Prior to the season, this game wouldn't have even been a question in my mind. Over the course of 9 games, Maryland has really allowed doubt to creep in. Ohio State COULD win this game. Will they? Time will tell.
Maryland, despite no crazy offensive superstar, has a good, efficient unit this year. The Terps are scoring on nearly 31% of their shots, get 62% of their shots on goal, and nearly average 12 goals per game. These are all good numbers.
But it's not quite Bobby Benson and the AARP crew in 2024. Super sophomore Braden Erksa (#10) leads Maryland in points with 30, and is tied for the team lead in goals with 20. Dan Maltz (#37) also has 20 tallies, but only 2 assists. Eric Malaver (#4) leads Maryland with 14 assists.
This Terrapin team isn't nearly as explosive as past versions. They play very methodically, taking fewer than 39 shots per game. Erksa does a lot of the heavy lifting, and Maltz does the off ball work to score goals. Ohio State's greatest weakness is off ball defense, and they will be very tested tomorrow.
Defense in 2024 is Maryland's greatest weakness. The Terrapins are awful. Teams are scoring on 30% of shots, get 60% of shots on cage, and barely take three fewer shots than Maryland per game. Ohio State has a bad, bad offense, but the Terps are bad on D. Going to be interesting watching to see which bad unit breaks first.
Maryland will start Ajax Zappitello (#1) in the coveted #1 jersey, even though that probably should be taken away with how bad the D is playing. Colin Burlace (#40) and Jackson Canfield (#50) will also likely start for Maryland down low.
Goalie Logan McNaney (#30) is having a trying season. With a save percentage under .500, the Terps aren't getting the production they need to paper over their defensive weaknesses. McNaney isn't a bad keeper, he nust hasn't been elite this season. Fyock is very much better than him. And Ohio State has a huge advantage here.
Faceoffs will tell the story of this game. And, unfortunately, Maryland is EXCELLENT. The Terps win 58% of faceoffs, largely thanks to Luke Wierman (#52). Ohio State HAS to be at 55% to get this win. And I don't think they hit 40%.
Special teams are a disaster for Maryland. They score on 36% of Man Up chances, which is in the poor tier of average, and allow teams to score over 50% of the time. That's outrageous. Not the Maryland squads of old, this team.
At first glance, Maryland is the obvious choice to win. They have the better offense by far. The better faceoff play. The better wins. The better coach. Everything.
Ohio State's path to victory is narrow, but attainable. Faceoffs have to be at least even. Offense has to get shots on net, at least 60%. The defense just has to keep shots predictable. And Fyock just needs a normal day. If this all happens, the Buckeyes win. I just don't think the offense is good enough on the road. Rivalry or no.
I think this game is much closer than it appears it should be. But Maryland wins.
Final prediction: Maryland 10, OSU 9 (OT)
Go Bucks!
Game is tomorrow at noon, BTN+.
