An interesting item that Bill Connelly from ESPN puts out every week is postgame win expectancy - i.e., toss the stats in the hopper and it says how often you’d expect a team to win and an expected margin.
Honestly, I expected our game to be pretty close, maybe 60% OSU. I was very surprised to see it was 99.5% with an ‘expected’ margin of 20.4 points. For comparison, that’s better than the MSU game that we won by 31, which was 98.5% and 17.3 points, respectively.
I’m not here to say yesterday’s performance was acceptable because we certainly didn’t win by 21, but it’s interesting context on the game. Down to down, we were apparently much better than Nebraska but didn’t do the little things well enough to show it on the scoreboard (which you could probably say is the Ryan Day story, generally).
Lowest postgame win expectancy in a win, Week 9:
Kennesaw > Liberty 31.8%
Utah St > Wyoming 33.4%
Ark St > Troy 35.4%
Ball St > NIU 36.0%
Memphis > Charlotte 36.5%
WVU > Arizona 38.1%
Boise > UNLV 38.4%
Tulsa > UTSA 38.6%
Wake > Stanford 45.4%Full list:https://t.co/NIJtQpxI6l
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 27, 2024
