We're clear favorite, and while ND fans are talking a lot about the 2002 OSU upset over Miami, it got me thinking how favorites typically fare in these games. So here's what I've been able to find (with the caveat that none of this really matters, but it's interesting perspective nonetheless):
- 2023: Michigan (-5) covers easily. Frankly, I didn't think the spread was nearly enough. Michigan was a clear favorite.
- 2022: Georgia (-13) covers easily over TCU.
- 2021: Georgia (-3) covers by beating Bama (thanks in part to Jameson Williams' injury)
- 2020: Bama (-7.5) covers easily over OSU.
- 2019: LSU (-5.5) covers over Clemson
- 2018: Clemson (+5.5) upsets Bama -- I was a bit surprised at the time this spread was so high for Bama. That Clemson team was loaded.
- 2017: Bama (-3.5) covered against Georgia
- 2016: Clemson (+6) upsets Bama
- 2015: Bama (-6.5) wins but doesn't cover against Clemson
- 2014: OSU (+5) upsets Oregon, although I thought that was a ridiculous spread at the time and had no doubt OSU would win.
- 2013: FSU (-8.5) beats Auburn but doesn't cover
- 2012: Bama (-10) covers easily over Notre Dame
- 2011: Bama (-1.5) covers easily for payback over LSU
- 2010: Auburn (-2) covers over Oregon
- 2009: Bama (-4) covers against Texas
- 2008: Florida (-5.5) covers against Oklahoma
- 2007: LSU (-5.5) covers against Ohio State
- 2006: Florida (+7) springs a convincing upset over Ohio State
- 2005: Texas (+7) springs the upset over USC, although I was shocked the spread was that high. I thought this was close to a pick 'em
- 2004: USC (-3) covers easily over Oklahoma
- 2003: LSU (+6.5) springs the upset over Oklahoma, but it wasn't a true title game since USC also shared it
- 2002: Ohio State (+11.5) beats Miami
- 2001: Miami (-8.5) covers easily against Nebraska
- 2000: Oklahoma (+11.5) springs the big upset over FSU
So what does this tell us? The favorites covered 14 of 24 times, won but didn't cover 2 of 24 times, and the underdog won 8 of the 24 times. However, only 2002 Ohio State and 2000 Oklahoma were "major" underdogs. And both of those major underdogs came in playing defending national champs.
Also, some of those "upsets" were a bit misleading: 2014 OSU over Oregon, 2018 Clemson over Bama, 2005 Texas over USC. One could argue that the better team won those games.
