Skull Session: Analytics Guru Not High on Ohio State, Kerry Coombs Against Kickoff Ban, and Sean Peyton Advises You to Draft Michael Thomas

By D.J. Byrnes on August 25, 2016 at 4:59 am
The Best Damn Band in the Land brought the drums for the August 25th 2016 Skull Session
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It's interesting how some people will always lambaste guys like Joey Bosa for "not taking the millions" and not the billionaire owner for refusing to shell out what amounts to petty cash.

Why is that?

It's an honest question, and one to which I don't have a concrete answer. My guess is it's easier for unwashed people like us to envision taking a $25 million contract than turning one down.

Regardless, props to the Big Bear for sticking to his guns. I hope the Chargers are left with nothing, which is what they deserve.

 THIS IS WHY I HATE MATH. I didn't get into sports blogging to write about math. And yet... I can never escape "the sweet science."

If you're reading this, you're probably high on the Buckeyes' chances this year. They're young, but we all saw how Urban Meyer banded together another group of young Bucks in 2014 and rode them to the title.

Anything can happen, right? Wrong, according to math.

From dispatch.com:

Bill Connelly, an analytics insider for SB Nation, has devised a set of criteria that help measure the efficiency of college football teams. Connelly is a nice guy, so don’t go off on him, but by his calculations the Buckeyes should be ranked 14th (the Associated Press has them No. 6; the coaches rank them No. 5) entering the season. When factoring the potential contribution of recruits, he bumps Ohio State to No. 11.

[...]

Opportunity rate is the percentage of carries in which the offensive line does its job by producing at least 5 yards of rushing for the runner. Generally speaking, the first 5 yards are considered the line’s responsibility, the next 5 yards are split between the runner and line, and anything over 10 yards is all on the runner.

Given that Ohio State returns only two starters on the offensive line, the rushing numbers do not look promising. But analytics are not gospel. They cannot measure passion and the power of perseverance.

Burn down all numbers!!!!!!!!

But in all seriousness, it does sound ludicrous. Ohio State is replacing three starters on the offensive line, including a first-round draft pick. It's also replacing a first-round running back. That's normally a death blow to "opportunity rate" and offensive efficiency.

Yet I have faith in Meyer and his recruiting. I have faith in the coaching staff. Just because guys like Sam Hubbard, Mike Weber, Jamarco Jones, Malik Hooker, Isaiah Prince, Dante Booker (need I go on?) don't show up in statistical analysis doesn't mean Ohio State isn't about to be a problem for the Big Ten.

Still, I shouldn't get fired up. Meyer's teams feed on disrespect. And "No. 11" might not be disrespect to most teams in America, but this is Ohio State.

We'll see who's more right come November.

 COOMBS LOVES KICKOFFS. Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports reported last month the NCAA began discussions about eliminating kickoffs.

Kerry Coombs makes a living, in part, by organizing Ohio State's swarming kickoff coverage, which has perennially been one of the best in the country since his arrival.

This week, he discussed the NCAA's discussions.

From theozone.com:

"Miserable, embarrassing, and not football," Coombs said. "People are trying to take that out of the game. That would be a detriment to Ohio State. What’s more fun than watching those 11 guys line up and the crowd is going crazy and they run down the field, and it’s like an explosion? What’s more fun than that?

"I wouldn’t change anything. If they change it they may as well take it out. To me, it’s a man’s game and it’s a man’s play. It’s fast guys running down field and playing hard. I think it’s a lot of energy and a lot of excitement. I don’t find us having an extraordinary amount of injuries on that play."

The Buckeyes' preference is to kick off towards the left corner of the end zone and inside the opponent's 5-yard line. They effectively eliminate nearly two-thirds of the field in doing so, provided they maintain their lanes. There are rarely any actual head-on collisions as returners tend to turn or slow down when they see a tackler headed their way, and there is usually a tackler upon them rather immediately."

Not to disagree with Coombs, who could turn my testicles into a necklace with a snap of his fingers, but I would say watching Darron Lee hold Michigan's pulsating heart over his head in 2014 was way more fun than any of those kickoffs.

