Every year I rank teams to see who would be in my top 4 compared to the committee. I lean with a bias toward the Power 5 with a chance for the Group of 5 to get in at least. So my criteria every year is below for getting in and seeding on normal years. If I was on the committee I am limiting my pool to 7 teams every year. Power 5, Best of Group of 5, and best Independent. Then I rank the best 4 from there.
| Overall Criteria for Rankings/Seedings | Notes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conference Champion | |
| 2 | Record | |
| 3 | OPP Winning % | FCS teams count as 0-[Total Games Played] |
| 4 | OPP with Winning Records |
| Group of 5 | Criteria for Jumping a Power 5 Conference Champion |
|---|---|
| 1 | Must have BETTER record than a Power 5 champ |
| 2 | Must have a BETTER OPP winning % than a Power 5 champ |
| Independents | Criteria for Jumping a Power 5 Conference Champion | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Must have at least an equal or better record than a Power 5 champ | Minimum 8 Power 5 teams must be scheduled (If not then they will be subject to Group of 5 criteria with no CCG being weighted heavily) |
| 2 | Must have a BETTER OPP winning % than a Power 5 champ |
Past Years:
| 2014 | Sugar | Rose | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSU | OSU | 2 |
| 4 | Oregon | Bama | 3 |
| 2015 | Cotton | Orange | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bama | MSU | 2 |
| 4 | Clemson | Oklahoma | 3 |
| 2016 | Peach | Fiesta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bama | Clemson | 2 |
| 4 | Penn State | Washington | 3 |
| 2017 | Sugar | Rose | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | Clemson | 2 |
| 4 | OSU | Oklahoma | 3 |
| 2018 | Cotton | Orange | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clemson | Bama | 2 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | Notre Dame | 3 |
| 2019 | Peach | Fiesta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OSU | LSU | 2 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | Clemson | 3 |
So this year is just a mess with teams not playing an equal number of games. So, I figured an adjustment of some sort needed to be made to compare teams equally. For example OSU has a better record this year than others but other teams had more chances of losing. That is a huge benefit to OSU and the teams of the BIG/PAC.
So what I would have decided this year is to reward the teams who got more games in by lowering their game total to that of the lowest Power 5 champs. In this case OSU and Oregon only played 6 games this year. So for the others, since they had more opportunities to get beat, I would lower their game total to 6 to match OSU/Oregon, and would only factor in their 6 best wins (based on OPP win %) as long as they had more total wins than 6. Group of 5 and Independents I factored in 7-0 records. So the champs are Bama, Clemson, OSU, Oklahoma, and Oregon. Best Group of 5 is Cincy. Best Independent is BYU. Bama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and OSU all were considered at 6-0. Cincy at 7-0 and BYU at 7-0 since they need better records and they played more games. Coastal based on their best 7 wins had a lower OPP win % than Cincy. So this year I would put the final four as such:
| 2020 | Rose | Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bama | Clemson | 2 |
| 4 | UC | Oklahoma | 3 |
I know Oklahoma had 2 more losses but they also played 4 more games. You can say all you want OSU would not have lost any other 4 games (I agree) but we will never know since they were not played. UC once you factor in their best 7 wins had the conference championship, a better record this year, and a better OPP winning % with those 7 best wins. I figured if we wanted to be fair and reasonable we lower that total game amount for others to match OSU/Oregon, then take their 6 best wins. This rewards teams for getting more games in and is comparing OSU's 6 best wins against the others 6 best wins.
EDIT: Scrap the 6 game idea. I overthought this. However, I posted what I would have had factoring in my normal criteria in the comments for 2020. Ultimately, my point was using metrics or set criteria that every team knows about should be how the teams are determined. That way all 130 teams know what is needed to get in the playoff. There is no guesswork for polls or a committee.
