Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data even now with the College Football Playoff committee releasing its late season rankings. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Ohio State Falls to No. 8
The nature of Ohio State's loss to Michigan State meant this would not be the most fun edition of the Poll Watch this season. However, the extent of the damage is kind of what we expected. The Buckeyes fell from No. 2 to No. 8 this week.
The distribution of votes were fairly normal this week. Ohio State's highest vote was No. 7, which appeared on several ballots. Ohio State appears lower than No. 10 on just six ballots and lower than No. 13 on just one ballot.
That one ballot? You guessed it: Jon Wilner. Wilner has Ohio State at No. 21 (!) following Saturday's loss. By comparison, he has Michigan State at No. 2, Iowa at No. 5, Michigan at No. 7, and Northwestern at No. 16 among the Big Ten teams on his ballot.
Behold Iowa, Your New B1G Overlords
Ohio State's loss makes Iowa the conference's lone unbeaten. It also makes one more spot open in the top four of the poll if that were any indication of Iowa's potential as playoff participant.
And lo, this week Iowa is the No. 3 team in the country. Iowa, a team with zero votes in the preseason and which last appeared in the AP Top 25 in Week 12 of the 2010 season, is nominally a playoff team right now.
The Hawkeyes surged into the AP Top 25 after a win at No. 19 Wisconsin and cracked the top ten after its bye on Week 8. However, voters were never quite sold on the Hawkeyes given its schedule. A lot of votes for Iowa clustered near the low end of the rankings.
This week, only two votes for Iowa rest outside the top six. Robert Gagliardi has Iowa at No. 7 and John Adams has Iowa at No. 8.
Gary Smits even has Iowa at No. 2 on his ballot.
If Ohio State is effectively eliminated from playoff contention after the Michigan State loss, I'll at least resign myself to feel good for a team like Iowa. You do you, Iowa.
Michigan's Ranking before "The Game"
Michigan's 39-point lead over Stanford solidifies No. 12 Michigan as the highest-ranked two-loss team in the country this week. Some voters are even quite bullish on the Wolverines.
Wilner's vote for Michigan at No. 7 is conspicuous, but Michigan has some single-digit votes this week to go with it. Michigan has No. 9 votes from Eric Avidon, Matt Charboneau, and Robert Gagliardi. The Wolverines even have a No.8 vote from Sam McKewon.
The Wolverines appear no lower than No. 15 on any ballot this week. That ballot was cast by Jimmy Burch.
On the eve of the season-finale clash with the Buckeyes, Michigan appears ahead of Ohio State on three ballots. Those ballots were cast by Eric Avidon, Sam McKewon, and, naturally, Jon Wilner.
Other Peculiar Observations
- Worried that AP voters were giving Florida a pass for its late-season struggles, including the overtime win against Florida Atlantic? Well, you're right... except for Josh Kendall of The State. Kendall had Florida at No. 12 last week and dropped the Gators from his ballot this week.
- The most conspicuous vote for a team not appearing the AP Top 25 goes to Sam McKewon's No. 19 vote for USC.
- John Clay voted for Tennessee at No. 24 this week and, for the life of me, I can't think of a defensible reason for that vote.
Your weekly Jon Wilner vs. the AP consensus update. pic.twitter.com/bz56PKtU1V
— Vico (@ourhonordefend) November 22, 2015
- Jon Wilner was consistent for one thing: his distaste of the Big XII. This week, though, he shot Baylor to No. 11 after having the Bears unranked after last week's home loss to Oklahoma.
- Houston fell from No. 13 to No. 21 and did not appear on 12 ballots this week.
- The AP Top 25 welcomes Toledo back to its ranks. Its highest rank on any ballot was No. 19 on votes cast by Bob Asmussen, Rob Long, and Keith Sargeant.
- Ole Miss scored a nice win that will likely cost Les Miles his job, but I'm still kind of on the "why are we ranking this team" bandwagon. Sam McKewon has my back on this. He was the only voter to not have Ole Miss on a ballot this week. Ole Miss' highest vote was a No. 15 selection from Eric Avidon.
- Stanford has three No. 8 votes (Eric Hansen, Laura Keeley, and Jon Wilner).
