Through three weeks of the season, Ohio State has somewhat established that it is fundamentally identical to last year’s team. In all the ways that matter, at any rate. Hidden in some lopsided scores against definitively poor teams, all of last year’s warts have not been expunged. Even a little. Faceoff is not good, even compared to last year. See the Utah game. The offense, aside from Air Force, has been inefficient and unable to gain separation via the dodge.

The defense, aside from the middies, has been just as good as last year as a unit, especially as Fyock has continued a slow development curve that sees him stop shots very, very well. I will never, ever understand the reasoning behind starting Henry Blake.

That’s not an insult, it’s just that anyone with eyes can see how much better Fyock is than Blake at the one thing goalies need to do, stop shots. It’s not even kind of close. I’m glad we’ve dispensed with the lie that Blake needed to be “injured” to start Fyock. It’s just nonsense. To bring this meandering paragraph back on track, Ohio State is largely the same as it was last season. The offense is too poor to reach the postseason. The defense will keep them in games, but never quite get over the hump.

Faceoffs will lose games for Ohio State moving forward. The personnel just isn’t up to snuff. And, frankly, the coaching is a bit off too in that phase. How so? In the Air Force matchup, at one point Zach Hepworth, not a freshman, took a faceoff, and won it cleanly. The ball gently rolled behind him to absolutely no one.

His wing had moved up the line into the opposing half, leaving Hepworth to run after the ball himself, only to lose it as his opponents chased him down. There was a failure there, somewhere. That sort of thing should be figured out, given the Buckeyes’
general reliance on faceoffs to fuel their success. These are the sorts of plays that make all the difference against teams like the next opponent.

As we turn to the behemoth of Virginia in the nonconference, we will all get to witness the real Ohio State be revealed when it comes to actual ability. This game got all the more intriguing with Virginia’s shock loss to Richmond, which saw the Spiders dominate most of the game against a much stronger opponent. More on that later.

Ohio State welcomes to Columbus a Cavaliers squad that is looking to regroup after its defeat to Richmond. Virginia is one of the most talented teams in the country, again, and boasts a roster littered with many of the most hyped recruits from years gone by. The positive adjectives could go on for ages, but this is a free post on a free site. A higher word count doesn’t pay me anything. The Cavs are extremely talented, very well coached, and young. It’s going to be a rough game for the Buckeyes.

Attack

Virginia’s right on the precipice of being scary good, as their best players and starters are all sophomores or younger. McCabe Millon (#9), a former #1 recruit, headlines the attack unit and is easily their highest scorer. Millon wears his dad’s number, plays on a better team, but is just as productive in an era that is far more physically demanding. Defenders are small if they’re 6'3” tall these days, while Mark Millon was crushing against guys barely reaching 6'. Millon is a class above, and the Cavaliers will go where he takes them.

Joining Millon at attack are Ryan Colsey (#13) and Truitt Sunderland (#3). Sunderland is another super sophomore, and actually leads the Cavaliers in scoring with 7 goals, 4 assists, and 11 points. Millon has 6 assists to lead the team, but only 3 goals for the season. So far. Any way you slice it, however, the attack is a problem. Just a big, big problem. Ohio State is going to have its hands full on defense for 60 full

Midfield

Virginia just has a wave of talent at midfield that the Buckeyes have never had. Even when they stupidly put Tre Leclaire up there. The Cavaliers have 4-stars and 5-stars in midfield like a rabbit has fleas. They’re constantly reloading, and have enough weapons to punish teams that focus too closely on the elite attackmen. Ohio State is going to get absolutely overwhelmed here. I hate saying it. But I have yet to see anything that will change my opinion on this.

The Buckeye long poles are going to have to stick to the attackmen like glue, unless they want to get utterly demolished on passes down low as the second slide is 4 to 5 seconds too late. Jack Walshe (#27) currently leads the middie scorers with 4 goals, as most production has come from the attackmen in half-field sets. Tied with Walshe is Griffin Schutz (#26), who also has contributed 4 tallies in 2 games. When you look at leading scorers, there’s a surprise name that we’ll cover in the next group.

After these two, there are a bunch of unproven, high potential players looking to etch their names into Virginia lacrosse lore. This is a hungry group, talented, and could push the Buckeyes over the edge early if Ohio State is not up to snuff.

Defense

In a fun surprise, Ben Wayer (#44), who used to be an Ohio State commit way back when, is fourth on the team in points with 5, 4 goals and an assist. That illustrates just how eager the Cavaliers are to attack after a turnover. Ohio State overwhelmed Air Force last week by dominating chaos, Virginia could very well do the same thing to the Buckeyes if Ohio State gets caught flat-footed.

The Cavaliers are big, talented, and hardened against maybe the best attack line in the country. The Spiders of Richmond managed to get the win, but a single down performance is not going to derail Virginia’s season. The Buckeyes are going to struggle to score, because I don’t think they have an attackman who can get by any of Virginia’s defenders.

Faceoff

Virginia has Anthony Ghobriel (#32) as their starting FOGO, sporting a good 57.8% win rate on draws. Andrew Greenspan (#14) has been even better, winning 11 of 15 for 73.3%. Either way, the Buckeyes are in serious trouble.

Jack Oldman has been good lately for Ohio State, but I think we’re going to be made well aware that it is an illusion. His horrible outing against Utah looks worse the more the Utes struggle with teams that should theoretically be worse than the Buckeyes. Oldman needs to have the game of his life in order for Ohio State to have a prayer.

Goalie

Suiting up between the pipes is likely to be Kyle Morris (#38), who has stolen the starting gig by posting 21 saves in less than 3 halves of playing time. Morris is saving 55% of his shots this season, making this an interesting matchup with Caleb Fyock.

I think Fyock may be slightly better, but I also know that Virginia’s defense is going to give Morris a lot more help. We’ll see how things play out, but I'd bet the farm on Fyock having more saves than Morris, but allowing more goals.

Overall

We’re at a time where the hammer is about to fall on Ohio State’s season. We’ll see in due course whether the Buckeyes are made of steel or glass, but I’m gloomy on the outlook. Ohio State’s blowout loss to Utah looks even worse with the Utes losing consecutive games to Denver and Vermont. That Vermont loss is just nightmare fuel. Ohio State needs to beat 2 of the UVAND-Denver trio to make the national tournament. It HAS to.

I don’t know that anything outside of a Denver win is even conceivable, let alone likely. And that Denver game is going to be dicey. Bluntly, tomorrow is going to be a long game, barring a Cavalier catastrophe. That’s unfortunate.

But likely. I don’t have sunshine to pump, or smoke to blow. I’m not expecting much out of the game tomorrow. And neither is the Big Ten, since it has been relegated to B1G+ again. We’ll find out what the Buckeyes and Cavaliers are made of tomorrow. Grit your teeth and hold on.

Final prediction: UVA 17, OSU 9.

Virginia Ohioan Count: 0

Ohio Vibes Rating: Which one is Ohio?

Go Bucks!

Game is at noon EST, B1G+. Save yourselves. Don’t watch.