Outstanding breakdown by College Football Nerds on this weekend's match-up between the Buckeyes and the "Giant Killers" from West Lafayette.
CFB Nerds bring up a couple excellent points regarding Purdue:
- Purdue scheduled two P5 OOC opponents (Oregon State and ND) and went 1-1 against those teams. If they had scheduled a G5 team (and won) instead of ND, the Boilermakers would be 7-2 and are likely ranked a mid-Top 25 team this week (see Baylor and Miss State).
- Purdue is better than their ranking, and an OSU win over the Boilermakers should mean more than someone beating a ranked UTSA, Louisiana or Coastal Carolina, maybe even 10-12 of the Top 25.
- Purdue's defense struggles against modernized, RPO offenses; DBs aren't great in man coverage
- Purdue's pass defense allows 97% of opponents' average (about average)
- Purdue's run defense allows 94% of opponents' average (about average)
Interesting side note: CFB Nerds predicted Purdue's upset over Sparty.
Week 10 Confidence Points Pick Em!
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— We Hate Your Team (@WeHateYourTeam_) November 5, 2021
Regarding Ohio State;
- The "improvement" in OSU's defense is impossible to quantify due to the competition played (Akron, IU, Rutgers)
- Tremendous offense that puts up big yards, but inefficient at turning yards into points
- OSU's offense is favorably matched vs Purdue's defense
- OSU's pass defense allows 94% of opponents' average (about average)
- OSU's run defense allows 76% of opponents' average (excellent)
Predictions:
- Model: OSU 40 Purdue 19
- Josh: OSU 41 Purdue 17
- Daniel OSU 37 Purdue 24 (verbal - he changed what he had on the charts)
- Vegas (which came out after CFB Nerds ran their model): OSU -19.5
TL/DR: CFB Nerds likes OSU, thinks Purdue is a Top 25 team that played a tough schedule, and the Good Guys win handily in the second half.
