I write this mere hours after a notable trade has just transpired in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers traded 3rd string quarterback Trey Lance to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for a 2024 4th round draft pick. This shouldn't be anything significant. A reserve QB being swapped for day two draft capital is nothing that is abnormal. But seeing this headline got me thinking, pondering an event that occurred less than two and a half years ago that could've reshaped the landscape of professional football and the perception of the most vital position in sports for our beloved college football program.
Wow, the 49ers completely whiffed on a potential dynasty. They took Trey Lance over Justin Fields.
In the spring of 2021, the San Francisco 49ers, one of the most storied franchises in the NFL who were renown for their legendary quarterbacks in Joe Montana and Steve Young, sent shock waves throughout the league by swapping their first-round selection in that April's draft, along with trading two future first-rounders, to move up 9 spots to the 3rd selection. A move this bold, this seismic was unmistakably for a new quarterback. To some, it was a peculiar decision. Just two years prior, the 49ers were in the Super Bowl facing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Jimmy Garoppolo was a solid game-manager at quarterback. To others, it was a necessary statement. The 49ers wound up blowing a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter to Kansas City, largely due to Jimmy G's ineffectiveness in the most important quarter of his football career. A change needed to happen to put the 49ers over the top.
That year's draft had a clear #1 pick, the consensus best QB on the board, Clemson's Trevor Lawrence. After that, it was pure subjectivity. Some favored BYU's Zach Wilson and his rocket arm, others fancied North Dakota State's Trey Lance for both his play-making prowess and carefulness with the ball, as he threw 0 interceptions during his lone full season as the Bison's starting QB in 2019. Some even propped up Alabama's Mac Jones, for some reason. Then, there was Justin Fields.
I need not provide much of a synopsis to you about Fields's accomplishments while in Columbus. Many Big Ten foes watched with envious eyes at his agile scrambling expertise combined with a golden right arm that bedazzled spectators with his precision and deep ball adroitness. Even setting my scarlet and gray-tinted glasses aside, I thought it was apparent to anyone with a football IQ above single digits that Fields was the obvious second-best quarterback in this draft.
That was not the case.
Lawrence, unsurprisingly, was taken first by Jacksonville. While he had a tumultuous rookie season under Urban Meyer, T-Law proved last year that he has the makings of a potential superstar, leading the once dormant Jaguars to an AFC South title and a 27-point playoff comeback against the San Diego LA Chargers.
Zach Wilson went second to the New York Jets. Many among us rejoiced over this revelation, as the Jets' notorious history of below average signal callers spelled doom for a potential Fields success story in the Big Apple. Truth be told, with the power of hindsight, perhaps this would've been a fruitful affair, as Fields could have reunited with Garrett Wilson and had been saddled with a top-ten defense and reliable running game. However, this is not where the true "what if" lies.
With their acquired third pick, San Francisco was now on the clock. Those of us who follow the NFL knew the 49ers were the ideal landing spot for any of the likely suitors for Fields. Their 2020 season was rocked by key injuries, most notably to star pass rusher Nick Bosa. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is arguably the best offensive mind in the sport, a coach who tailors his offenses to his quarterback's skill set, who always produces top notch running games with afterthoughts toting the rock. The idea of Fields getting to learn from such brilliance, while being allowed to throw to players such as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, and having football's best left tackle in Trent Williams securing his blindside, made us salivate.
If only fantasy became reality.
With the third pick, the 49ers selected Trey Lance.
Fields would last until the 11th pick, when the Chicago Bears traded up to select him. The franchise hoped to purge their folly from four years earlier, when they bypassed Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson for Mitch Trubisky. Landing in the Second City made many of us fret for Fields. Chicago remains the only team in NFL history to never have a 4,000 yard passer in a season. They are amongst the worst run franchises in the league, and their head coach at the time was Matt Nagy, an offensive-minded coach notorious for trying to fit square blocks into round pegs, the polar opposite of Kyle Shanahan.
After only two years, it's clear that those doomsdayers were correct in their foresight. Chicago was the worst destination for Fields. They lack an offensive identity, playmakers, blocking, and competent coaching. Alas, Fields's talent is too great not to show glimpses threw the sewage. In 2022, he became just the third quarterback in league history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. But one must wonder how he would be perceived had he landed in the Bay.
The 49ers' decision begets one of the zaniest results I've ever seen in pro sports. Lance has been unable to stay on the field. In his three years in San Fran, he registered only 4 career starts, throwing 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, and a completion percentage under 55%. The draft capital they surrendered to Miami netted the Dolphins Jaylen Waddle in the 2021 draft, while the other two first rounders they acquired were traded in exchange for Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb. Relinquishing their coveted top-three selection brought Miami three of the best players on their roster. It sounds similar to the infamous Herschel Walker trade in 1989, when the Minnesota Vikings traded years worth of draft capital in exchange for the Cowboys' best player at that time, which allowed Dallas to craft a dynasty.
Yet, the 49ers have flourished in that span, making consecutive NFC Championship appearances with two different quarterbacks (the aforementioned Garoppolo in '21 and newcomer Brock Purdy in '22). I don't recall ever seeing a team whiff so badly on a quarterback, give up so much to get him, yet not falter from their mistake.
This begs the question, what if the Niners chose Fields?
Obviously this is all skepticism, but I believe San Fran would have at least made one Super Bowl, likely Super Bowl 56 in 2021 when they narrowly lost 20-17 to the LA Rams in the NFC Title game, setting them up for a third meeting on the grand stage with the Cincinnati Bengals. Would they have a Lombardi? As a Bengals fan, I'd like to think not, but the truth is we'll never know. Seriously though, could you imagine a Burrow vs. Fields Super Bowl?
My reasoning is that the 49ers have made two NFC Championships and one Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. While Jimmy G is mostly dependable, no defensive coordinator is adding to their insomnia from any physical trait of his. Brock Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 Draft, took them to the NFC Title game last season before suffering an injury to his throwing arm early in the contest against the Eagles. Truth be told, I doubt San Fran would've won anyhow. The Eagles were simply better.
It'll forever remain puzzling to me why the 49ers selected Lance over Fields. Even looking at it objectively, Fields was faster, more dynamic, and had a better arm, while also demonstrating his willingness to play through injury, and faced much tougher competition. Contrary to popular belief, the 49ers historically suck at drafting quarterbacks. Joe Montana is the obvious exception, but Steve Young was acquired via trade. They selected Giovanni Carmazzi over Tom Brady (yikes) and Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers (Smith was a damn fine QB, but c'mon, no one is taking him over Rodgers). Both Brady and Rodgers grew up near the Bay area and idolized the team, hoping to be the next Montana.
In essence, I truly believe Fields would've been the guy to put them over the top and at least make another Super Bowl, possibly winning one. If Brock Purdy can step into that offense and thrive immediately, I know for damn sure Fields could've too.
Oh, what could've been.
