As someone who frequents the recruiting threads, there's been a lot of frustration with OSU's recent recruiting losses, mainly due to NIL. In particular, there's been frustration with OSU's apparent decision to abide by the terms of the House settlement as written, and avoid offering NIL/revenue-sharing deals to recruits that exceed the amounts that would be permitted by the settlement. Of note are the recent losses of Luke Wafle, Carter Meadows, KJ Ford, and Jakob Weatherspoon as a result of them receiving significantly higher offers from other schools. 

But Ohio State is going to be just fine, and through a combination of sourced reporting from On3's OSU site, examples of roster management from other top teams, and OSU's own recruiting history, I'll attempt to explain why. 

The bottom line is this: OSU is so good at recruiting that it, unlike almost any other school, can afford to take a wait-and-see approach to the House settlement.

Let's start with OSU's money: from what's been reported by Birm, Ohio State has a lot of money that it is willing to spend on HS recruits, if given the approval to do so by Ross Bjork and the athletic department. Money is not an issue. The willingness to spend it on HS recruits in a way that runs counter to the agreed-upon terms of the House settlement, which other teams are doing to beat OSU on the trail, is the issue. 

Got it? Well, here's the next part: no single recruiting class at OSU is going to derail the program. They can adjust with the number of players they take and the money they spend in both the transfer portal, as well as future recruiting classes. 

IF the House settlement fails, then OSU will be right back to spending big. When OSU does that, they will be able to improve upon what is already a really good recruiting class. Ohio State is REALLY good at recruiting, guys. The fact that they have such a strong class even when operating at a financial disadvantage is proof of that. If you add money to the equation, even more wins will come. 

I'll draw from what Texas has done with DT recruiting both in this class, and in the portal, as an example. Between the 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes, Texas signed a total of 3 DTs, one of which transferred after a position coach change. This was going to be a huge issue for them. Then, starting with the 2025 class, they turned on the money faucet for DTs, signing 3 DTs from HS, 4 from the portal, and have another 4 committed in the 2026 class. 

That might be overkill, but it's what a motivated, elite-recruiting program can do with some financial support. If the House settlement fails, I'd expect OSU to do something similar with DEs. 

The one issue I have with OSU's recruiting approach is that they generally won't pay elite HS recruits more than their current starters make. This, to me, doesn't make sense - players should be compensated based on talent and potential. If NIL existed in 2017, OSU may not have signed Chase Young because they weren't going to pay him more than Tyquan Lewis or Sam Hubbard. I'd be upset if that was the case. Hell, I think Lewis and Hubbard would be upset too. Elite talent comes at a premium, and OSU should be willing to pay it for more elite players.

tldlr; OSU is good enough at recruiting to adjust to the eventual fate of the House settlement. We should not be hyperfixating on every single loss - OSU will be fine in the long run.