I'll use Sagarin Predictor ratings primarily (although as the season goes on, will use more of the records of teams to best predict conference winners, etc...).

1) Texas vs.

8) Oregon vs.
9) Notre Dame

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4) Utah vs.

5) Alabama vs.
12) Boise St.

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2) Ohio State vs.

7) Ole Miss vs.
10) Oregon

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3) Miami vs.

6) Georgia vs.
11) Penn State

1) Texas vs. 8) Tennesssee

Predictor sorts them, so it's chalk first round.

Texas defeats Oregon
Ohio State defeats Ole Miss
Georgia defeats Miami
Alabama defeats Utah

Semis:
Georgia Def. Ohio State
Texas Def. Alabama

Texas Def. Georgia

Right now Sagarin has Texas a step ahead, but Georgia, OSU, Texas all within a point of each other. Slight gap to Ole Miss after that.