It's not where Ohio State wanted to be.
This kind of start — a 0-3 mark to begin Big Ten play —never previously happened under head coach Thad Matta. The Buckeyes are one of two teams in the conference without a league win. The other is Rutgers.
And things certainly aren't getting any easier.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin (13-3, 2-1 B1G) | Kohl Center (Madison, Wisc.) | 7 p.m. | ESPN2 |
Still searching for its first Big Ten win of the season, Ohio State travels Thursday to a place where not many visiting teams win. The Buckeyes play in Madison against 18th-ranked Wisconsin.
The Badgers sit just one-half game out of an early first-place tie in the Big Ten and are one of the favorites to win the league at the end of the season. Ohio State's challenge is enormous.
Let's break down Thursday's matchup between the Buckeyes and No. 18 Wisconsin a little further.
Opponent Breakdown
Wisconsin entered the 2016–17 season with big-time expectations as the Badgers returned the majority of their team that went to the Sweet 16 a year ago. And led by preseason Big Ten Player of the Year Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin has bounced back from a relatively slow start — the Badgers lost two of their first six games — to mount a 13-3 record ahead of Thursday's matchup with Ohio State.
But Hayes is far from the only player on this Wisconsin team. Bronson Koenig and Ethan Happ give the Badgers a three-headed monster most teams simply don't have. Koenig leads the team in scoring at 14.0 points per game. Hayes averages 13.5 points per game and Happ averages 13.4 points and a team-high 9.1 rebounds per game.
Zak Showalter (8.4 ppg.), Vitto Brown (7.3 ppg., 3.9 rpg.), D'Mitrik Trice (6.3 ppg., 52.8 3-point percentage) and Khalil Iverson (5.0 ppg.) also give the Badgers some depth at multiple positions.
"Very, very similar to what we've seen in the past few years," Matta said. "They've got inside, outside and just a solid basketball team in terms of you make a mistake and they will make you pay. ... Being as sound as we possibly can is going to be huge for us."
According to Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings, Wisconsin is the No. 11 team in the country. The Badgers rank 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency (117.3 points per 100 possessions) and 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency (92.8 points per 100 possessions).
Wisconsin had its nine-game winning streak snapped Sunday with a 66–55 loss at Purdue, but the Badgers strung together wins against Syracuse, Oklahoma, Marquette and Indiana before that loss to the Boilermakers.
This is about as well-balanced a team as there is in the Big Ten. Ohio State certainly has its hands full Thursday night on the road.
Buckeye Breakdown
Ohio State once again found itself in a tight battle at the final media timeout, but for the third-consecutive game, the Buckeyes failed to get it done down the stretch as they fell to 0–3 in the Big Ten for the first time under Matta.
Sunday's 78–68 loss at Minnesota followed a familiar pattern, too, in addition to Ohio State not closing things out down the stretch. The Buckeyes fell behind early — trailing by as many as 18 points in the first half — and the hole was simply too deep for them to overcome despite a valiant second-half effort.
"That's been the topic of discussion in practice and film, trying to get that point across that we've got to stop putting ourselves in these positions," Matta said. "We've got to find a way not to dig ourselves in that hole if at all possible."
But as bad as things are right now — and yes, they are bad — Ohio State players and coaches continue to say they are not discouraged. The Buckeyes feel they're close to getting over the hump. The next step, of course, is winning one of these close games.
“We know we haven’t been playing our best basketball so we’ve just got to keep fighting," junior guard Kam Williams said. "Having a positive mindset can contribute to a lot of things and not just on the basketball court but in life in general. I feel like when you have a positive mindset it opens your mind to new things."
"So just keep having that positive attitude, keep attacking. ... We know the code is eventually going to get cracked because as I said before, it’s not like we’re playing 40 minutes of bad basketball. We have bad stretches and we also have good stretches and just, unfortunately, the bad stretches are outweighing the good stretches so I feel like once we find that consistency of the good stretches we’ll be fine.”
The recent slide has Ohio State all the way down to No. 48 in KenPom. The Buckeyes, who were carried by their defense in the nonconference, now rank just 40th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.1 points per 100 possessions). Ohio State's offense has been inconsistent all year; the Buckeyes rank just 85th in the country there (109.3 points per 100 possessions).
If there's been an individual bright spot this season for Ohio State, it's the play of junior center Trevor Thompson. Against the Gophers, Thompson recorded his fifth double of the season (15 points, 15 rebounds) and he's averaging 10.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game this season.
How It Plays Out
Even before Ohio State's struggles, this was always going to be a difficult game for the Buckeyes to win. Wisconsin has a history of playing exceptionally well at the Kohl Center and the Badgers are undefeated at home this season.
It feels like Ohio State is close to breaking through, but it's hard to envision this being the game in which that happens. The Badgers are big favorites, and right now, they should be.
KenPom gives Wisconsin an 84 percent chance to win and predicts an 11-point win for the home team. I'm thinking this game might be close for a half, but the Badgers pull away in the second half to win comfortably. The Buckeyes will have to wait for another chance at their first Big Ten win.
Tim's prediction: Wisconsin 74, Ohio State 65
