I will firstly admit that I have never been a huge fan of NIL in college sports, but mostly because it would just make the rich programs richer and make lower level football teams obsolete. Now, I fear it might be the "legal" recipe to turn college football into professional wrestling.
The crux of the problem is the huge amount of money that is made (and lost) on betting by very rich people. These same very rich people are also some of the key providers for NIL money that is flowing to college athletes.
How much of a stretch is it to assume some of these very rich people could extend bonuses based on outcomes in games, particularly to players who don't generally get big NIL deals, but who greatly impact game outcomes (punters, kickers, O line).
I suppose this risk was there before NIL, but now it can be done without questions asked. It scares the shit out of me that I will now always question why some obscure player commits a dumb penalty for no reason, or a player misses a key block at a critical point in the game... Or an entire defensive line looks like the JV version in a key game where literally hundreds of millions of dollars are riding on the outcome.
If you don't think it could happen here, I would like to hear your opinions as to why. I had this epiphany last night and now I wonder if I will ever see college sports the same way again.
Before the tin foil hat comments proliferate the replies, consider that you probably already distrust the intentions of the mega rich and powerful. If you truly think those who could buy and sell you 100 times give two shits about the ethics of manipulating game outcomes just to feed their own ego, you are living in La la land.