When we first sealed a matchup against ND, I thought the chance of an OSU blowout was about 50%, the chance of an OSU close win was 30%, and the chance of ND win was about 20%. Since that time I've come around on ND being a brutal team to play against.

So, first is five reasons I think tonight is going to be close.

1. ND Has Held Ohio State to 19 PPG in the Last Two Meetings. Al Golden and Notre Dame came to Columbus in 2022 and held the best Ohio State offense in recent memory to 21 points. That was 23 points below our average that year and was tied for the lowest output of the season with that monsoon game at Northwestern. The Irish repeated this feat in 2023 by holding us to 17, which was our lowest output of the regular season. At some point we have to acknowledge neither of these games were flukes, that ND took away Marvin Harrison Jr. for two straight years, and that they will be confident in this game. Al Golden is a great DC and I'd expect him to have another great plan in his third game against OSU.

2. OSU Has Averaged 24 PPG Against Top 20 Defenses. I like the College Football Nerds Scoring Defense vs. Expected stat here, as it computes what Team A held Team B relative to Team B's scoring average. The top 20 defenses OSU has played are Nebraska, Penn State, Indiana, Michigan, Tennessee, and Texas. The Buckeyes only averaged 24 offensive PPG against these teams, and I would argue ND's defense is better than all of them. ND will do what these teams did -- keep everything in front, limit OSU's passive explosive plays, and make Ohio State patiently earn every inch.

3. ND's Defense/Special Teams. Tressel's teams taught us that great defense and special teams can sometimes be a feature, not a bug. At some point you have to tip your cap to ND. They average forcing 2.1 turnovers a game which is insane (Ohio State's elite defense forces 1.3 per game by comparison). They are always making the play they need to make. They are good for about one explosive play on special teams every game. I will not be surprised if Ohio State plays a base defense against all of ND's offensive special teams units this game.

4. Running QB. If this game is close it is going to be because Riley Leonard is making the plays he needs to make. He has 866 rushing yards this season and is average 5.2 yards per clip. He will remind you of JT Barrett on third and short and Jared Allen when he is scrambling. He is a load to bring down. Against Penn State I believe Notre Dame was 7 for 7 on third downs when it was third and 3 or less, and PSU is no slouch in short yardage.

5. ND Has Yet to Give Up 1Q Points in the Playoff. A lot of Ohio State fans will be yearning for another fast start. However, ND not only does not give up fast starts, but they have not allowed any points in the first quarter during the CFP. In fact, they are giving up 4.3 points per game in the first half. They have come out with great defensive game plans that have taken other teams a long time to sort out.

This in turn leads me to reasons to feel confident.

1. ND Has Averaged 12 PPG Against OSU. It's unfair to point to the 2022 and 2023 games as an indictment on Ohio State's offense without giving credit to Ohio State's defense. ND has only scored a combined total of 24 points in those two years. I think this is the best Ohio State defense of all of them and the ND offense does not strike me as being markedly different than either of its past iterations. Leonard is certainly more mobile but he is not the caliber of QB to consistently get ND out of third and longs.

2. Ohio State's D Dominates First Down. On that point, the Irish live and die by playing ahead of the chains. They will remind you of Harbaugh's late Michigan teams -- they will run, run, run until you stop it -- although they do it a different way with more QB run. If they are consistently in second and medium and third and short, it's going to be a long day for Ohio State. But, the Buckeyes D is #1 in the country in early downs EPA (i.e., dominating first down). Penn State (who is 16th in this stat) dominated ND in the first half by consistently causing negative plays on first down for ND, and the Irish do not have the skill players to dig out of this hole. Ohio State needs to do the same for four quarters.

3. ND's Rush Defense is Vulnerable. ND's pass defense is awesome, but their rushing defense is surprisingly 60th in rushing success rate (in layman's terms this means they are allowing the opposing offense to get four yards on first down, half the distance on second down, and convert third down on rushing attempts). The only way to stop this Ohio State offense is to consistently be able to defend the run with six guys in the box. Notre Dame is suffering from some pretty devastating injuries on their defensive front seven, most notably Ryan Mills. Penn State's RBs had almost 5  YPC against ND, but ND was able to shut this down in the second half by bringing an extra man in the box. Penn State could not capitalize due to their lack of WR talent. If Ohio State can lean on ND in the first half it could make for a great second half performance.

4. ND Will Have an Injured OL. Notre Dame is starting a new LT, although he was supposedly the preseason starter. That said the guy has no reps at LT this year. Their RG has an injured ankle, so I am expecting Williams to whip him early. Their RT was a turnstyle against Abdul Carter. All in all I think Ohio State's defensive line will be in a position to absolutely dominate this game if they all show up.

5.  Ohio State Has More Talent. Ya ya, this one's easy. But Ohio State has 14 five star players, while ND has one. Sometimes this stat is misleading because the five star guys are freshman, but Ohio State's five stars are not only contributors -- they are the stars of this team: Sawyer, JTT, Downs, Styles, Henderson, Jackson, Egbuka, Smith, etc. This type of depth is what ultimately has propelled Ohio State over ND the last two years late in the game. Defensively, maybe they will slow down Smith, but Egbuka and Carnell Tate will get theirs. Offensively, maybe they can pick on Styles in pass situations, but for how long until Ohio State's safeties smother it?

So what's my pick? I'm going with 24-13 Ohio State.