Six walk-off drives against top 10 opponents in just five and a half seasons.
You cannot say Ohio State football has been boring under Ryan Day. He's averaged at least one game-ending parade-planner or pants-shitter per season since taking control of the Ohio State football program. Ohio cardiologists have been on notice since 2019.
If mixed sports metaphors are too confusing, walking off an opponent happens when the offense ends a game with its final possession. The Buckeyes are not just getting these moments every year - they are taking place in literally every month. Those six walk-offs were in September (1) October (1) November (1) December (2) and January (1). This is Diversity and Inclusion.
The Day chatter post-Oregon has been stuck on his record in quote-unquote big games but peel back the plaques and tangles wrapped around your smart parts and you'll realize it's deeper than that: Day has coached zero walk-off games against sub-top 10 opponents. Those are effectively over when the 4th quarter begins.
Most of the schedule, rightfully, is defeated on Signing Day - this is the perk of a privileged program. As a result, Day is 0-0 in walk-off opportunities against teams ranked lower than no.9 nationally. It's the games against the best that are scrutinized, and Day said prior to the season the Buckeyes had to leave no doubt in those matchups this year.
Day's teams HAVE BEEN good enough to beat every single team just about every single season without needing to walk them off.
This could be interpreted in two ways - one, hey perhaps win the game without needing to rely on a walk-off drive. Easier said than done, but also The Unattainable Ohio State Standard which comes with earned ridicule and guaranteed disappointment. Just blow everyone out - it's easier that way.
Two, if that opportunity arises, walk the opponent off the field. It arose for the sixth time in his tenure on Saturday in Eugene. Unfortunately, the Buckeyes left some doubt.
Day had to address it this summer because they keep happening. Compare his six walk-offs to his old boss Urban Meyer, who only had two in seven seasons - the Clemson Orange Bowl (one-armed Braxton Miller threw an interception to end it down by five) and the epic 2016 Michigan game (shit happens, bum juice).
You can slide in Purdue 2012 (the legend of Kenny G) to include a garden variety opponent, but unlike Urban those have never been Day's issue. His teams have put lousy and decent teams away with ruthless efficiency. It's the canceled parades which are hard for anyone to ignore.
Day's Buckeyes routinely get that backyard, bottom-of-the-9th opportunity with blinding lights above them - and they either strike out spectacularly or clumsily find a way to escape. Winning is everything. Details are stubborn.
Here is a frame from each of those six walk-offs since 2019. Look at the scores and clocks.
Top L-R: 2019 CFP Semifinal final drive, 2022 Rose Bowl final drive, 2022 CFP Semifinal final drive. Bottom L-R: 2023 Notre Dame final drive, 2023 Michigan final drive, 2024 Oregon final drive.
Ohio State has the ball on the opponent's side of the field with seconds remaining every single time, it's the stuff childhood sports fantasies are made of. Short summaries:
- 2019 CFP Semifinal: Walk-off drive crushed by miscommunication between Justin Fields and Chris Olave resulting in an endzone interception (L)
- 2022 Rose Bowl: A shell-shocked Day called timeout eight seconds too early, ceding the walk-off and forcing another kickoff by Parker Fleming's special teams to a Utah return unit which had already housed one earlier in the game (W)
- 2022 CFP Semifinal: Abrupt puckering on what should have been a walk-off, squandering the final minute and settling for a long field goal attempt which landed in another zip code (L)
- 2023 Notre Dame: An epic final drive featuring a dropped interception and the Irish defense only sending 10 players onto the field for each of the final two snaps. Sometimes the pants-shitting is on the other sideline. Inexplicably, Ohio State attempted an untimed PAT after the touchdown and risked a game-tying block/return instead of kneeling on it (W)
- 2023 Michigan: Walk-off drive crushed by a Kyle McCord interception (L)
- 2024 Oregon: A walk-off drive and a high-percentage field goal were in play, but abruptly transformed into what was already the prevailing Day narrative in these opportunities - the consequence of leaving doubt (L)
Don't jump to the comments to defend They Were One Play Away University just yet. They Took a Top Five Team to the Brink University doesn't need your breathless defense. They Were Right There and Got Unlucky University will continue to be a top five brand and beat every team it's supposed to without requiring a final at-bat.
The guy in charge talked extensively about Leaving No Doubt. He's right. Doubt has been unkind.
These bright lights are what coaches and dippy sportswriters alike insist are why Ohio State players choose Ohio State. The problem is the teams of the past six seasons have behaved the waning moments of those games like they're surprised to be there. Even in the two they didn't lose, the jitters were practically fluorescent.
