, and Darron Lee needs to return to his home planet. 

COMPUTERS SPIT ON THE BUCKEYES. Folks, grab your pitchforks. Our favorite "amateur" football team has been blatantly disrespected by math. This can not and will not stand.

From Bill Connelly of SBNation.com's S&P+ preseason projections:

The process is to come up with three sets of projections based on five-year performance (weighted to make 2014 more important than 2013, and so on), the likely changes associated with each team's returning starter figures, and the likely changes associated with each team's two-year recruiting averages (recruiting rankings are relatively solid predictive stats).

I blend them together based on what has produced the best results in the past. That means recent history carrying the most weight and recruiting carrying the least.

SCHOOL CONF. PROJ. S&P+ RK 2014 RK PROJ. CHANGE WEIGHTED 5-YEAR RETURNING STARTERS IMPACT RECRUITING IMPACT
ALABAMA SEC 24.4 1 2 1 1 4 1
OHIO STATE B1G 24.0 2 1 -1 2 1 9
GEORGIA SEC 20.9 3 7 4 4 7 10
OREGON P-12 20.5 4 3 -1 3 6 23
AUBURN SEC 19.5 5 4 -1 6 8 5


In all seriousness, even Connelly was surprised the Buckeyes were pinched by their sub-par (for OSU standards) "recruiting impact" ranking, which was the lowest-weighted subset of the group.

HEISMAN WINNERS DROP TAKES. There are four(!) Buckeyes tabbed as possible "heir to Troy Smith's Heisman Throne" (more on that in a bit), but three living OSU Heisman winners gathered for an event in NYC put on by the OSU Alumni Association. 

From Alex Gleitman of 247Sports.com:

Who in your life was instrumental in your success?

Archie: HIs father, as he admired and learned from his work ethic. Said his older brothers too as all three played college football so he had no choice. Archie was asked this question outside of Woody Hayes, but there is no doubt that was a big influence on him.

Troy: Said if he doesn't say his mom with cameras in the room she'd kill him. Says normally they say it takes a village to raise a child, but in his case it was a city or five townships to raise him. Says four to five different men in his live helped to do that. Tim Roberts was one in grades six to eight, as he helped implement structure in his life. Smith's foster dad for seven years, Irvin White, was another as he helped put a football in his hands, transitioning him from defensive end to quarterback. The other three were Ted Ginn Sr., Joe Daniels (QB coach at OSU), and Jim Tressel.

Eddie: Said his mother. She worked 3-4 jobs to get him through Fork Union Military Academy. He didn't get a scholarship there and his mom had to pay his whole way. Found out later that she made her last payment to his coach at FUMA in the first year he was in the NFL. Said without FUMA for 3 years he would not be on the stage right now. He had a father who had issues and the school basically was his father, molding him into the man and parent he is today.

I can relate to the first two answers... I cannot relate to Eddie's answer. I assume my career in military school would end with a sergeant shoving a live grenade down my mouth.

ACTUALLY, VEGAS WANTS TO ENTICE 50/50 BETTING... Bovada released its latest marketing blitz/wave of odds. Ohio State is still sitting pretty.

PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL ODDS
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT RB OHIO STATE 6:1
LEONARD FOURNETTE RB LSU 15:2
DAK PRESCOTT QB MISSISSIPPI STATE 8:1
NICK CHUBB RB GEORGIA 8:1
TREVONE BOYKIN QB T.C.U. 8:1
CODY KESSLER QB U.S.C. 12:1
CARDALE JONES QB OHIO STATE 12:1
EVERETT GOLSON QB FLORIDA STATE 14:1
DERRICK HENRY RB ALABAMA 16:1
CONNOR COOK QB MICHIGAN STATE 20:1
DESHAUN WATSON QB CLEMSON 20:1
JEREMY JOHNSON QB AUBURN 20:1
SAMAJE PERINE RB OKLAHOMA 20:1
BRAXTON MILLER QB OHIO STATE 25:1
J.T. BARRETT QB OHIO STATE 28:1
COREY CLEMENT RB WISCONSIN 33:1

My only concern with betting on the Teflon Wizard is his health. Not that he'll miss games (although that's a concern with any running back given the brutality of the position), but nagging injuries.

For example, his wrist just got back to 100% yesterday. It's one thing to play one-handed for one game. It's another to do it over the course of an entire season.

Ohio State will be leading sizably in a majority, if not all, of the 4th quarters in its regular season contests. OSU coaches would be wise to shelve him in such moments — as well as manage his workload — to keep keep him right for the playoffs.

Remember: Ohio State didn't need him to be an outright workhorse to get to the postseason last year:

... The problems with wagering on an OSU quarterback are 1) all three could win the job 2) injury risk (except for maybe Cardale, who might be made out of steel).

Somebody I would like to bet against is USC's Cody Kessler. People acted like I slandered Bart Starr the other day when I said I'd take Everett Golson over him.

Golson will finish higher in Heisman voting than Kessler. (Fave this Tweet.)


Here are the team championship odds: 

SCHOOL TITLE ODDS
OHIO STATE 7:2
ALABAMA 7:1
T.C.U. 10:1
AUBURN 12:1
FSU 12:1
U.S.C. 18:1
BAYLOR 20:1
ND 20:1
CLEMSON 22:1
OREGON 22:1
GEORGIA 25:1
MICHIGAN STATE 25:1
OKLAHOMA 25:1
LSU 28:1
UCLA 28:1

I'm not omnipresent like Phil Steele, but looking over this list... none of those teams intimidate me, the guy who will watch every contest on television from his couch.

I hate that it's "championship or bust" before June... but it is. It was the same last year, but there was always the "if Braxton stays healthy" caveat. (Kids, ask your grandpa about those simpler times next time you're watching him slurp oatmeal through a straw at the family breakfast table.)

At this point, Urban could field walk-ons in Ann Arbor, and I'd be way too drunk at 7:30 a.m. shouting, ”NEXT MAN UP, BABY! NEXT! MAN! UP!”

CFP NAMED EVENT OF THE YEARThe Sports Business Journal has decreed that the College Football Playoff was extremely good.

Shoutout to the people who used to say the College Football Playoff would be bad.

SAMMY SILV: STILL THE GOLD STANDARD. Sadly, it looks like even Michigan has learned the importance of keeping a quality graphics designer on its payroll. But the good news is that Ohio State still employs Sammy Silverman, who is not only a CFB originator but the best in the business:

THOSE WMDs. Confessions of a Google Spammer... Bees hatch before your eyes... A writer, a hermit, and Oreo cookies: The strange and sad tale of Cole Waddell's first magazine story... James Ellroy spills LA's crime scene secrets – in pictures... Mozgov!

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