Basketball Preview: Michigan at Ohio State

The Ohio State-Michigan rivalry may not carry the same weight on the basketball court as it does the football field, but do not tell that to Buckeyes sophomore forward Jae'Sean Tate.

“It’s still Michigan," Tate said Monday on the eve of Tuesday's matchup between the two teams. "People might think it’s a rivalry just between football, but it’s still Michigan. We still have that little irk there."

Ohio State hosts Michigan 7 p.m. Tuesday night at Value City Arena in a game vitally important to both teams. The Buckeyes desperately need a victory — Ohio State is 8-0 against teams below it in the Big Ten standings and 0-5 against teams above it — to boost their resume, while the Wolverines hope to solidify themselves as an NCAA tournament team.

There is more going on than just the game, too. Evan Turner, the 2010 National Player of the Year, will have his No. 21 jersey raised to the rafters at halftime of the game, becoming just the fifth Ohio State player to do so.

“It’s really hard to get your number up there," Buckeyes head coach Thad Matta said. "For us to have our first guy going up there that played under our staff I’m excited for it.”

Opponent Breakdown

It's no secret what you're getting in a matchup with Michigan: The Wolverines are going to let it fly from 3-point range.

"The alarming thing is how many 3s they shoot," Matta said. "I think close to 48 percent of their field goal attempts in Big Ten are 3s."

Matta wasn't too far off; 45.7 percent of Michigan's shots have come from behind the 3-point line in Big Ten play. The Wolverines are going to shoot it and shoot it often.

Michigan is a pretty good 3-point shooting team, too, with four players shooting 39 percent or higher from deep in Big Ten play. That doesn't even include Duncan Robinson — the team's best 3-point shooter at 47.8 percent for the season — who is only shooting 36.6 percent from downtown in conference games.

On the defensive end, Michigan will mix up defenses between man-to-man and a 1-3-1 zone that has been a staple in coach John Beilein's arsenal, though that end of the floor has been a bit of a struggle at times this season for the Wolverines.

“They’re a rhythm team so if we let them get going early it’s going to be a long night," Ohio State redshirt sophomore guard Kam Williams said. "And also we've got to continue to play on the defensive end because we know that some actions they just keep going and going."

After suffering a pair of blowout losses at home two weeks ago to Indiana and Michigan State, Michigan responded by beating Minnesota and Purdue last week. The 61-56 upset win over the Boilermakers was key for the Wolverines' NCAA tournament resume.

Michigan sits at No. 48 in KenPom's advanced statistical ratings, possessing the country's 15th-rated offense but only the 145th-ranked defense. The Wolverines are averaging 73.3 points per game in Big Ten play — sixth in the conference — while allowing 71.2 points, which ranks 10th in the league.

Robinson, Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton have led the way for Michigan offensively thus far. Irvin leads the team averaging 13.8 points per game in conference play, while Walton is averaging 13.3 points and Robinson 11.2 in the Big Ten. 

The Wolverines did welcome back senior star Caris LeVert, however, in Saturday's victory over Purdue. LeVert missed 11 games due to an unspecified lower leg injury but was averaging 17.6 points per game prior to being injured. He is expected to play Tuesday against the Buckeyes.

Buckeye Breakdown

Ohio State enters Tuesday's game having won its last two games, albeit against suspect competition. The Buckeyes knocked off Northwestern one week ago before downing Rutgers on Saturday, 79-69, in a somewhat underwhelming effort.

Williams, Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate combined to score 65 of those points for Ohio State, but they did not get much help from their teammates in the win over the Scarlet Knights, who are 0-12 in Big Ten play.

“I don’t think we played to the best of our ability as a team," Tate said Monday of the win against Rutgers. "I feel like we had two great days in practice to prepare for that game and I was just a little disappointed in our team effort and I just don’t think we got better this week, well last week."

To beat Michigan, Ohio State is certainly going to need more from freshman point guard JaQuan Lyle and junior forward Marc Loving. The two starters combined for just four points on 1-of-11 shooting against Rutgers.

The Buckeyes must also clean up the turnovers. It was something that was very problematic early in the season, but had kind of subdued itself in recent weeks before resurfacing Saturday against the Scarlet Knights. Ohio State turned the ball over 19 times in that game.

"I’m more concerned that we don’t turn the ball over 19 times tomorrow night and that we can guard their actions, that sort of thing," Matta said. "As we go into practice [Monday] my mind is not quite to the game mode in terms of that. We had a good workout [Sunday] and we need to have another good one [Monday]. It’s kind of a short preparation, but I’m excited to play it and hopefully they are.”

How It Plays Out

It pretty much goes without saying Ohio State needs to beat Michigan on Tuesday night. If the Buckeyes don't, all NCAA tournament hopes pretty much hinge on the longshot chance they win the Big Ten tournament.

If Ohio State has one thing on its side, though, it's history. In this rivalry, the Buckeyes are 10-1 at home against Michigan under Matta. The lone victory in there for the Wolverines came during the 2013-14 season when Michigan won the Big Ten and made the Elite 8.

If Ohio State can't locate the Wolverine shooters, it could make for a long evening. But the Buckeyes seem to play much better at home than they do on the road — as most teams do — and they seem like they are more than due for a win over a team ahead of them in the Big Ten standings.

I've got this one as very close throughout, with Ohio State pulling out a narrow win to keep hopes alive for at least one more game.

Tim's prediction: Ohio State 71, Michigan 68