The fear of screwing up trickles down. Last week Josh Fryar spoke of how much he didn't like these types of games when he was chosen to speak to the media. Denzel Burke called Oregon a big test to see where (he's) at, while during the same session saying he was built for games like this.
Burke was the first player to say natty or bust back in March. Lathan Ransom, who had a couple of brutal whiffs including one on Dillon Gabriel's touchdown run talked to the media about winning the perimeter and making open-field tackles. Gee Scott Jr. talked about toughness and the albatross hanging around his head coach's neck.
The Buckeyes don't command The Moment. It commands them.
It all sounded great. It turned out to be gruesome, oddly-specific foreshadowing. Honestly, none of our game previews came anywhere close to matching what the players provided when given microphones.
Day beat Notre Dame last year on a drive where his team won the margins for a change (no dropped game-ending interceptions, putting 11 guys on the field every play, you know - the margins) and then promptly invited an 86-year old retired coach to step outside from whatever assisted living facility he was sleeping in.
He's emotional. You love to see it, but you also kind of hate to see it too. It's insight into the team's temperature when a parade or a pants-shitting is in the balance. There's a reason Jim Harbaugh waited until after Meyer retired to begin playing head games with Ohio State's head coach.
Day's teams - outside of the 2020 CFP title game one missing a third of the roster due to contact tracing - have been good enough to beat every single team just about every single season without needing to walk them off. The Buckeyes were blowing out Clemson and Georgia before allowing monster comebacks and coming up short with their own.
The lazy reason is toughness, which is overused and ambiguous when discussing football. The correct one is edge. The Buckeyes don't command The Moment. It commands them.
In order to take Michigan's crown away the Buckeyes must beat at least five top 10 opponents - and possibly four in a row to end the season. They have some things to figure out. No one loves bye weeks but the timing of the current one is advantageous.
These next four months could produce six years-worth of opportunities. Let's get Situational.
OPENER | EVERYWHERE THAT LARRY WENT
Ohio State defensive line coach Larry Johnson motions to players during the spring football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on April 16, 2022. © Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / IMAGN Network
I started business school when the financial crisis began and finished it after it had ended. My day job boss at the time had gotten an MBA 15 years earlier. After I graduated, he told me, "congratulations - we have the same papers but completely different degrees."
He was right. When he was in school, Sarbanes-Oxley didn't exist and financial reporting was a different sport than it became. Business Ethics wasn't required curriculum. My 600-level finance classes had us stripping apart collateralized debt obligations into individual toxic mortgage-backed securities they were built upon to see and understand how all the chaos unfolded.
Since my broken brain is adhered to college football, I think about that whenever Larry Johnson trots out four down linemen to rush the passer the exact same way he taught LaVar Arrington to at Penn State 27 football seasons ago.
The sport has changed quite a bit. He has not, nor has he ever been forced to adapt.
Ohio State has so much seasoned superstar talent that it might be hard to understand how the defensive coordinator and defensive line coach cannot align on a unified strategy. Johnson runs defensive line operations with a degree of tenure which shouldn't be permissible in a top-down organization.
On Saturday night with Oregon in the red zone and in short yardage, Tyliek Williams - by far, Ohio State's best lineman (disclosure, he's no.1 in my Buckeye 20 ballot) was on the sideline. Johnson's rotations and formations are often in conflict with Jim Knowles' scheme. It's been an open secret since Day hired him to run the defense after 2021.
We're into a third season of wondering what The Jack does and if the queen on Knowles' chessboard will ever be allowed to make its debut in Columbus.
Knowles earned his way to Columbus via the monster he was able to construct in Stillwater with talent Ohio State would never consider recruiting. But he's never been able to bring the now-mythical Jack position into the Ohio State program because, well, that encroaches on the defensive line's plans.
And that has its own boss. In shitty Corporate America parallels, mediocre department heads often tell others to stay in their own lane whenever their effectiveness is being questioned cross-functionally. That appears to be what's happening at the Woody.
This kind of insubordination-adjacent behavior would be fine if the defensive line didn't completely vaporize in big games. A decade ago, Ohio State's rushmen walked off opponents with sacks. Unfortunately, the factory where Bosas are manufactured has run dry and there's only ever been one Chase Young.
A decade later, Johnson's unit is food for capable offensive lines. No one in his room made a single play in Eugene that you can remember. They only helped contribute to the number of plays the Ducks made that you're still having troubling quantifying.
Burke had the worst night of his life, but that was made possible because covering any receiver for seven seconds is impossible. His nightmare was aided and abetted by a quarterback given seven seconds of comfort to make an unbothered pass.