It's easy to see why he's against it, though. Meyer, much like Jim Tressel, preaches field position as a key to victory. Ohio State dominates kick coverage.

That said, I won't cry if the NCAA bans kickoffs. The Buckeyes can still dominate their opponents in field position through punts.

 COMPUTER FOOTBALL ADVICE FROM AN NFL COACH. Computer football changed the way people cheer for the NFL. Some people like it, other people don't.

For those who do, here's New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton with some timely advice on Mike Thomas.

From nola.com:

NFL teams sometimes temper public expectations for rookies, hoping to avoid the arrogance that can beset young players, but Payton said Tuesday that's not the case with Thomas.

"I've got high expectations from him," Payton said. "Listen, I think he's going to contribute early. And I don't follow fantasy football, but, shoot, I'd try to have him. I think he's going to do well." 

The Saints aren't listing Thomas as a starter yet. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead have NFL experience and have spent more time with quarterback Drew Brees. But, Thomas is clearly ahead of all the other wide receivers, especially with Payton saying Saturday that Brandon Coleman has been "pedestrian" for most of training camp.

Perhaps an NFL coach telling you to draft Thomas isn't enough. Well, here's All-Pro QB Drew Brees raving about him (again).

From canalstreetchronicles.com:

"He is progressing. Each day, I just see the fire in this guy’s eyes. He wants to work, he wants to be great. He’s always asking for feedback on how he can do something better and what I’m expecting and what I’m looking for. You love a guy with that mentality, because he wants to learn. He wants to be coached. He wants to be great."

I own two first-round picks in Marion, Ohio's toughest computer football league. It's a keeper league, and as such, I'm taking Ezekiel Elliott No. 1 overall and Mike Thomas No. 7 overall.

Those bums might as well hand me my crown Saturday after the draft.

 LINSLEY KEEPS THE FAITH. Former Ohio State Slob Corey Linsley's story is one of the most fascinating of the Urban Meyer era. No stranger to a party, he almost washed out of the program within weeks upon Meyer's rival.

Linsley rode it out and ended up as a fifth-round pick of the Green Bay Packers in 2014. When J.C. Tretter, Green Bay's veteran center, suffered an injury, Linsley took over as a starter.

It's a position he didn't relinquish until this summer—ironically, because of injury. It dampened an offseason in which he got married, but Linsley still has faith in himself.

From espn.com:

“It would be [mad about a wrecked offseason] I wasn’t confident in what I can do,” Linsley replied. “I’m not talking about arrogance or anything. But true confidence. To rest assured that you know what you can do. I’m just trying to get back healthy and then keep progressing as a player. Whenever I get back, it’s just a matter of taking it from there. You control what you can control, and there’s not much else you can do.”

For now, all he can do is watch and heal. Linsley said he first tore the hamstring during a workout shortly after the team’s offseason program began in April, before organized team activity practices began. When he went home to Ohio in June to train on his own, he thought the muscle had sufficiently healed, so he went back to the workout regimen he’d used the previous two offseasons.

He was wrong, and tore the muscle again in July, not long before the Packers reported to training camp. He’s been trapped on the PUP list ever since, while Tretter has shined. It’s a turnabout from two summers ago, when Tretter suffered a knee injury in the team’s third preseason game, opening the door for Linsley to take over as the starter as a rookie fifth-round pick.

Thankfully, the Packers didn't cut Linsley, who is still on his rookie deal. Aaron Rodgers loves him, so he'll get his chance to reclaim his starting spot.

Y'all already know which side of this story I'm putting my money.

 PRO BOWL PRYOR. The NFL should award Terrelle Pryor with a 2016 Pro Bowl spot based on this photo alone:

That outfit is almost as silky as this catch from yesterday's Browns–Buccaneers joint practice:


Get in on the Browns–Pryor bandwagon, folks. It will be at capacity by Week 4.

 THOSE WMDs. Give ConAir the sequel it deserves... Why 4 a.m. is the most productive hour... Stop turning me into your dream girl... The implosion of daily fantasy sports... Why Your Team Sucks: Houston Texans... Scientists discover Earth-like planet orbiting star closest to our sun.

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