With a 12 team playoff being the settled on as the field size and the criteria for making the playoffs being agreed up fans can look back and wonder, "what if". I wanted to know what the data would look like had there been a 12 team playoff during the entire modern era (beginning with the BCS era through 2021). I came across this fantastic article from The Athletic ($) breaking down just that and I wanted to share some of their findings -
In a 24 year period, this is what we would be looking at:
- Only (1) 4 loss team in the past 24 years would have made a 12 team playoff
- 66!!! different schools would have made at least one playoff appearance
- Ohio State (followed by Oklahoma) would have been the greatest beneficiary at making the playoffs, 18 times in the past 24 years. That's a 75% average.
- Wisconsin would have made the playoffs 8 times, Michigan 7, Penn State 7, Michigan State 6, Iowa 4, Nebraska 4, Illinois 1, Indiana 1, and Maryland 1.
- Other notable teams that would have made the playoffs in the past 24 years
- Coastal Carolina (1), Hawaii (1), Kansas (1), Marshall (1), Miami (OH) (1), NIU (1),
Tulane (1), Western Michigan (1)
- Conference breakdown of bids
- SEC: 68
- B1G: 52
- Big 12 50
- Pac 10/12: 39
- ACC: 29
- Big East (11)
- Mountain West (10)
- Also the MAC would have sent 4 teams to the playoffs
On average 2.8 SEC teams would have made the playoffs in any given year and 2.16 B1G teams would have made the playoffs.
Looking at some of the juicy matchups on campus we would have seen over the past 24 years:
1998: Wisconsin @ Florida
1999: Penn State @ Kansas State, Florida @ Wisconsin, Michigan State @ Michigan
2000: Notre Dame @ Oregon State, Oregon @ Florida
2001: LSU @ Nebraska, Oklahoma @ Florida, Maryland @ Tennessee
2002: Florida State @ Iowa, Michigan @ Washington State, Texas @ OU, ND @ KSU
2003: Georgia @ OU, Miami (OH) (Big Ben's squad) @ Ohio State, Miami @ Tennessee
2004: Iowa @ Texas
2005: TCU @ Ohio State, WVU @ Oregon, Auburn @ Miami
2006: Arkansas @ Michigan, ND @ LSU, Oklahoma @ Wisconsin, Auburn @ Boise State
2007: Florida @ Georgia
2008: Cincinnati @ Texas, TCU @ Alabama, Ohio State @ Texas Tech, Boise @ PSU
2009: LSU @ Florida, Iowa @ Oregon, Georgia Tech @ Ohio State
2010: LSU @ Ohio State!!!!, Boise State @ OU, Michigan State @ Arkansas
2011: TCU @ Alabama
2012: Boise State @ ND, Texas A&M @ Oregon, LSU @ Georgia
2013: Oregon @ Ohio State!!!
2014: Boise State @ Baylor, Ole Miss @ Michigan State!!!
2015: Houston @ Iowa, UNC @ Ohio State, Florida State @ ND!!!
2016: Western Michigan @ Ohio State, Florida State@ @ Mich!!!, USC @ Wisconsin!!
2017: Washington @ Wisconsin, Miami @ Auburn, Penn State @ USC!!
2018: Penn State @ Notre Dame!!, LSU @ UGA, Florida @ Michigan!!!
2019: Penn State @ Baylor, Florida @ Wisconsin!!!
2020: Indiana @ Texas A&M, Georgia @ Cincinnati!!!
2021: Utah @ Notre Dame, Michigan State @ Ohio State, Oklahoma State @ Ole Miss
One final note: There were 28 (3) loss teams that would have made the playoffs over the last 24 years. On average slightly over 1 (1.16 to be exact) 3 loss team will make the playoffs per year.
What do you guys think being the data laid out like this? Let me know your thoughts below!