Talent can be a detriment, which is why Ohio State might be able to dig out of its OL predicament through the necessity of creativity, urgency and crisis management. Johnson's unit demonstrates none of that. All those 5-star guys, why bother with deception or creativity?
Preparing for The Rushmen is an exercise in simplicity - offensive lines know exactly what they'll see on Saturdays. They just have to be good enough to handle it, and - brace yourself - the teams beating the Buckeyes generally have those types of players available.
But this impasse and chronic stagnation is not Johnson's or Knowles' fault. You have to look further up the org chart to see who's to blame, and to that guy's credit he finally made some CEO moves during the offseason which were long overdue. He executed the easy and obvious ones, like removing nepo babies and unqualified baristas from the payroll.
He declined to act on the harder issues, or at least this one. Johnson is a legend, and his Ohio State tenure will conclude when the clock runs out on his contract in 2026. In the meantime, perhaps something should be done about his unit's performance in what critics call talent-equated games.
We're into a third season of wondering what The Jack does and if the queen on Knowles' chessboard will ever be allowed to make its debut in Columbus. There's exactly one reason why it hasn't yet, and his picture is atop this section.
As for what Day should do about it, this is not a new lesson in staff management only a modern coaching curriculum would teach. People management principles are timeless. If you're Ohio State's head coach, you shouldn't allow a one-day impasse to become a three-season crisis.
You're the boss. You get to decide, and indecision isn't a decision.
INTERMISSION
The Solo
The last time we had to tolerate the unforgivable phrase Defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines it was following the 1997 season. This year, intermissions will pay homage to that cursed year's Billboard Hot 100.
It's always been amusing to me that Hang on Sloopy, which contains some of the thirstiest lyrics a man can write about a woman is both Ohio's state anthem and a reliable rally banger in stadiums across the state.
Fairly recently, Michigan appropriated its own rock song - The Killers' Mr. Brightside - in the Sloopy position after the 3rd quarter. It's an emo anthem about being cheated on set to upbeat music and easier to sing along to than any record by The Smiths, so it's a perfect fit in Ann Arbor.
Tubthumping became the world's 3rd quarter anthem about five minutes after its 1997 release. It contains no nuance whatsoever - and a trumpet solo. Let's answer our two questions.
Is the musician in the video actually playing the trumpet?
Horn obligations are managed by Jude Abbott, who appears throughout the video on stage with the rest of the Chumbas and is filmed playing the trumpet in line with where her solo appears on the record. We have no choice but to believe. VERDICT: Yes, inconclusive.
does this trumpet solo slap?
Solos carry varying duties in songs - sometimes they're there just to help you catch your breath. Other times, they're building to a crescendo - in this case they're a little break between repurposed Danny Boy lyrics and the most shoutable refrain of the year.
We're catching our breath and building to a crescendo. Get yourself a solo that can do both. This is arguably the untrickiest intermission exercise we've ever had here, since there's no such thing as a bad trumpet solo. Taps, which isn't a solo but haha too bad I get to make the rules. Spinning Wheel by Blood, Sweat & Tears. The Royal Scam by Steely Dan.
And Tubthumping by Chumbawumba. There's your top four, all-time. VERDICT: Slaps
The Bourbon
There is a bourbon for every situation. Sometimes the spirits and the events overlap, which means that where bourbon is concerned there can be more than one worthy choice.
Skrewball. A peanut butter & headache sandwich.
We're five years removed from the last time three words which shouldn't exist in succession - peanut butter whiskey - appeared in this space. Situationally this was paired with Greg Mattison leaving Ann Arbor for Columbus.
That was awkward. Like, peanut butter whiskey-awkward. Skrewball was a new entrant into a category I generally loathe, which is flavored whiskeys - the short reasoning is one of my most conspiratorial takes, which is flavoring masks shitty whiskey that couldn't be sold otherwise. It's a scrap play for businesses to unload undrinkable runoff.
But you're allowed to like what you like. If you enjoy Fireball for example, buy a first-shelf whiskey that doesn't suck (Quality House, $12 a handle - and it's great!) and drop some Red Hots into it BAM cinnamon whiskey better than and cheaper than Fireball.
Peanut butter-ifying whiskey is a little more complicated. My position, as an enthusiast of both peanut butter and whiskey is you shouldn't mix them. But it's good with ice, Kahlua and Bailey's okay, I love that for you. I'll eat Reese's and sip something reputable. The efficiency gained by marrying two elite consumables isn't worth the squandered enjoyment of keeping them separated.
