I have been a big contributor on the recruitment threads for the last years - never with inside info but always following along. I came to realize how critical recruitment was to the success of the team, and I liked knowing who the players were so I could follow them more.
Recruitment reporting is dead, and it’s not worth following in the same depth as before. The recruitment dudes have a vested interest in not saying this of course, so you wind up with stuff like Ari Wasserman praising the Miami and Oregon coaches and criticizing Florida State when the only difference between the three is the pile of collective money and when they were able to deploy it. Reading recruitment pieces is just being gaslit again and again, and watching these guys with their pants down and everyone pretending they have invisible silk clothes.
2022 we were all told that it wasn’t fair to say A&M bought its class, and also - what’s wrong with players making money and also - why doesn’t your school just do the same thing? This year, it’s that, apparently, Miami is suddenly great on the trail after sucking on the field. Sure, got it.
Which brings me to this year and next year. OSU did a really good job this year of holding a good class together when the game has changed. At the end of the day, they were able to do the old fashioned thing with at least half of a class - build relationships, sign early, hang on to them. But most of the guys they did that with were Ohio (7), Indiana (2) kids. On the national side, they had as much likelihood of losing a commit as of holding on to one.
Next year will be much worse. There is no way that any top 50 player watching this year did not learn important lessons: hold out and leverage for offers until the last possible minute. I would do it - there is so much money on the table at the end, and from good programs. Next year, I would be shocked if OSU has even a 50% convert rate on players who commit at some point in the process, and it is going to have to just stockpile a bunch of money for the last 48 hours and be aggressive flipping other guys. That’s the game. OSU adjusts, and it will play the game next year and it will be fine for the team - but what's the point of watching during the 11 month buildup to the auction at the end?
Anyway, my point is - I have lost the interest in tracking for the class of 25 because I genuinely don’t think the relationships, the things the kids say, etc. will predict who joins this class. I always thought players' top 5 or 10 lists were dumb but now - truly, who cares? For Birm and Kurelic and everyone else with jobs in the industry - I liked their stuff when there was inside intel, but that industry is dead now. The kids are not going to tell them the truth when so much money is at stake. I will be psyched to find out next December who OSU signed, but I'm just not interested in hearing who has a great relationship with Coach Alford and talks to him every day when we all know that's just not how decisions get made any more.
