I have seen a lot of posts over the past two days reigniting the "Day sucks!" "He's soft!" "He'll never get it done!" crowd. So I decided to take an objective look at Day's performance over his biggest games. Disclaimer: Michigan spent the last three years engaged in an elaborate sign-stealing scandal, that invalidates everything they have accomplished over the past three seasons. You cannot spend a year yelling about how big of an advantage sign-stealing is, and then harp on Day about losing those games. However, an argument can be made (Though I disagree with it) that the cheating stopped (it didn't) when Stallions was let go. Therefore, for the sake of this exercise, the Michigan games in both 2021 and 2022, will not be considered. 

Over his career as Ohio State's Head coach, Day has a record of 17-7 against top 25 teams, or a winning percentage of 70.8%. He has a record of 8-6 against top 10 teams - for a 57.1% success rate, and a record of 2-5 against top 5 teams for a 28.6% success rate.

Further, this means he is 6-1 (85.7%) against top teams in the 6-10 ranking, and 9-1 against teams ranked 11-25 (90%). In addition, Day is undefeated against all teams outside of the top-25.

These records show several things.

First, Ryan Day never has a let-down game. Teams that Ohio State is expected to roll, have a 0-44 record against Day. He does not have a Bama v Vandy game on his resume, which, for as much as we love Urban Meyer, was something he was notorious for. No one can say his teams don’t always show up to play.

Second, Ryan Day is borderline elite against ALL non-elite teams. He is 15-2 (88.2%) against teams ranked 6-25. Now, the caveat here is that rankings are subjective, and it could be said that several of these wins were against overrated teams. And from an Ohio State perspective, we as fans tend to deem most teams ranked outside of the top 5 to be overrated. But the fact remains that teams in this range are at least competent, and have a punchers chance at an upset against most opponents. Day’s two losses in this category came from #12 Oregon in 2021 by a score of 28-35 in what was better known as the Kerry Combs experience. And last year’s Cotton Bowl loss to Mizzou in the disaster where we played a #3 QB who was not names Cardale Jones.

Finally, these results lead to the one conclusion that Ryan day is simply not elite against the best of the best in college football. However, games against top-5 competition should be, at best, viewed as coinflip scenarios, and any record approaching 50% should be viewed as excellent. These are also scenarios where the uncontrollable aspects of college football become more magnified. Injuries and officiating play a much bigger role in the outcomes of game that are evenly matched. So we must look at Day’s record in a case-by-case manner in order to further see how he has performed.

Game 1 – 2019 – OSU v Clemson (L, 23-29): This game remains the poster child for officials determining the outcome of a game. There were half a dozen defining moments in this game – nearly all of them involving officiating – and ALL of them went in favor of Clemson. From Dobbins’ overturned touchdown, to Wade’s targeting, to Fuller’s overturned scoop-and-score, Ohio State was jobbed, plain and simple. I refuse to hold this game against Day.

Game 2 – 2020 – OSU v Clemson (W, 49-28): This game remains Day’s shining moment. His plan was flawless and perfectly executed, and he shoved Dabo in a trash can, from where he has scarcely emerged since. Chef’s kiss.

Game 3 – 2020 – OSU v Bama (L, 52-24): While most games between top 5 teams are coinflips, this was not one of them. The line was Bama -9 going in, and they were -200 to win. With that being said, Ohio State was outclassed in this game and, for as beautiful as the Clemson game was to watch, this one was every bit as ugly. Day was to blame for that, no way to get around it.

Game 4 – 2022 – OSU v ND (W, 21-10): This was a gritty come-from-behind win, but ND went on to lose 4 games this year, and it’s hard to consider this as a real elite win for Day’s resume.

Game 5 – 2022 – OSU v Georgia (L, 41-42): This game is tough. This Georgia team is typically viewed as one of the best teams in modern college football. Day’s offensive plan was amazing, and I tend to view this game as one of his best coaching jobs, despite the loss. He was down Stover, JSN, Miyan Williams, Trey Henderson, and, by the forth quarter, Harrison. He also suffered from a major officiating blunder (Harrison ejection), and a DC who hadn’t yet figured out how to limit big plays. This was the toughest L of Day’s career and it was quite possibly his best coaching performance.

Game 6 – 2023 – OSU v Mich (L, 24-30): Depending on your opinion of whether Michigan had stopped cheating at this point, this is either a game that doesn’t count, or Day’s biggest missed opportunity. Officiating wasn’t particularly bad, and Ohio State had plenty of opportunities to take control of the game and simply didn’t do it.

Game 7 – 2024 – OSU v Oregon (L, 31-32): You know how this went. It’s still fresh. There were things that, had they gone our way, we would have won the game, but the saying “make your own luck” is real, and this game should have never come down to the final OPI call. This game is also on Day.

So in conclusion, Day is, IMO, one of the best coaches in college football, and the “Fire Day!” crowd can gtfo. With that being said, people have a legitimate gripe about his ability to win big games. Where I view people as being wrong is when they act as if Day is lightyears away from turning the tide in these games. In his 5* losses to top-five competition, he has one game stolen by officiating, one game potentially stolen by cheating*, a one-point loss in a game that was a top-2 coaching performance by him, a blowout that he should have been able to keep closer, and a one-point loss on the road in a game he likely should have won.

This is not to excuse his record in big matchups. It is what it is, and it needs to improve. But perspective matters, and on his current 4-game losing streak, all were one-score games, and two were one-point games. One ball bounce in one of those four games would give him a 3-4 record (near 50%), or, depending on your view of 2023 Michigan, 3-3 and at 50% (the mark of respectability in big games).

Day is good coach. He is not lightyears away as some would have you think. And he has, up to this point, be a bit unlucky. He will get over the hump at some point – potentially this year, as he will have multiple opportunities to do so - and when he does, I will be happily along for the ride.