For the first time in the history of College Football, 12 teams will make the College Football Playoff beginning this season.
With the new format now in effect, Eleven Warriors will put together a weekly outlook at which teams could be trending toward making the College Football Playoff based on the results we have available to us at the time.
Considering we’re only one week into the season, the data is extremely limited for now, but that keeps plenty of interesting scenarios in play.
The format of this piece will change slightly as the season continues. After a few more weeks, we’ll start forecasting what the College Football Playoff would look like if the season ended the following week. For now, here's how the 12-team CFP would be formatted if the season ended today, based on the latest Associated Press Top 25 Poll.
Here's what the 12-team Playoff would look like if based off of the AP's ranking this week.
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 3, 2024
New! Miami, Mizzou
Dropped: Michigan, FSU pic.twitter.com/3llsEObtoR
And once the CFP Committee begins unveiling its official rankings in November, we’ll also have plenty of reactions to that.
For now, here’s a conference-by-conference breakdown of who could be in contention for a CFP spot. As you’d expect, the categories and schools in them are subjective. In case you need a reminder, the 12-team CFP will consist of five conference champions (including one Group of Five team) and seven at-large selections.
Big Ten
Conference championship contenders: Ohio State, Oregon
At-large contenders: Penn State, Iowa, Michigan, USC
Darkhorse: Nebraska
Darkest of darkhorses: Rutgers
Breakdown: Ohio State arguably has the best roster in the country and the Buckeyes may not be tested until they play Iowa in Game 5 or Oregon in Game 6. Oregon has several injuries across its offensive line and looked underwhelming in a 10-point win against an FCS opponent, but the Ducks’ loaded roster still gives them the benefit of the doubt.
Penn State dominated West Virginia in Week 1, but the Nittany Lions did the same thing last year, so we’re not ready to declare them a conference contender quite yet. Michigan’s offense has major concerns, but the Wolverines are still loaded defensively and will quickly learn how they stack up against elite teams as Texas comes to Ann Arbor this weekend.
USC started its season off strongly with a marquee win over LSU in which it actually looked competent on defense. Iowa’s schedule remains very manageable outside of OSU and is doing this revolutionary thing called scoring points now. In all seriousness, if the Hawkeyes can just be serviceable on offense, they'll be a tough out for anyone with that defense.
Dylan Raiola might only be a freshman, but he’s the best quarterback the Cornhuskers have had in a long time and they have the benefit of a favorable schedule. Rutgers might earn some snickers for the inclusion on this list and a lot would have to go right for it to happen, but the only opponent on the schedule that’s a clear favorite over Rutgers is USC.
SEC
Conference championship contenders: Georgia, Texas, Alabama
At-large contenders: Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee
Darkhorse: LSU
Breakdown: Georgia played like the clear No. 1 team in the country on Saturday with a 34-3 dismantling of Clemson. Texas also looked every bit the part of a title contender with a 52-0 throttling of Colorado State and now faces a top-15 opponent in Michigan this weekend. Alabama didn’t miss a beat in Kalen DeBoer’s debut, winning 63-0 even if it was against Western Kentucky.
Missouri and Ole Miss both have schedules that give each school a clear path to earning a playoff berth. Oklahoma’s schedule is unforgiving, but it still has an extremely talented roster. The Nico Iamaleava hype at Tennessee isn’t slowing down any time soon. LSU is behind the eight-ball with an opening week loss to USC, but still has the offensive firepower to pull off a few needed upsets to earn an at-large.
ACC
Conference championship contenders: Miami, Clemson
Darkhorses: Louisville, NC State, Syracuse
Darkest of darkhorses: Georgia Tech
On life support: Florida State
Breakdown: Outside of maybe Miami, there’s not really any ACC team that has a clear path to an at-large selection at the moment, so this could have the makings of a one-bid league. Miami has the best roster on paper in the conference and looked more than competent in a blowout win over in-state rival Florida in Week 1. Clemson got humbled by Georgia, and while the Tigers can’t compete with the upper echelon of the sport anymore, they might have enough to compete for the ACC.
Louisville is a well-coached team but has looming matchups with Notre Dame, Clemson and Miami this season. NC State didn’t do much to write home about Week 1, but the talent is still there to raise a few eyebrows. Syracuse has a cupcake schedule but runs into Georgia Tech this weekend, so the early darkhorse status will likely end for one of those two programs on Saturday.
Florida State, woof. The Seminoles need to win out to have any prayer of making the CFP. Even losing in the conference title game probably wouldn’t get it done. They still face Clemson, Miami and Notre Dame so they could rack up quality wins, but the way they’ve played so far, all that looks to be is more L’s for Mike Norvell’s squad.
Big 12
Conference championship contenders: Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
Darkhorses: Kansas, Arizona, Iowa State
Breakdown: Like the ACC, the Big 12 could be a one-bid league. A lot of that stems from the parity of the league, as it's doubtful anyone in the conference makes it through the season unscathed. Utah and Oklahoma State are the clear league favorites, and Kansas State is optimistic about what it can accomplish with quarterback Avery Johnson.
Kansas has arguably the best coach in the conference and could be one of the more prolific offenses in the nation provided its quarterback and running back stay healthy. Arizona certainly will light up the scoreboard with the QB/WR combo of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, but the defense gave up 39 points to New Mexico in Week 1. Iowa State may be the opposite of Arizona with a strong defense but a weak offense.
Group of Five
Contenders: Boise State, Liberty, Memphis, UTSA, Toledo, App State
Breakdown: Admittedly, this category is probably the most subjective of the five and we’ll likely see a lot of teams come and go weekly. There could be a few Group of Five teams with similar resumés at the end of the year, but only one is going to the CFP.
Boise State has a chance to do itself a lot of favors this weekend by keeping the game as close as it can against Oregon so the committee has a lot to think about. Beyond that, the most important thing for the Broncos is to win out the remainder of their games assuming they ultimately fall to the Ducks.
Liberty has a tailor-made schedule to go undefeated, and assuming that happens, it’ll be interesting if the committee puts them in the playoff or rewards a one-loss Group of Five team that played a Power Four opponent, which Liberty does not.
Memphis suddenly has a very beatable Power Four opponent on its schedule in Florida State and also faces UTSA, South Florida and Tulane, so coming away unscathed from that would probably put it at the top of the G5 mix.
UTSA has the unfortunate pleasure of facing Texas, but the rest of the schedule seems manageable outside of a home game against Memphis in November.
Toledo plays Mississippi State, and while it’s unlikely the Rockets win that game, you can’t count it out. The Rockets stay in this section as the MAC representative for now, though Miami (Ohio) would have earned consideration if it had beaten Northwestern.
App State is the preseason favorite in the Sun Belt and will face a Clemson team licking its wounds this weekend. It also has the challenge of taking on Liberty, Coastal Carolina and James Madison.
The other likely at-large team
Is Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish already passed a tough test against Texas A&M on Saturday and Louisville and USC are the toughest remaining opponents on their schedule. They do play Georgia Tech and Florida State, though it remains to be seen how formidable the Yellow Jackets are, and the Seminoles look toothless.
