I have watched (and bet on a lot of team overs in ) each team’s games this season. I think the teams are a lot more similar than most would expect. I bet heavily on OSU this year like I bet on Michigan the year prior. At some point it changed from “this is OSU’s year” to “ND could be the other team.”

I pretty early on told my Ohio State friends that the Buckeye defense was solidly in the top 5, and they disagreed, stating “maybe top 25…” 

I will give my analysis here for thoughts, but wanted to point one thing out to start. A lot have mentioned that our pass defense statistics are inflated due to opponents. I would like to add some context that our pass defense statistics are what they are DESPITE giving up 5 touchdowns in the last 30 seconds of three + score games at the time, and a sixth with under two minutes of what had been a 27-3 game with Indiana. Golden said after that game that he shut it down and did not want to show anything more in those last two drives. The trend shows that was probably his strategy in most games where we had 21 to 42 point leads late… which was pretty much all of them. Louisville was our only win by single digits in the regular season and the Penn State game was only Freemans second win of less than 7 points in his career. 
 

Anyways, on to the analysis:

Quarteback: Ohio State edge. Riley Leonard is tough and can hurt you on the ground. We have not had an nfl caliber quarterback passing since Kiser though. Leonard may be Ian Book with more downfield accuracy and less ability to throw off platform. Howard can be lights out when his confidence is rolling. He shook off the Penn State pick and I expected him to do the same against Michigan. He tended to find his stride in the second half of a lot of games in the regular season. 
 

Running backs— slight edge to ND IF love is near healthy. Price and Love were #’s 1,2 or 3 in several per carry statistics throughout the regular season. I think they’re very similar in that you’ve got 2/3 best running back tandems in the country in this game (Allen/Singleton being the other). 
 

Wide receivers— OSU by the widest margin in this recap. All three OSU receivers are much better players than anyone ND has had since… Claypool? That being said, Faison has finally been healthy and can help take some of the heat off the run game. No one really scares you on our crew, but they can move the chains. Beaux Collins, the Clemson receiver, has been hit or miss. None of them drop passes, but they struggle to get separation. 
 

Tight end: ND based on the depth. Mitchell Evans is finally healthy (had about 75 yards last years game) and Raridon as well is a stud finally healthy. Scott may find a good number of openings this game thought, I fear. 
 

OL— both are banged to shit. When healthy I would favor OSU’s OL. Anyone’s guess at this point, although a lot of our backups were prior starters, so that has been helpful. 
 

DL— Ohio State. Mills was a stud (2nd team AA) at DT and Cross is a game wrecker when healthy at DT (AA in 2023 that has been playing on a gimpy ankle).  Rubio has been a great run stopper as a replacement for mills but is Mia in pass rush. Our top two DE’s went down in September. We have been mixing a lot of talented, but younger, backups in there. Obviously not Sawyer and JTT good. Very impressive the amount of 5* seniors Ohio State has kept from that monster class for this core run (egbuka, Henderson, sawyer, JTT, etc.)

Linebackers— Notre Dame on depth. Both have back sevens that play with reckless abandon and hit like someone stole their bikes. ND rotates 6th year Jack Kiser, 5* drayk Bowen (heavy hitter but can be beaten in pass coverage), 5* Jaylen Sneed (think a poor man’s Jaylon Smith— very good pass rusher and has speed), Kyngston Viliamu Asa (highly rated freshman who is healthy finally) and gets a lot of pressure, and Jaiden Ausberry (well rounded, fast, intelligent, and physical). 
 

DB— toss up. Similar to RB, I think this is a game where you have 2 of maybe the best 3 safety units in the game. Xavier Watts is about as good as Caleb Downs in the college game (downs will be a better pro prospect— watts won the bednarik award in 2023). Adon Shuler has come on like Ransom and played very well. There have been several games where Shuler has shined more than watts. freshmen  Leonard Moore replaced Benjamin Morrison (injured first team AA) and there has not been a drop off at all. Most times Moore has been targeted it has been a near pick. Christian Gray on the other side has been up and down. He is a ball hawk but sometimes can get beat. USC targeted him specifically a ton. The Georgia sideline penalty was on a long pass where gray was beaten. Both corners are long, physical and not afraid though. If I could take cam hart back instead of Christian gray here though I’d feel more comfortable, albeit I’d prefer to have Rylie Mills back for pass rusher (7.5 sacks from DT before injury) 

Overall given our injuries an 8 point spread feels appropriate. If we were totally healthy and OSU was still what they were a 4.5 point spread is probably more accurate. I could easily see this game getting out of hand if Ohio State comes out firing. Honestly, there have been running lanes in the first quarter of each of our playoff games. I think Ohio State would be wise to take advantage of those more than Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State did. Penn State probably could have won that game by keeping the ball on the ground. Conversely, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this game end up looking like the last two did and coming down to the fourth quarter. 
 

good luck and hopefully no more injuries in the coming days or Monday night for either side