I was going to post this in the TCUN scandal thread but didn't want it to get overlooked or lost in the middle of the current thread. If the Mods differ from my opinion, feel free to move it or delete it.

1. Connor Stalions: Stalions is the face of the Michigan cheating scandal and we all seem to focus on him and only him. This cheating scandal isn't about one person but is an elaborate scheme involving many other people analyzing the data collected by Stalions and associates. There is no way that Stalions is gathering all of the signing information and deciphering that data by himself. As with Clemson, there are probably 20 or more individuals involved with matching up the plays with the opponent's signs being used during the game. Due to the vast extent of the cheating scheme, there is no way that anyone on the staff (Harbaugh, his son, OC Moore, DC Minter) could not have known what was transpiring. To trust to use that information during games, approval had to come from the highest levels of the coaching staff. 

2. Everyone is mad at the NCAA for not "lowering the hammer" on Michigan and imposing a ban on the team. The NCAA currently does not have a way to immediately punish a school for rules violations (although the NCAA is looking into changing its by-laws to allow immediate punishment). The NCAA must first fully investigate the alleged violations and, when finished, present the school with a Notice of Allegations. The next step is to give the school 90 days to respond to the allegations. After the response is received by the NCAA, it is examined and the NCAA then decides on the punishment and advises the school of those punishments. 

Since the NCAA had no way it could legitimately enact an early punishment on Michigan, the NCAA shared some of its findings with the Big Ten Conference. Under the sportsmanship policy, the conference did have a way to punish Michigan immediately. Unfortunately, the conference's hands were tied because Fox (headed by a Michigan alumnus) was present at the meeting to decide any possible immediate punishment. Fox pays a lot of money to the Big Ten Conference and, I assume, made it clear that the Big Ten should not punish Michigan with any kind of postseason or in-season  ban because of the loss of commercial revenue that could occur if Michigan was eliminated from postseason play with several games left in the regular season. Therefore the only punishment was a weak 3 game suspension of Harbaugh (game day only). With the lack of integrity already shown by Michigan and Harbaugh, I have my doubts that Harbaugh didn't communicate with someone on the coaching staff during the game and/or during halftime of the games. 

3. I believe that the NCAA is moving slow for several reasons. The NCAA is making sure that it has all relevant information from the investigation before compiling its Notice of Allegations against Michigan. I also believe that the NCAA has been slowed with its investigation by the FBI also investigating the Michigan program. 

Not only has Michigan been accused of advance scouting of opponents and recording its opponents play signals, others in the program are facing more serious crimes. Michigan has a staffer that was viewing material that is considered a sex crime, another that is suspected of contact with an underage girl, and there are accusations that Michigan also hacked into Ohio State computers to get practice footage of Ohio State. (That explains how, even though Ohio State was aware of the cheating scandal in 2022 and changed its signals, Michigan still knew the new signals). Until these issues are fully investigated by the FBI, I wouldn't think that the NCAA will issue a Notice of Allegations, for fear of compromising the FBI's investigation into the computer crimes.

4. Many on this site have expressed fear that Michigan will get a "slap on the wrist" from the NCAA. I do not believe this to be true. The NCAA will treat Michigan as a repeat offender because of the COVID  era violations along with Harbaugh denying that those violations ever happened. The NCAA, in the past, has shown mercy to schools who "cooperate" with an investigation. Michigan has pushed back at every opportunity and has refused to cooperate with the NCAA from the start of the investigation, going as far as continually denying that any violations even occurred. 

I believe that the NCAA will, eventually, come down hard on Michigan. Lack of Institutional Control will be the harshest penalty, along with lying to the NCAA. Harbaugh (both Jim and Jay), OC Moore, and DC Minter will be hit with 3-5 year Show Cause penalties. Michigan will be hit with a 1-2 year postseason ban and a reduction in scholarships (perhaps 3 a year for the next three years). Not sure how the NCAA can enforce the scholarship reductions since Michigan currently has numerous players on its roster who have everything paid for through NIL. It is a loophole that they are taking advantage of and, at this time, there is no rule against it. 

This is not "insider information" that I have presented, only deductive reasoning from all that has been posted through articles and forum posts. Take from it what you will. All I am saying is try to remain patient and let the NCAA finish up its investigation before stepping off the ledge.

If you have made it this far, thank you for reading my opinion on the eventual outcome of the Michigan cheating scandal. I will now return to my self-imposed exile from commenting on Eleven Warrior articles and forum topics.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!