Ohio State's margin for error is all but gone.
That's what happens with an 0–4 start to the Big Ten season. The Buckeyes can no longer afford losses in games they could or should win.
Sunday is one of those as Ohio State hosts Northwestern. The matchup with the Wildcats begins a series of toss-up games for the Buckeyes, and if they want to get back into the thick of the already-cloudy Big Ten race, they need to win the majority.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern (15-4, 4-2 B1G) | Value City Arena | 1 p.m. | BTN |
“The position that we’re in right now we can’t take anything for granted no matter who we’re playing. It really doesn’t matter if it’s Northwestern or the team that’s in first for the Big Ten right now," senior forward Marc Loving said. "We feel like we’re striding in the right direction right now and we need to keep our momentum rolling because it’s not about our opponent it’s about us getting better.”
This isn't the Northwestern team many are used to seeing, however. Under the direction of Chris Collins, the Wildcats have a legitimate shot to make the NCAA tournament for the first time in school history.
Earning a victory will be far from easy for Ohio State, but a win is something the Buckeyes certainly need. It would go a long way at the end of the season.
Let's break down Sunday's matchup between Ohio State and Northwestern a little further.
Opponent Breakdown
It's one of college basketball's least-kept secrets: Northwestern has never made the NCAA tournament in school history. But after a 15–4 start to this season and a 4–2 mark in the Big Ten, many believe this will be the year.
And it certainly feels like, barring a second-half collapse, that will be the case. The Wildcats are really good.
“I think they’re very talented and playing at a very high level, obviously," Buckeyes head coach Thad Matta said. "They execute well. [Bryant] McIntosh at the point has a great feel for running it and they’ve got guys who can really shoot the basketball. They can stretch you out and they’re very sound defensively.”
Led by the three-headed attack of Scottie Lindsey, Vic Law and McIntosh, Northwestern enters Sunday's matchup with Ohio State ranked No. 30 in Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings. The Wildcats are 38th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (113.4 points per 100 possessions) and 45th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (95.5 points per 100 possessions).
Lindsey leads the way offensively as the junior guard averages a team-high 15.8 points per game to go along with 4.4 rebounds per contest. Law, who missed all of last season due to injury, gives the Wildcats 14.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while McIntosh averages 12.3 points and a team-high 5.6 assists per contest.
Northwestern enters Sunday's contest as the winners of three-straight games. The Wildcats knocked off Nebraska and Rutgers on the road then defeated Iowa last Sunday. They've had a full week to prepare for this matchup with Ohio State.
"Traditionally, they cut pretty hard, screen well so just being aware off the ball and helping each other will be something that’s probably pretty key on film,” Loving said.
Buckeye Breakdown
Loving's layup with 0.6 seconds remaining Wednesday helped Ohio State knock off Nebraska and avoid a 1–5 start in Big Ten play. It was, by far, the Buckeyes' biggest play of the season to date.
Ohio State finally showed it could win a close game on the road in the conference. That's something it's going to need going forward if it wants to get back into this league race.
"These guys, we just have to keep grinding," Matta said. "Sunday’s game is just another great challenge. Hopefully that helps us in the end of another game that we’ve been through it now, that we’ve had success.”
Against the Huskers, Loving led the way for Ohio State with 15 points and 11 rebounds. But again, the Buckeyes had balance with four players finishing in double-figures and another one point shy. Jae'Sean Tate and JaQuan Lyle each scored 13, Trevor Thompson had 10 (and nine rebounds) while Kam Williams finished with nine points.
Ohio State once again fell behind by double-digits in the first half, a habit that certainly can't continue Sunday against Northwestern, but for the first time, the Buckeyes displayed the ability to erase a deficit on the road and finish down the stretch.
That's progress.
"It’s definitely a confidence booster," Loving said. "It’s definitely a step in the right direction because before we hadn’t been able to execute out of timeouts after drawing up a play and I was just happy to see that.”
How It Plays Out
Both Ohio State and Northwestern enter Sunday's matchup on brief winning streaks; the Buckeyes have two-straight wins while the Wildcats are winners of three in a row.
Ohio State has to have this one more, though, when it comes to the big picture. It's a home game for the Buckeyes against an NCAA tournament quality team. Ohio State doesn't have too many of those victories on its resume at the moment; the Buckeyes surely need this one.
Ohio State needs a 40-minute effort like it had in its win over Michigan State, though, not the 20-minute one it got against Nebraska on Wednesday night. The Wildcats are too good for the Buckeyes to fall behind early.
KenPom projects this game as a virtual toss-up, giving each team a 50 percent chance at winning. The final score projection, however, gives Northwestern a one-point win.
Ohio State, however, finds a way to get it done and wins its third-straight game.
Tim's prediction: Ohio State 72, Northwestern 69
