It may seem hard to believe, but Ohio State's Big Ten season is getting ready to reach the halfway point. The Buckeyes travel to Illinois for a 9 p.m. showdown with Illinois on Thursday for their ninth league game of the season.
Up-and-down may the only way to describe Ohio State's season to this point. The Buckeyes have had a few highs on the year, but have also been to the lowest of lows with a couple of lopsided losses.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois (10-10, 2-5) | State Farm Center (Champaign, Ill.) | 9 p.m. | BTN |
Still, a victory over the Illini would move Ohio State to 6-3 at the halfway point of the conference season and that's something which would please head coach Thad Matta.
"As crazy as it sounds I’m still learning this team because in a lot of ways with this team every day is Day 1," Matta said Wednesday. "I’ve told them that there’s not a lot of things that I take for granted with this team. With that said, the button pushing, the motivational tactics, that sort of thing, is something that we have to continue with.
"The hard part for these guys to understand is they don’t understand the big picture in terms of how much basketball is still to be played, how much better we can still get. Just watching from the second Big Ten game against Illinois to now, we’re a better team. But usually everybody else is, too.”
Illinois and Ohio State already met once this season — a 75-73 win for the Buckeyes in Columbus on Jan. 3. Both teams are different now and it should make for a competitive game come Thursday night.
Opponent Breakdown
The Illini lost five of their first six games in the Big Ten before downing Minnesota their last time out, 76-71 in overtime. Illinois' other conference win came Jan. 10 when it upset Purdue in a rather dominating 14-point victory.
When talking about the Illini, things obviously start with the Big Ten's highest-scoring duo: Malcolm Hill and Kendrick Nunn. Hill is averaging 18.7 points per game — second-best in the Big Ten — while Nunn is scoring 17.5 per game, which would rank fifth had he played the minimum number of required games. Nunn missed part of the season due to injury and has only played in 14 games this year.
Ohio State, however, was able to contain both Hill and Nunn in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Each was held below their average as both scored 14 points; Nunn was just 5-of-15 shooting while Hill was only 4-for-13 from the floor.
They're still a scary combo, though, and can get hot on any given night to carry the Illini.
"It’s one of those teams that when they get hot watch out," Matta said of the Illini. "I think that they probably play the fastest in terms of shot clock and trying to get shots so doing the best we can to get back in transition is going to be key and having a better feel for the changing defenses then we did in game one which I think we will.”
Illinois is averaging 70.1 points per game in Big Ten play, while allowing 79.1 — second-worst in the conference behind only Rutgers. The Illini rank 119th in KenPom's advanced statistical ratings.
Buckeye Breakdown
Matta shook up Ohio State's starting lineup in its last game against Penn State starting A.J. Harris and Daniel Giddens in place of JaQuan Lyle and Trevor Thompson. The Buckeyes defeated the Nittany Lions comfortably, 66-46, but it was far from a perfect performance.
In that effort, Harris played 20 minutes and scored four points with four assists while Lyle scored six points in 18 minutes. Giddens played 28 minutes and had five points and nine rebounds while Thompson went scoreless with four boards in just 11 minutes. Keita Bates-Diop led the way with 22 points.
There was no commitment the same group would start for Ohio State on Thursday against the Illini, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where Matta elects to change things up after a 20-point win.
“We’re going to go in and practice for two hours and we’re going to compete and quite honestly A.J. and Daniel were noticeably different going in to the Penn State game just in terms of what they brought to practice," Matta said. "I think they have a pretty good understanding of we’re going in [to practice Wednesday] and this is very important in terms of what they do.”
For the Buckeyes, it's important both Lyle and Thompson stay engaged if their new roles coming off the bench become permanent ones.
“I had to get on them a little bit [Tuesday]," Matta said. "They didn’t have the fight that I wanted them to have at the start of practice. To their credit both of them turned it around and really, really got it going.”
How It Plays Out
Ohio State is still clearly on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA tournament and a loss to Illinois would all but finish the Buckeyes' already-slim chances. The majority of Ohio State's remaining road games would be classified as winnable and the Buckeyes can't afford to lose any of those toss-ups; they also must pull an upset or two at home to at least creep back into tournament conversation.
The Illini opened up as a slight, half-point favorite Thursday night, but the line has since moved in favor of Ohio State, which is now favored by one. This certainly feels like it has the makings of a close game and that's what I'd expect to see. I have the Buckeyes squeaking out a win in a game they simply can't afford to lose.
Tim's prediction: Ohio State 71, Illinois 69
