If 2024 is any kind of precedent, need to win 10 games to make the CFP. All the 9-3 teams that didn’t win their conference missed the Playoffs last yr. In various order - most forecasters predict: Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, as the 3 betting favorites next yr & we host the 2 that aren’t us. Yikes!

Throw in road trips to Seattle WA,  Champaign IL, Madison WI, W.Lafayette IN & Ann Arbor MI. Along with typical feisty Big10 foes hoping to upset us in the Shoe - this Buckeye team needs to be on point all year just to make the CFP!
This schedule isn’t setup for the defending champs to just cruise-control their way back to the Playoffs! 
Ohio State’s 2025 schedule is shown below, along with my moronic chance of victory pct. Please adjust Win/Loss probability on the following games as you see fit:

Texas (home): 52%

Grambling (home): 99%

Ohio (home): 99%

Washington (away): 83%

Minnesota (home): 91%

Illiniois (away): 79%

Wisconsin (away): 87%

Penn St (home): 69%

Purdue (away): 96%

UCLA (home): 97%

Rutgers (home): 96%

Michigan (away): 69%