Skrewball is available most everywhere booze is sold. Pay over $16 for a bottle only if you feel like losing twice.
CLOSER | OCTOBER SURPRISE
Oct 12, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) celebrates scoring a touchdown with offensive lineman Seth McLaughlin (56) during the second half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Brace yourself for Loser Talk: Saturday was the best possible loss for Team Natty or Bust.
Set aside Ohio State losing 40% of its offensive line and most indispensable player as well as its most trustworthy blocking tight end - which, wow I didn't expect my whole body tensing up while typing that sentence. Still, I don't have anxiety about Chip Kelly Chip Kellying his available resources. He's done more with less before.
The Buckeyes are now closer to Bust than Natty, and we're in a bye week in October. Finally, a hard lesson being learned in time for something to be done about it inside of the same season. No bowl game opt-outs when you lose in October. No nine-month did-a-cat-shit-in-my-mouth-while-I-was-sleeping aftertaste.
Just a week to build healthy urgency, apply some in-season lessons and come to the hard realization that national championships are not won on Signing Day. That's the day Marshall lost to the Buckeyes last month. It's when Purdue will lose next month.
Ohio State has no choice but to be strategic with this defense and finally, actually focus on margins.
Oregon kicked a heater directly at Caleb Downs wearing a nameless no.48 jersey on special teams because they wanted to steal a possession if the conditions allowed for minimal risk. They developed little tricks we saw as well as others they kept pocketed - because creativity and inexhaustible ideas for finding any possible way to manufacture an advantage was their objective.
If the teams play again (probably?) those unused tricks will likely be revealed.
Oregon won on the margins, which is where Day's teams always lose these types of games. The Ducks botched a PAT but prevented the Buckeyes from two decisive points on the same play. Ask yourself which team won that sequence.
PERHAPS losing a walk-off in the middle of a season instead of at the end of one can finally create some changes for how this program operates when everything is on the line.
Believing Ohio State is talented enough that it doesn't need to explore the nooks and crannies of where advantages might be hiding is a recipe for losing games to single digit-ranked opponents who punch up. Oregon's appetite for being as clever as necessary rivals whatever NIL program Columbus has to offer. There's no reason Ohio State cannot do both at an elite level.
Oregon won on the margins. The Ducks won with creativity. The Buckeyes lost with predictability.
The good news is this doesn't require a drastic behavior change. No one was shocked to see Emeka Egbuka line up in the backfield because the team has a weird habit of telling on itself to the media during fall practices. It was still creative when it actually happened.
We saw the full house backfield on literally the first play of the Spring Game, so seeing it again isn't necessarily a wrinkle but normalization of something opponents are forced to prepare for but cannot effectively shut down.
Back in 2019 Day's staff saw something on film while preparing for Maryland and executed what is still the coolest onside kick I've ever seen while already up 14-0 in a game where they scored 73 points. Remember those hurried 3rd and short Justin Fields pre-tush push tush pushes? Innovative. Clever. It's still there.
Two seasons ago the Buckeyes entered their bye week looking formidable, if not ferocious coming off a dominating win in East Lansing. They played uncomfortable football after their break, culminating in a catastrophic Stalions-aided loss in the game they couldn't get out of their minds throughout the back side of the schedule.
Maybe losing a walk-off in the middle of a season instead of at the end of one can finally create some changes for how this program operates when everything is on the line. If they had coasted to the type of win that allowed backups to burn clock in the 4th quarter at Autzen instead, there's a strong chance they'd keep trying to win matchup games with their recruiting classes instead of coaching.
That didn't happen, and October timing allows them to actually do something about it this season. Two years ago a series of upsets allowed the team which was kept out of the endzone in the 2nd half against Michigan to backdoor a playoff spot. Side note - no matter how salty that scandal makes you, Michigan shutting out CJ Stroud and then allowing a trillion points to TCU - whom the Wolverines weren't able to advance-scout - will always be as objectively hilarious as it is damning.
Anyway, Ohio State looked like a completely different program in Atlanta - fearless, creative, looking for any advantages (but still allowing special teams to be operated by a guy who should have been washing dogs at PetSmart - it was better, not perfect).
Unfortunately, the way the Buckeyes met The Moment at the Peach Bowl created the necessity for a walk-off win and it cost them a layup natty. That's their attainable goal right now.
An October loss - no series of fortunate upsets required - should be enough to directionally push the team and its exposed defense in a similar direction. The Buckeyes came out of their bye two seasons ago looking like a complete different team. Perhaps they can do that again.
Thanks for getting Situational today. Go Bucks. Beat Bye. Come to Eleven Dubgate 12 on 10/26!
